ISRAEL NEARLY BLEW THE DEAL. TRUMP LOST HIS TEMPER. THE TALKS SURVIVED, BARELY.

• Iranian hardliners are mounting a vocal domestic campaign against the deal, and the internal debate is more exposed than it has been at any point in the war. Hardline MP Kamran Ghazanfari called the claim that "Iran won" a "blatant lie," while Meysam Nili, brother-in-law of former president Ebrahim Raisi, called the deal a "catastrophic capitulation" 3GDN Iranian hardliners in vociferous push to reject proposed peace deal with US. An adviser to the negotiating team, Mehdi Mohammadi, released a detailed audio rebuttal insisting the deal is better for Iran than the 2015 nuclear agreement, that Iran retains Hormuz fee collection rights, and that the US has never before agreed to provide guarantees on Israel's behalf 7MHR Final decision on MoU btw Iran-US under discussion in Iran. The fact that an official felt compelled to release a 14-point audio defence of the deal to domestic critics tells you the internal approval process is genuinely contested, not resolved.

• The deal's nuclear provisions remain the most consequential unresolved element. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi publicly called for the agency to be included in verifying implementation 12SPK IAEA Chief Calls for Agency's Involvement in US-Iran Nuclear Deal, which is notable because it suggests the IAEA has not yet been formally written into the verification architecture. Iran has sealed and booby-trapped its enriched uranium cache with mines in recent weeks, according to CNN's reporting 15CNN Exclusive: Iran sealed uranium cache and placed mines amid fears of US operation to seize material | CNN Politics, making physical retrieval significantly more complex and dangerous than it was a month ago. The draft text commits Iran to not building or acquiring nuclear weapons and defers the disposal question to a 60-day follow-on process 3GDN Iranian hardliners in vociferous push to reject proposed peace deal with US, but what "disposal" means in practice, given mined tunnels and collapsed access points, is a technical problem that has no current solution on the table.

• Anadolu Agency reported a total of seven killed across Beirut and southern Lebanon in Sunday's Israeli strikes, a figure higher than the three deaths reported by Lebanese Civil Defence for the Dahiyeh strike alone 11AAM 7 killed as Israeli army launches airstrikes on Beirut, southern Lebanon in new ceasefire violation. The discrepancy likely reflects additional strikes in the Tyre and Sidon districts that received less international coverage. Israel's Operation Eternal Darkness continues to expand geographically, with IDF forces pressing north into Lebanon regardless of ceasefire language 16ABC How Israel's operation 'Eternal Darkness' in southern Lebanon is expanding. Iranian hardliner IRGC-affiliated media organ Fars reported that Iranian officials were reluctant to sign the deal on Sunday partly because it was Trump's birthday, telling readers "have some honour" 8AJE Anticipation, pushback in Iran as mediators work to finalise deal with US. That is a minor detail that captures the texture of how fractured internal Iranian politics currently is.

• Iran's domestic markets are pricing in a deal that has not happened. The Tehran Stock Exchange hit a new all-time high of 4.82 million index points on Sunday 8AJE Anticipation, pushback in Iran as mediators work to finalise deal with US, and the rial strengthened to below 1.68 million per dollar, down from an all-time low of 1.9 million last month. Iranian civilians, however, are less convinced: one Tehran resident told Al Jazeera that food prices that have "tripled over weeks and months will not get any cheaper when the dollar goes down a bit" 8AJE Anticipation, pushback in Iran as mediators work to finalise deal with US. Markets are running ahead of reality on both sides of this conflict.

The market snapshot is from June 12, before Sunday's events, so treat these figures as pre-crisis baseline rather than current read. What they show is a market that had already priced in significant de-escalation: Brent at $87.33, down from $105 in mid-May, VIX at 17.68, and the S&P 500 near its recent highs. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 54.10 is the dissenting instrument. Options traders were still paying for oil price spike protection even as the spot price fell, and Sunday's events vindicated that caution. Tanker stocks told the same story: Frontline at $39.08, up nearly 11% over the past month, is a strange place to be if you genuinely believe Hormuz reopens this week. If Sunday's Beirut strike pushed the signing back by even a few days, the gap between what equities priced and what actually happened will show up in the next trading session. Watch whether Brent bounces back toward $90 when Asian markets open Monday.

Sunday's events have a specific political consequence for Western governments that is worth naming. Every Western leader who has publicly endorsed the deal's imminent arrival now has to either re-endorse it or quietly stop saying anything. The UK government, already managing a contracting economy and rising energy bills, has invested diplomatic capital in the deal resolving quickly. The US administration is in the more exposed position: Trump personally declared the signing would happen Sunday, on his birthday, then had to publicly condemn the ally whose actions prevented it. That is not a comfortable position for a president whose domestic political case for the war rests on claiming it was managed successfully. If pump prices in the US reverse the modest declines of recent weeks, the political cost becomes concrete and immediate rather than abstract.