TRUMP AND IRAN DESCRIBE DIFFERENT DEALS

Trump posted that Hormuz would be "open to all" the moment the deal is signed. 1BBC US-Iran deal scheduled to be signed on Sunday, says Trump Araghchi said Iran and Oman will jointly administer the strait under a framework they issue together. 4RTN Iranian drones downed in Hormuz, US On the nuclear side, Trump says the deal builds "a wall to no nuclear weapon." 2AJE Trump says Iran deal to be signed tomorrow, contradicting Iranian official Araghchi says the memorandum only launches a 60-day negotiating process on the nuclear file, and Iran's position is that any highly enriched uranium can only be diluted inside Iran. 2AJE Trump says Iran deal to be signed tomorrow, contradicting Iranian official 12PTV FM outlines contours of proposed MoU, says diplomacy’s role is to consolidate battlefield gains A 14-point draft circulating from a source close to Iran's negotiating team explicitly removes missiles and proxy support from the agenda entirely. 7MHR What do we know about details of anticipated Iran-US MoU? These aren't negotiating-table hairsplitting. They are different descriptions of what is being agreed.

Iran insists any memorandum must include a ceasefire on all fronts, Lebanon included. 5AJE Iran war day 106: US and Iran say deal close but Lebanon fighting continues 12PTV FM outlines contours of proposed MoU, says diplomacy’s role is to consolidate battlefield gains Israel is not a party to these talks, has said it won't withdraw, and on Saturday issued forced displacement orders covering 24 Lebanese towns while conducting strikes that killed at least five people. 6AJE Five killed as Israel hits south Lebanon, issues forced displacement orders Netanyahu was reportedly told by Trump after the fact that this was an excellent deal and it was time to end the war, and "didn't say much." 11TOI Senior US official: Pending deal ‘leads to’ Washington getting Iran’s enriched uranium Israel's defence minister simultaneously demanded the final deal require Iran to dismantle enrichment infrastructure, cap missile production, and end proxy support, none of which are in the current text. 10TOI Iran MOU would cap self-defeating ceasefire for Trump, marks huge problem for Israel The Lebanon clause Iran needs and the Lebanon reality on the ground are not in the same zip code.

CENTCOM shot down multiple Iranian one-way attack drones targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, 4RTN Iranian drones downed in Hormuz, US 8SPK US Shot Down Several Drones Allegedly Launched by Iran - CENTCOM while both sides were ostensibly hours from signing a deal to reopen that same strait. Iran hasn't said who authorised the launches or whether they were authorised at all. The options are: rogue action, last-minute leverage, or evidence that the Hormuz closure isn't uniformly controlled from Tehran. None of those readings makes the signing easier.

Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar formally told Secretary Rubio that the deaths of Indian sailors killed when the US Navy struck a tanker in the Gulf of Oman are not justified. 9SPK India Foreign Minister Expresses Protest to Rubio Over US Strikes on Ships in Gulf of Oman India's MEA had already summoned the US chargé d'affaires in New Delhi. This is no longer a bureaucratic complaint, it's a named senior-level dispute between two governments, arriving the week before a G7 meeting. It won't be quietly managed from here.

Brent dropped to $87.33 on deal optimism, 16APW World shares surge after big Wall Street gains on hopes for an end to the Iran war the S&P logged its 10th winning week in 11, and the VIX hit its lowest reading of the conflict. Equity traders are pricing de-escalation as nearly certain. Options traders are not: the oil volatility index (OVX) is still at 54.10, meaning protection against a price spike is still expensive. Tanker stocks are up nearly 11% over the past month, which is a strange move if Hormuz is about to reopen. The number underneath all of this is Cushing: US crude storage is at 21.6 million barrels and falling, 15CNN The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom. The oil market is about to hit a tipping point with diesel at its lowest since 2003. If the deal slips another week, the price reversal won't be gradual.