IRAN'S HOUTHI CARD, AND WHY IT CHANGES THE ENERGY CALCULUS ENTIRELY

• US strikes hit areas around Tehran for a second consecutive day, along with Bandar Abbas, Greater Tunb Island, and multiple provincial sites 9GDN US intensifies attacks on Iran as Tehran hits back at Gulf states 12AJE US launches new attacks on Iran as Tehran targets Gulf sites. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said its evening wave targeted Iranian command centres, air defence sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities. Iran's Health Ministry reports at least 35 killed and more than 300 wounded since fighting resumed last week 12AJE US launches new attacks on Iran as Tehran targets Gulf sites. A cancer hospital in southwestern Iran was evacuated due to strikes nearby, which Iran's foreign ministry called a "barbaric attack" 9GDN US intensifies attacks on Iran as Tehran hits back at Gulf states.

• Iraq suspended crude loading at all terminals after a drone struck a tanker in Basra without causing damage 9GDN US intensifies attacks on Iran as Tehran hits back at Gulf states. This is a significant escalation of the economic stakes: Iraq is not a party to this war, but its oil infrastructure is now at risk from Iranian drone activity in its own territory. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who is in Washington this week, pledged to disarm non-state armed groups during his visit 9GDN US intensifies attacks on Iran as Tehran hits back at Gulf states, even as Iraqi resistance faction Al-Nujaba Movement warned against energy deals with Washington 14CRD US, Iraq finalize major energy deal during Zaidi's first Washington visit. Zaidi's government is simultaneously signing a pipeline deal with Chevron and being targeted by Iran-aligned militias. That tension is not going away.

• The Iraq-US pipeline deal is bigger than it looks. A deal set to be signed Friday involves Iraq, Chevron, TI Capital, and Qatar's UCC to build a pipeline connecting Basra's oil fields to Turkey's Ceyhan port and Syria's Baniyas port 14CRD US, Iraq finalize major energy deal during Zaidi's first Washington visit. This is Washington attempting to construct an alternative export infrastructure for Iraqi oil that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely. If it ever gets built, it changes the strategic geography of the region permanently. The Houthi intercepted arms shipment passed through the exact same Iraq-Syria corridor this pipeline would use 3JPM Syria intercepts massive Hezbollah arms shipment hidden inside oil tanker from Iraq. That is not a coincidence worth ignoring.

• Vance publicly called out Israel's influence campaign, in detail, on the Joe Rogan Experience. He cited a Time Magazine investigation reporting that Brad Parscale, Trump's former campaign manager, was paid to run a digital influence operation targeting US conservatives to oppose the Iran deal 4AJE Vance says Israeli campaign tried to sway US opinion against Iran diplomacy 10CRD 'Go to hell': JD Vance accuses Israeli officials of efforts to keep war on Iran raging. Vance's precise words: "When I see there's a literal foreign influence campaign being funded to tank the very deal I was pursuing, my response is 'go to hell'" 10CRD 'Go to hell': JD Vance accuses Israeli officials of efforts to keep war on Iran raging. He also ruled out 150,000 ground troops for regime change, and said the Hormuz problem can only be resolved diplomatically 10CRD 'Go to hell': JD Vance accuses Israeli officials of efforts to keep war on Iran raging. This is the Vice President publicly splitting from the Prime Minister of the US's closest ally while a war is ongoing. Arab leaders are meanwhile privately telling Trump that Netanyahu is "an obstacle to realizing his vision" 1JPO Arab leaders tell Trump Netanyahu is an 'obstacle' to the president's Middle East plans - report. The US-Israel relationship is under visible, sustained pressure from inside the White House.

• Iran formally warned Gulf neighbours to stop hosting US forces, citing its legal right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter 5MHR Iran urges southern neighbours to block US attacks. Tehran's message to Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and others: you are legitimate targets as long as US forces operate from your soil. Iran already filed a 42-breach UN complaint against the US covering June 18 to July 13 13TTM Iran files formal UN complaint detailing dozens of US breaches of MoU. The Security Council will not act on it. But Iran is building an international legal record with every document it files, which tells you Tehran is thinking past the current fighting.

Brent is holding at $84.31, essentially flat from yesterday, which is the interesting signal. The market knows about the Tehran strikes, the Hormuz closure, the Houthi threat, and the Iraq terminal suspension, and it is not panicking. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has actually eased from 58.96 to 55.94, which suggests traders are treating the current situation as priced-in rather than accelerating. That complacency looks fragile given the Houthi Red Sea trigger that most market participants do not appear to have fully digested yet. RBOB Gasoline dropped slightly from $3.30 to $3.10 today, but it is still 9% above its level a week ago and heading for US pumps shortly. Gold is off its peak at $3,987, continuing a gradual retreat from $4,353 a month ago, which is unusual: falling gold during an intensifying war typically signals either dollar strength or forced selling elsewhere. The VIX at 16.58 is still historically calm. If the Houthi trigger gets pulled, these numbers will look very different by Monday.

US diesel is back above $5 a gallon according to the AAA, returning to its pre-MoU highs, and average gasoline is approaching $4, driven by the renewed fighting and a White House that, in the AAA's own description, moves markets "on whim" 8GDN US gas prices edge up again as US-Iran tensions heighten over strait of Hormuz. A year ago, diesel averaged $3.72. That dollar-and-a-quarter difference lands on every trucked consumer good in America. Brent at $84.31 is still below the war's peak, and the Guardian reports oil at around $81 at the pump-relevant wholesale level 8GDN US gas prices edge up again as US-Iran tensions heighten over strait of Hormuz, but the trajectory is upward and the Houthi risk, if it materialises, would push it sharply higher. Heating oil at $3.92 versus $3.16 in mid-June is the number European households should be watching as summer ends. The Iraq-US pipeline deal, if it proceeds, is a long-term answer to Hormuz dependency, but it will take years to build. Nothing about that helps anyone this autumn.