THE CIA SAYS THE WAR ISN'T WORKING. TRUMP IS THREATENING TO HIT A SITE THE BOMBS CAN'T REACH.

• Iran launched its 24th wave of Operation Nasr-2, claiming destruction of US radar and air defense systems in Bahrain and Kuwait, a Patriot battery at Al-Riffa rendered inoperable, drone hangars at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait struck, and US personnel killed at a compound in Jordan's Rukban area 4TTM Iran demonstrates unrivaled strike capability across region. The IRGC also claimed cruise missiles hit Amazon's central data infrastructure in Bahrain on the grounds it was "supporting US operations." That last claim is worth flagging: targeting civilian cloud infrastructure used by a military customer is a legal and escalatory threshold Iran is now crossing publicly 4TTM Iran demonstrates unrivaled strike capability across region. Single source via IRGC statements through Tehran Times.

• The Houthis moved to enforce their Saudi shipping blockade, and it is already producing real effects. Two oil tankers loaded with Saudi crude bound for China and India turned around at the mouth of the Red Sea on Tuesday rather than risk transit through Houthi-controlled waters 5GDN Houthis threaten to attack shipping tankers if they use Saudi Arabian ports on Red Sea. The Houthis claim six ships changed course. This matters enormously: Saudi oil exports have been the one major supply stream untouched by the Gulf disruption so far. If Bab el-Mandeb becomes as hostile as Hormuz, the dual chokepoint scenario that energy planners have been modelling as a worst case stops being a model 5GDN Houthis threaten to attack shipping tankers if they use Saudi Arabian ports on Red Sea 12CNN Nearly 100 US troops injured in last two weeks, Pentagon says, as strikes continue.

• A 10-day ceasefire proposal is still in play, with the Trump administration weighing it as a possible off-ramp, according to Axios 5GDN Houthis threaten to attack shipping tankers if they use Saudi Arabian ports on Red Sea. Rubio said Washington remains open to negotiations but "it has to be real" 5GDN Houthis threaten to attack shipping tankers if they use Saudi Arabian ports on Red Sea. Iran's Interior Minister made another visit to Pakistan, the primary back-channel 5GDN Houthis threaten to attack shipping tankers if they use Saudi Arabian ports on Red Sea. The proposal has not been rejected. It has also not been accepted. Both sides are striking each other while their diplomats keep the line open, which is either sophisticated parallel-track statecraft or a negotiating posture that collapses the moment one strike goes too far.

• The US has nearly 100 service members injured since July 7, a figure the Pentagon disclosed on Tuesday, with CNN separately reporting that the military has been slow to disclose injuries throughout the conflict 12CNN Nearly 100 US troops injured in last two weeks, Pentagon says, as strikes continue. The US is also increasing fighter jet numbers in the region, with dozens of aerial refuelling aircraft arriving in Israel 12CNN Nearly 100 US troops injured in last two weeks, Pentagon says, as strikes continue. The capability build-up and the casualty acknowledgement are happening in the same news cycle, which tells you the administration is preparing domestic opinion for something larger while simultaneously trying to manage the political cost of what has already happened.

• The Trump administration has tentatively agreed to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium without the full international safeguards standard required by non-proliferation agreements, according to CNN, citing sources and documents 6TTM US greenlights Saudi nuclear enrichment without safeguards: CNN. This deal, concluded in October 2025, has not been signed or sent to Congress, partly because the Iran war has made it politically toxic: you cannot simultaneously bomb Iran for its nuclear program and hand Saudi Arabia a pathway to enrichment without a legal fight on Capitol Hill. The contradiction is obvious and deliberate. Watch for this to surface in any congressional hearing on the war's broader regional consequences 6TTM US greenlights Saudi nuclear enrichment without safeguards: CNN.

Brent crossed $91 today, up more than $10 from mid-June, and the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is at 63.44, its highest point in this data set. Markets are not pricing a ceasefire. They are pricing a war that is getting structurally worse. The Houthi blockade enforcement is the variable that markets have not fully digested yet: if Saudi exports are genuinely disrupted through Bab el-Mandeb while Hormuz remains choked, the supply shock compounds in a way today's Brent price does not yet reflect.

The more interesting signal is gold at $4,085, up sharply from yesterday, while the gold-to-oil ratio continues compressing, now at 48.36 versus 54.52 a month ago. Oil is repricing faster than the traditional fear trade, which is a supply signal, not a panic signal. Tanker stocks tell the same story: Frontline is up nearly 3.5% today, because ships willing to run the gauntlet command extraordinary rates. Someone is getting rich on this war. It is not the sailors being offered six-month salary bonuses to make the crossing 9CRD Shipping firms offering sailors ‘massive bonuses’ to risk crossing Hormuz: Report.

Nearly 100 injured US service members in 15 days is a pace the Pentagon has been managing rhetorically, but it is becoming harder to contain. RBOB Gasoline wholesale is at $3.22 and heating oil at $4.03, both materially above June levels and still rising. The Houthi blockade enforcement of Saudi ports adds a new supply anxiety that will hit pump prices in Asia first but will reach European and American consumers through the same commodity pricing mechanism that has been grinding upward since February.

Southeast Asian nations, already among the hardest hit by Hormuz disruption, issued a formal joint statement through ASEAN foreign ministers on Tuesday expressing "serious concerns" about renewed hostilities and flagging agricultural supply chain and fertilizer access as acute vulnerabilities 12CNN Nearly 100 US troops injured in last two weeks, Pentagon says, as strikes continue. The Philippines declared a national emergency earlier this year over energy access. The dual-chokepoint scenario now materialising is the scenario those governments were most afraid of.