BOTH SIDES CLAIM THE OTHER SHOT FIRST IN THE OVERNIGHT GULF EXCHANGE

The US hit an Iranian tanker near Hormuz and struck a ground control station and communications tower south of Qeshm Island 5AJE Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain hit: Is the war in the Gulf escalating again? 8AJE What’s happening on day 96 of Iran war as US, Iran engage in new attacks. Iran says the tanker strike came first and was the trigger; CENTCOM says it was responding to Iranian drone and missile activity against civilian shipping 7AJE Iranian drone attack kills one in Kuwait after US strikes Qeshm Island. Neither account is going to be independently verified anytime soon, which is now a standard feature of this war rather than an anomaly. What is not disputed: Iran fired back at the Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain and Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, CENTCOM says nothing was hit, and satellite imagery cited by Mehr News appears to show a destroyed hangar at Ali al-Salem 2MHR Any hostile act to be met with immediate, decisive response 6CRD Iran says Bahrain, Kuwait ‘bear direct responsibility’ for new IRGC strikes.

A missile strike took out Terminal 1, killed one person (an Indian national, confirmed by New Delhi) 5AJE Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain hit: Is the war in the Gulf escalating again?, injured at least 63, and suspended all flights 7AJE Iranian drone attack kills one in Kuwait after US strikes Qeshm Island. There is a real possibility some of the damage came from failed Kuwaiti interceptor missiles rather than Iranian rounds landing on target 6CRD Iran says Bahrain, Kuwait ‘bear direct responsibility’ for new IRGC strikes, which would mean Iran was aiming at military facilities and missed, not deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure. Either way, the airport is closed and Kuwait's foreign ministry issued unusually blunt condemnation language. Iran's Foreign Ministry then warned Kuwait and Bahrain they "bear direct responsibility" for hosting US forces 6CRD Iran says Bahrain, Kuwait ‘bear direct responsibility’ for new IRGC strikes. Tehran is not apologising; it is pressuring Gulf states to reconsider their basing arrangements.

Two of Iraq's most powerful Iran-backed factions, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Imam Ali Brigades, announced they will hand weapons to Iraqi state authorities 12TOI Powerful Iran-backed militias claim they’ll start handing in weapons to Iraqi authorities. That follows a similar announcement from Muqtada al-Sadr's militia last week, and comes under pressure from new PM Ali al-Zaidi, who wants a state monopoly on arms. Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba have refused outright 12TOI Powerful Iran-backed militias claim they’ll start handing in weapons to Iraqi authorities, so this is not a clean sweep. But the direction of Iraqi domestic politics has shifted in a way that matters for the post-war question of how much proxy leverage Iran actually retains there.

IAEA Director General Grossi called the attack on the UAE nuclear plant "extremely grave" and noted the perpetrators were clearly technically sophisticated 13TOI IAEA offers UAE support after recent ‘carefully targeted’ drone attack on nuclear plant. One of three drones got through and cut external power; the plant shut down safely, but Grossi is now personally briefing Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia on the risks to neighbouring populations from any accident at Barakah or Iran's Bushehr. Official statements have been reassuring. Grossi's tour suggests the margin was not as comfortable as those statements implied.

Iran's inflation has hit its highest level since the 1940s 15APW Inflation in Iran reaches highest point since World War II, which creates genuine pressure on Tehran to deal, and also genuine political pressure not to be seen capitulating to the country that caused it. Both things are true simultaneously, which is why reading the economic pressure as straightforwardly pro-deal is too simple. Separately: the Pentagon has declared its press office a classified space and barred journalists from physical access 16APW Pentagon bars journalists from press office in latest move restricting access. The New York Times has sued twice in five months over access restrictions. This matters not as press-freedom hand-wringing but as a direct constraint on verifying things like CENTCOM's "no assets harmed" claims against the satellite imagery that keeps contradicting them.