ISRAEL NEARLY BLEW THE DEAL AND TRUMP PUBLICLY SAID SO

Hezbollah fired three drones into northern Israel Sunday morning, no casualties. Israel responded by striking a building in Beirut's Dahiyeh district it described as a Hezbollah command center. 10TOI IDF strikes Hezbollah target in Beirut after 3 drones hit northern Israel Trump called the original provocation "very small and meaningless" and said the Israeli strike "should not have happened" given how close a deal was. 1BBM Israeli military says Hezbollah targets struck in Beirut Axios reported Trump told Netanyahu, with an expletive, that he had no judgment, and that the strike had "delayed the signing by a few hours." 2GDN ‘Let’s not blow it’: Trump calls for restraint after Israel launches fresh airstrikes on Beirut An Iranian official summarized the problem neatly: "If this rabid dog is not controlled, it will bite your leg before the ink is dry on the agreement." 5CRD Iran warns ‘no point’ in deal with US if Israel remains unrestrained That is not rhetoric. That is an accurate description of what just happened.

Lead Iranian negotiator Ghalibaf posted that the strike proved "America either lacks the will to fulfil its commitments or the ability to do so." 2GDN ‘Let’s not blow it’: Trump calls for restraint after Israel launches fresh airstrikes on Beirut The SNSC secretary said a response was "forthcoming" 4AJE Trump condemns Israel’s attack on Beirut, says Iran deal still close and a deputy joint command general said the attack "will not go unanswered." 2GDN ‘Let’s not blow it’: Trump calls for restraint after Israel launches fresh airstrikes on Beirut And yet neither side actually walked. The structural problem is undeniable now: Iran's position requires a ceasefire covering Lebanon as part of any deal, the US told Iran it would provide guarantees on Israel's behalf, and then Israel struck Beirut while those guarantees were being negotiated. 7MHR Final decision on MoU btw Iran-US under discussion in Iran Whether Iran retaliates militarily in the next 48 hours is the single most important variable right now. Last time Israel struck Beirut, Iran fired ballistic missiles at an Israeli air base before both sides stood down. 10TOI IDF strikes Hezbollah target in Beirut after 3 drones hit northern Israel

While Iranian hardliners accuse Tehran of capitulating, senior Israeli officials are furious the deal doesn't go nearly far enough. Multiple figures told Ynet that Trump has "screwed" Israel by producing an agreement with no nuclear dismantlement, no missile limits, and no rollback of Iran's regional network. 6RTN ‘Trump screwed us:’ Israeli officials fume over emerging Iran peace deal, media One called it "a catastrophe." Netanyahu publicly expressed "appreciation" for Trump's commitments, which is the polite version. The private version, per Axios, involved Trump yelling at him. 2GDN ‘Let’s not blow it’: Trump calls for restraint after Israel launches fresh airstrikes on Beirut Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir both publicly called for Sunday's Beirut strike before it happened 11AAM 7 killed as Israeli army launches airstrikes on Beirut, southern Lebanon in new ceasefire violation, meaning the political coalition pushing for escalation inside Israel's cabinet is intact and not going anywhere.

The internal Iranian debate is unusually exposed right now. Hardline MP Ghazanfari called the claim that "Iran won" a "blatant lie," while the brother-in-law of former president Raisi called the deal a "catastrophic capitulation." 3GDN Iranian hardliners in vociferous push to reject proposed peace deal with US A negotiating team adviser responded with a 14-point audio rebuttal insisting the deal beats the 2015 agreement, Iran keeps Hormuz fee collection rights, and the US has never before offered guarantees on Israel's behalf. 7MHR Final decision on MoU btw Iran-US under discussion in Iran The fact that an official felt compelled to record a 14-point audio defense of the deal tells you the internal approval process is genuinely contested. Meanwhile, Iranian markets are running well ahead of any signed agreement: the Tehran Stock Exchange hit an all-time high Sunday and the rial strengthened sharply, even as Tehran residents noted that food prices that "tripled over weeks and months will not get any cheaper when the dollar goes down a bit." 8AJE Anticipation, pushback in Iran as mediators work to finalise deal with US

The IAEA director general publicly called for the agency to be included in verifying implementation 12SPK IAEA Chief Calls for Agency's Involvement in US-Iran Nuclear Deal, which is notable because it suggests the IAEA hasn't been formally written into the verification architecture yet. Iran has sealed and booby-trapped its enriched uranium cache with mines in recent weeks 15CNN Exclusive: Iran sealed uranium cache and placed mines amid fears of US operation to seize material | CNN Politics, making physical retrieval more complex and dangerous than it was a month ago. The draft text commits Iran to not building nuclear weapons and defers the disposal question to a 60-day follow-on process 3GDN Iranian hardliners in vociferous push to reject proposed peace deal with US, but what "disposal" actually means given mined tunnels and collapsed access points is a technical problem with no solution currently on the table. The deal's existence and its enforceability are two different things, and right now only one of them is close.