LEBANON NEARLY KILLED THE DEAL AND MAY STILL

Hezbollah struck an Israeli tank near Kfar Tebnit just after midnight, killing all four crew including the battalion commander 11TOI 4-person IDF tank crew, including battalion chief, killed by Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Israel responded with strikes on over 150 targets killing at least 47 people 6AAM Trump says US must keep Netanyahu 'a little bit sane' on Lebanon, Iran pulled its negotiators, and the Switzerland talks were cancelled before a single session occurred 1GDN Israel and Hezbollah agree to renew ceasefire after flareup of violence. A new ceasefire was declared at 4pm local time after Trump publicly told Netanyahu to be "more responsible" and claimed he keeps Israel "a little bit sane," which is a remarkable thing to say about an ally on the record 6AAM Trump says US must keep Netanyahu 'a little bit sane' on Lebanon. The more durable problem: Iran has now established that Israeli action in Lebanon stops diplomacy, which hands anyone willing to shoot at Israeli forces a practical veto over the entire 60-day process.

Pakistan's National Hydrographic Office issued a formal navigational warning Friday after a confirmed mine was found in the strait 5AAM Pakistan warns ships after mine reported in Strait of Hormuz. Intertanko says the main channel is simply closed and normal operations will not resume in 2026, with ships currently squeezing along a narrow, shallow Omani coastal route 13GDN Normal shipping will not resume in strait of Hormuz until 80 mines cleared. Traffic has recovered to 25 commercial crossings on June 18, the highest since April, but that is against a pre-war baseline of 130 per day 7CRD Iran's Persian Gulf authority 'waives' transit fees for 60 days as Hormuz traffic soars. Until there is a named demining operation with actual naval assets, insurance markets will not normalise and the pump price relief Western governments promised their publics stays theoretical.

A former senior Treasury OFAC official told Fox News that Iran's construction sector was formally designated as IRGC-controlled by the State Department in both 2020 and May 2025, creating sanctions exposure for any investor who touches it 10FOX Trump's $300B Iran investment fund may be 'close to impossible' due to IRGC sanctions law, expert warns. Executive waivers can work around that, but they expire every 180 days, which is not a timeline that attracts serious long-term capital 10FOX Trump's $300B Iran investment fund may be 'close to impossible' due to IRGC sanctions law, expert warns. A durable fix requires Congress, and the Republican senators already calling this the worst foreign policy blunder in decades control the relevant committees 10FOX Trump's $300B Iran investment fund may be 'close to impossible' due to IRGC sanctions law, expert warns. The fund is the primary economic incentive keeping Iran engaged for 60 days of nuclear talks. If it cannot be delivered, the architecture of the deal starts to look decorative.

The JCPOA ran to 160 pages with specific nuclear benchmarks and staged sanctions relief tied to verified compliance 9TOI How Trump’s 14-point Iran deal compares with Obama’s 160-page nuclear agreement. The MOU is one and a half pages, provides upfront economic relief, and defers all the nuclear specifics to a negotiation that has not yet started 9TOI How Trump’s 14-point Iran deal compares with Obama’s 160-page nuclear agreement. AIPAC stated publicly that the MOU does not meet Trump's own stated war objectives 14TOI Jewish groups push back against Trump’s Iran deal, but for now more quietly than in 2015. The Jewish lobby groups pushing back are doing so more quietly than in 2015 given the political climate, but their substantive objections are essentially identical 14TOI Jewish groups push back against Trump’s Iran deal, but for now more quietly than in 2015. Make of that what you will.

The IRGC sent a formal message to the Supreme Leader saying the confrontation "compelled the US to retreat from its earlier positions" 3AAM Iran parliament, IRGC, army back leadership’s conditions in US deal, warn against violations, while the Iranian army said its forces remain "on trigger" 3AAM Iran parliament, IRGC, army back leadership’s conditions in US deal, warn against violations. That is not contradictory from Tehran's view; it is their opening position for 60 days of talks. In Israel, a Channel 12 poll found trust in Trump collapsed from 62 to 21 percent in a single week, and only 11 percent of respondents said Israel won the war 8CRD Large majority of Israelis say 'no trust' toward Trump after Iran MoU: Poll. Vance's response to Israeli critics was blunt: "You're a country of 9 million people. You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have" 8CRD Large majority of Israelis say 'no trust' toward Trump after Iran MoU: Poll. That quote is going to travel.