THE BLOCKADE IS A TOLL BOOTH MOST DRIVERS ARE IGNORING

CENTCOM says it has turned back 13 ships since April 13. Meanwhile, TankerTrackers.com confirms nine million barrels moved from Gulf of Oman floating storage post-blockade, with another two million out just before enforcement started. 3CRD Iran ships 11m barrels of oil since launch of Washington's Hormuz blockade: Report Bloomberg's ship-tracking caught at least two US-sanctioned vessels entering the Persian Gulf Thursday through a channel between Larak and Qeshm islands, one of them a supertanker capable of carrying two million barrels, sailing in empty and awaiting instructions. 3CRD Iran ships 11m barrels of oil since launch of Washington's Hormuz blockade: Report Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine clarified the blockade covers traffic to and from Iranian ports, not the Strait of Hormuz broadly, which is precisely the gap Iran is driving tankers through. 7SPK Top US General Says Navy Blockading Iranian Coastline, Not Strait of Hormuz Trump posted on Truth Social that Iranian boats approaching the blockade would be "immediately ELIMINATED" using the same tactics applied to drug runners in the Caribbean, which is fine rhetoric until you note the IRGC Navy has an estimated 800 to 900 small vessels carrying anti-ship missiles. 1FOX US eyes Iran fast boats with ‘kill’ tactics tested in Venezuela drug-boat strikes

Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran Wednesday carrying a new US message, and Al Jazeera's Pakistani sources say the odds of an agreement have "improved significantly." 14RTN Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks nearing breakthrough, media Options on the table include shipping Iran's 440kg enriched uranium stockpile to a third country or diluting it below 3 percent. 14RTN Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks nearing breakthrough, media Russia's offer to host the stockpile is still technically live, per Kremlin spokesman Peskov, though the US had previously rejected it. 18RTN US turned down Russian offer to take Iran’s enriched uranium, Kremlin Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said Thursday no dates for round two have been set, and Trump simultaneously called the conflict "close to being settled" and said a 20-year enrichment moratorium isn't long enough. 14RTN Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks nearing breakthrough, media Make of that what you will.

Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire starting Thursday at 21:00 GMT. 2SPK Israel, Lebanon Agree to Begin 10-Day Ceasefire on Thursday - Trump Netanyahu said Israeli forces stay in their positions in southern Lebanon, and the Israeli cabinet did not vote on it. 2SPK Israel, Lebanon Agree to Begin 10-Day Ceasefire on Thursday - Trump The IDF chief of staff confirmed Wednesday that plans for continued fighting on both the Lebanese front and against Iran are approved and ready, with Air Force planes "armed and ready" with targets loaded. 19IHY IDF chief: Israeli Air Force ready for immediate strike, including in Iran Hezbollah has taken 1,700 dead since the campaign began and has not agreed to disarm, so the first 24 hours will be the real indicator of whether this is genuine de-escalation or an operational breather dressed up as diplomacy.

The Pentagon has opened discussions with General Motors and Ford about retooling factories for weapons production. 4RTN Pentagon taps US carmakers for weapons production, WSJ Over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles have been fired in 49 days against a pre-war inventory estimated at 4,000 to 4,500. 4RTN Pentagon taps US carmakers for weapons production, WSJ WarSpend puts the total bill at nearly $48 billion since February 28, roughly $2 billion per day, and Trump is requesting a $1.5 trillion defence budget for fiscal 2027. 4RTN Pentagon taps US carmakers for weapons production, WSJ The Senate voted 52 to 47 to block a bill that would have required congressional approval for further strikes, the fourth time Congress has effectively signed off by doing nothing, with the 60-day War Powers deadline arriving later this month. 16SPK Senate Blocks Move to Halt US War Against Iran

IEA chief Fatih Birol told AP that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so" of jet fuel left, with around 75 percent of European jet fuel imports coming from the Middle East, and warned of possible flight cancellations "soon." 6AJE Jet fuel shortage: Why Iran war could ground flights in Europe This lands directly into the start of summer travel season. In the UK, the government is planning for worst-case chicken and pork shortages by summer, centred on carbon dioxide supply disruptions used in slaughter and food preservation. 11BBC UK prepares for food shortages in worst case scenario as Iran war continues The FAO is warning that fertiliser shipments stuck in the strait will hit the next planting cycle, meaning the food price impact arrives late 2026 and compounds into 2027. 20ABC Strait of Hormuz blockade could turn into global agrifood crisis The consumer damage is structural and slow, which is exactly the kind that doesn't show up in markets until it's already arrived.