IRAN ANNOUNCES HORMUZ TOLLS AND THE IRGC THREATENS MORE CHOKEPOINTS

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, announced Iran will introduce maritime transit fees for Hormuz in 60 days, framing it as an assertion of sovereignty 4GDN Iran announces plans to bring in maritime fees for strait of Hormuz. This directly contradicts the US premise that the MOU restores free navigation. IRGC Quds Force commander Qaani went further, saying "Trump is trembling" and warning Americans should fear "Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, and many other locations" 1FOX Iran hardliner behind US deal warns Tehran won’t honor agreement if Trump fails to deliver. That is a senior IRGC commander, the day after a ceasefire was signed, advertising future leverage points. Ghalibaf also said Iran will not honor its commitments if the US fails to deliver, which is worth holding onto given that he is currently sitting across the table from JD Vance's delegation 1FOX Iran hardliner behind US deal warns Tehran won’t honor agreement if Trump fails to deliver.

Khamenei said he had "a different opinion" about the agreement but authorised it based on commitments from President Pezeshkian to reject excessive US demands, then described Trump as acting "out of desperation" 2TSN Leader’s Message on Iran-US MoU Released 10PTV Leader hails Iranian officials' efforts, says Trump desperate in reaching deal. That framing is doing specific domestic political work: it constrains what Iranian negotiators can actually concede in the 60-day window without blowing the cover Khamenei just provided them. The BBC's Jeremy Bowen and former Secretary Blinken both noted the same uncomfortable arithmetic: the deal returns the situation to roughly where it was before the war started, except Iran now has billions in sanctions relief incoming and a $300 billion reconstruction framework on the table 7BBC Bowen: US-Iran deal raises inescapable question of what the war was for.

Senate Armed Services chair Roger Wicker said the MOU "negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury" and called the reconstruction fund bigger than Obama's JCPOA "by a pittance" comparison (his words, inverted) 5FOX Top Senate Republican rips into Trump's Iran deal, says $300 billion makes Obama deal look like 'a pittance'. Senator Cassidy noted that before the war, Hormuz was open, sanctions were at maximum, and 13 American service members were alive 6TOI Some Republican hawks in US Senate, usually allied with Trump, break with him on Iran deal. Ted Cruz called it "giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us" 5FOX Top Senate Republican rips into Trump's Iran deal, says $300 billion makes Obama deal look like 'a pittance'. These are not backbenchers. Wicker and Cruz sit on Armed Services and Foreign Relations respectively, which puts them in position to complicate sanctions relief when the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act clock starts. Watch the Senate as closely as Switzerland.

Trump said publicly that Iran retaining some ballistic missiles is "okay" and called denying them missiles "a little bit unfair" 16TOI As deal takes force, Trump says ‘it’s okay’ for Iran to have some ballistic missiles. Dismantling that programme was a stated Israeli war aim from day one and a US-endorsed objective for weeks. This comment quietly defers the entire missile question to the 60-day talks, which is a significant concession that has been largely buried under the ceremony cancellation news. Israel's threat calculus is built around the missile threat. Make of that what you will.

An Israeli soldier was killed and seven wounded by a Hezbollah device in the Litani area Thursday, and Israeli drones struck a vehicle in Kfar Tebnit 11CRD Hezbollah deals heavy losses to invading troops as Israel rejects withdrawing from Lebanon. The IDF simultaneously published a new map of its "Forward Defense Line" running up to 10km inside Lebanon, stating it will remain "in accordance with operational needs" 11CRD Hezbollah deals heavy losses to invading troops as Israel rejects withdrawing from Lebanon. Netanyahu has said the security zone stays as long as Israeli security requires it 4GDN Iran announces plans to bring in maritime fees for strait of Hormuz. Iran's reading of the MOU is that a Lebanon ceasefire is non-negotiable and integral to the agreement 13CRD Iran, US sign Islamabad MoU to end war on all fronts, reopen Hormuz. These two positions are irreconcilable, and the fighting has not paused. One significant Israeli escalation in Lebanon is the cleanest near-term mechanism for collapsing the whole thing.