THE MOU IS GONE AND NEITHER SIDE IS PRETENDING OTHERWISE

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi formally announced Tehran has "suspended all commitments" under the Islamabad accord, citing US strikes on civilian infrastructure including a desalination plant near Jask that cut water to roughly 10,000 people 3TTM Iran halts MoU commitments over US violations7CRD US leaves 10,000 Iranians without drinking water following strike on desalination plant. General Mohsen Rezaei, senior military advisor to the supreme leader, said Iran had previously chosen not to hit US bases in Kuwait, but that restraint is now "inevitably" over 2TTM Leader’s military advisor: Iran will shift to full-scale war if US strikes continue. He named Kuwait specifically. Kuwait was struck hours later. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement framing this as the war entering a new phase, not continuing an old one, and the alignment of that internal and external messaging is usually a signal that a decision has already been made 1BBM Two US troops killed and one missing after Iranian attack in Jordan5GDN Iran attacks US allies in Middle East as renewed conflict enters second week.

The IRGCs 20th wave of Operation Nasr-2 targeted Al Azraq Air Base in Jordan and hit Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, claiming destruction of radar systems, a drone hangar, and at least two US fighter jets 4TTM Iran hits US positions in response to raids on civilian facilities. Kuwait temporarily shut its international airport and closed its airspace 15YNT US, Iran trade overnight strikes as Tehran targets Bahrain and Kuwait. Two US service members were killed defending Al Azraq, with one still missing, bringing the total US death toll to 16 1BBM Two US troops killed and one missing after Iranian attack in Jordan. Two oil tankers hit mines south of the Strait of Hormuz, which the IRGC claimed and the US declined to address directly 5GDN Iran attacks US allies in Middle East as renewed conflict enters second week14TSN Oil Tankers Catch Fire in Mined Route South of Strait of Hormuz: IRGC.

The IRGC issued a warning via Fars News Agency that Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports, plus the ports of Fujairah and Jebel Ali, should be "immediately evacuated" if the US strikes Iranian infrastructure again 6YNT Iran widens regional offensive, putting airports and power plants in crosshairs. The UAE has quietly hosted US forces while maintaining public neutrality throughout this war. A strike on Dubai International would ripple through global aviation routing within hours and represents the most significant potential geographic expansion of the conflict yet. Single source, unnamed military official, so confidence on imminent action is low. Confidence that the signal is intentional is high.

The Oil Volatility Index jumped to 60.02, Brent rose to $88.10, RBOB Gasoline is up 20% in a month, and heating oil is 30% above its mid-June level 17ABC Why oil prices are about to surge. The VIX jumped nearly two points in a single session and the S&P dropped 76 points. The more significant problem is downstream: a crude glut is masking a severe refined products shortage driven by both the Hormuz closure and Russian refinery destruction from Ukrainian strikes, with Moscow now banning diesel exports 17ABC Why oil prices are about to surge. That shortage does not resolve when a ceasefire is signed. European households will feel it by September.

Iraq signed $60 billion in deals with US companies during PM al-Zaidi's Washington visit, including a Chevron-led project to rebuild the Kirkuk-to-Baniyas pipeline through Syria, which the US ambassador said would "make the Strait of Hormuz an afterthought" 8AJE Iraq signs 48 deals with US companies during PM’s visit to Washington. It takes years to build, which is not helpful for the refined fuel shortage developing right now. Separately, a classified US nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia has been sitting unsigned on Trump's desk since October 2025, tentatively allowing Riyadh to enrich uranium without full safeguards, and has not been sent to Congress as federal law requires 11CNN Nuclear deal that would permit uranium enrichment by Saudi Arabia in limbo awaiting Trump admin sign off. Fighting a war ostensibly to stop Iranian nuclear ambitions while holding that agreement in a drawer is a tension worth keeping in mind.