TEHRAN GETS HIT, AND THE MoU IS OFFICIALLY DEAD

• Trump is leaning toward escalation, with ground troops on the table. Axios and the Wall Street Journal both report that options presented to Trump in the Situation Room include intensified airstrikes, seizure of Iranian islands near Hormuz, and a strike on Pickaxe Mountain 4TOI Trump said leaning toward expanding military offensive against Iran, which he warns ‘better behave’. Trump reportedly walked back a previous plan to seize Kharg Island due to ground troop reluctance, but the island seizure option is back on the table in a different form. No final decision has been made 4TOI Trump said leaning toward expanding military offensive against Iran, which he warns ‘better behave’.

• JD Vance says Israel is running a covert influence campaign to kill the Iran deal. On The Joe Rogan Experience, Vance named a Time Magazine investigation citing Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) filings showing Trump's former 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale was paid $1.5 million per month by Havas, on behalf of Israel, to shape how the war is characterised online, including by AI systems 7AAM US’ Vance says foreign influence campaign funded to 'tank' Iran deal. Vance said elements within the Israeli government "want to continue the military campaign" and are actively working to derail negotiations he was pursuing. This is a sitting US Vice President publicly accusing an allied government of a covert influence operation. It is extraordinary and underreported.

• House Republicans unveiled a $95 billion supplemental spending package, with $73 billion earmarked for war funding and classified programs, $12 billion for agriculture, and $10 billion for election law changes requiring citizenship documentation to register to vote 13APW House Republicans unveil a $95 billion plan for the Iran war, farm aid and elections. The Budget Committee takes it up Thursday. Senate Democrats have already blocked the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a $1.15 trillion military budget bill, on a 50-46 procedural vote, citing lack of congressional oversight of the Iran war 15CRD US senators block debate on 2027 NDAA bill citing illegal war on Iran. The US is conducting a major active war without a supplemental appropriation. That is not sustainable past a few more months.

• Iran struck US aircraft carrier support and refueling platforms at Oman's Duqm port, prompting Oman to summon the Iranian ambassador and lodge a formal protest 12CRD How the Strait of Hormuz is testing the Iran - Oman alliance. Oman, Iran's most important diplomatic back-channel and the country that mediated the original ceasefire framework, is now formally lodging complaints against Iranian attacks on its soil. The Iran-Oman relationship, which has been a structural stabiliser in this conflict, is visibly fraying. That matters for any future negotiation pathway.

• An American citizen detained since 2024 was released by Iran. Trump called it a "gesture of goodwill" 4TOI Trump said leaning toward expanding military offensive against Iran, which he warns ‘better behave’. He also claimed Iran called him just before a Pennsylvania summit appearance to say they want to meet. That claim is uncorroborated by any other source 4TOI Trump said leaning toward expanding military offensive against Iran, which he warns ‘better behave’. Both details are being carried primarily by the Times of Israel. File under: things that could be true, might be positioning, and are impossible to verify at this hour.

Brent has quietly crept to $84.95, up about 7% from $79.25 a week ago, and the overnight strikes on Tehran have not yet been priced in. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 58.96 is still elevated, meaning traders are not treating this as a spike to fade. RBOB Gasoline futures are up from $2.96 a week ago to $3.30, a move that will land at the pump within days. The more interesting signal is what is not moving: the VIX fear index is at 15.67, remarkably calm for a night that included strikes on a capital city and a disabled tanker in a global shipping chokepoint. Either equity markets are pricing a rapid diplomatic breakthrough, or they are badly behind the curve. The S&P 500 crept up slightly. Defence ETF ITA is essentially flat. Frontline, the tanker stock, dipped slightly even as tanker risk obviously rose. Markets are not in panic mode. That probably changes if the Tehran strikes continue.

RBOB Gasoline futures at $3.30 versus $2.96 a week ago means US pump prices are heading higher in the next week to ten days. The heating oil figure, at $3.95 versus $3.22 in mid-June, is a 22% rise over four weeks that will compound into European autumn energy bills already under pressure. The agriculture basket (DBA) has climbed from $26.38 in mid-June to $27.98, a quiet signal that freight and fertiliser cost increases are beginning to move food prices. House Republicans' $95 billion supplemental package, if it passes, adds $60-plus billion to defence spending without offsets, which is an inflationary input on top of energy and food pressures already in the system 13APW House Republicans unveil a $95 billion plan for the Iran war, farm aid and elections. No Western government has announced emergency energy measures in the last 24 hours based on available sourcing, but the arithmetic of a sustained blockade at these oil and gasoline price levels is not one that stays invisible to voters through the autumn.