THE MOU IS GONE AND BOTH SIDES HAVE BURIED IT

• Iraq signed 48 deals with US companies worth over $60 billion during Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's Washington visit, including an agreement to reconstruct the dormant Iraq-Syria crude oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Syria's Mediterranean port at Baniyas, with Chevron leading the project 8AJE Iraq signs 48 deals with US companies during PM’s visit to Washington. US Ambassador to Turkiye Tom Barrack said the pipeline would "make the Strait of Hormuz an afterthought" 8AJE Iraq signs 48 deals with US companies during PM’s visit to Washington. The strategic intent is obvious: build a route that bypasses Iranian leverage entirely. The problem is timeline. This pipeline takes years to build. It does nothing for the refined fuel shortage developing right now.

• The UAE threat deserves attention on its own. Iran's warning to evacuate Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports is a direct threat to the world's most important aviation hub and the Gulf's primary logistics and financial centre 6YNT Iran widens regional offensive, putting airports and power plants in crosshairs. The UAE has hosted US forces quietly throughout this conflict while maintaining public neutrality. If Tehran follows through, it would represent the most significant escalation of the war's geographic scope yet. Single source via Fars News Agency, attributed to an unnamed military source. Confidence: low on imminent action, high on the signal being intentional.

• A classified US nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia is sitting unsigned on Trump's desk, tentatively allowing Riyadh to enrich uranium without full international safeguards 11CNN Nuclear deal that would permit uranium enrichment by Saudi Arabia in limbo awaiting Trump admin sign off. The agreement was negotiated in October 2025 but has not been sent to Congress as federal law requires. CNN reports the Iran war is part of the reason for the delay: signing a deal that gives Saudi Arabia a potential path to nuclear weapons while ostensibly fighting Iran to prevent exactly that is politically incoherent 11CNN Nuclear deal that would permit uranium enrichment by Saudi Arabia in limbo awaiting Trump admin sign off. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously said publicly he would pursue nuclear weapons if Iran gets the bomb. The deal's existence, at this moment, is a significant piece of context for the regional nuclear proliferation picture.

• Lebanese President Joseph Aoun departed Beirut for Washington on Saturday to meet Trump on July 21, with Lebanon-Israel framework negotiations and support for the Lebanese Armed Forces on the agenda 10AAM Lebanese president to meet Trump on July 21 to discuss talks with Israel. The Lebanon track is moving in exactly the opposite direction from the Iran track: quiet, US-mediated, with an Israeli withdrawal framework already signed. The contrast is useful. When Washington wants a deal to happen, it can make one happen. The Iran situation tells you something different about Washington's current intentions.

• Russia's refining capacity is between 25% and 45% offline following Ukrainian strikes on refineries and ports, forcing Moscow to ban diesel exports last week 17ABC Why oil prices are about to surge. Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter. With Russia's diesel off global markets simultaneously with Hormuz effectively closed, the refined products shortage is now a compound problem with two independent causes. This is not a war-premium spike. This is a structural supply crunch that does not resolve when a ceasefire is signed.

The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) jumped from 55.91 to 60.02 as of the July 17 close, its highest level in weeks, while Brent rose to $88.10, up another 3.8% on the week [[market data]]. Those two numbers moving together tell you markets are not just pricing in higher oil. They are pricing in the possibility of something materially worse. RBOB Gasoline at $3.39 is up 20% from a month ago. Heating oil at $4.07 is 30% above its mid-June level, which lands directly on European households heading into autumn. The genuinely alarming number is in the ABC analysis: the crude glut is masking a severe refined products shortage, and that is the part of the chain that actually reaches consumers at the pump and in their heating bills 17ABC Why oil prices are about to surge. The VIX jumped from 16.73 to 18.77 in a single session, and the S&P 500 dropped 76 points. Gold is holding above $4,000. Markets are beginning to price a scenario where the MoU does not come back.

RBOB Gasoline at $3.39 wholesale means US pump prices are heading toward levels not seen since the war's March peak. Heating oil at $4.07, up 30% since the MoU was signed, is the number that will matter most to European households by September. The refined products story is worse than the crude story: the ABC analysis identifies an incipient shortage of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel driven by both the Hormuz closure and Russian refinery destruction, and notes that markets are being lulled by a crude price that does not reflect the broken downstream chain 17ABC Why oil prices are about to surge. Kuwait's airport temporary closure is a preview of the disruption that hits if Iran follows through on its UAE airport warnings. Any significant disruption to Dubai International would ripple through global aviation routing in hours. UK and European travellers with connections through the Gulf should be watching this.