ISRAEL PUBLICLY THREATENS NEW SUPREME LEADER AS FUNERAL WINDOW OPENS

Iran's state funeral runs July 5-9, and Israeli Defense Minister Katz has already named Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, as "marked for death." 5TOI Iran warns US, Israel against attacks ahead of long-delayed Khamenei funeral Iran's foreign minister called that an invitation for an "immediate powerful response," and the Khatam al-Anbiya commander warned the US and Israel against any "miscalculation" during the ceremonies. 5TOI Iran warns US, Israel against attacks ahead of long-delayed Khamenei funeral Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is calling for turnout that "rings with the call for vengeance," with 15 to 20 million mourners expected. The funeral is not a ceasefire. It is a seven-day nerve test, and one Israeli strike on anything Iranian ends the diplomatic pause permanently.

US and Iranian delegations agreed in Doha to reconvene after the funeral, with Qatar describing "positive progress" in indirect technical talks. 8CRD Tehran vows Hormuz ‘under our command’ as Qatar reports progress in talks 12TOI Qatar: US, Iran agree to hold further negotiations following Khamenei funeral What actually happened was narrower: both sides set up a channel to manage MoU grievances and reviewed mechanics for releasing a first tranche of the $6 billion in frozen funds. Process, not substance. The harder problem is this: Trump wants Iranian denuclearisation, and Iran's parliament has passed a law barring IAEA access to Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. 9AJE US-Iran talks in Doha: What were the outcomes and what’s next? Ghalibaf confirmed the IAEA currently has access to exactly two sites: Bushehr and the Tehran research reactor. Those two positions are not currently reconcilable.

The NYT has nailed down the full story of Project Freedom: Saudi Arabia refused US airspace access for the operation, Trump made three furious calls to MbS in three days, and the project collapsed. 2PTV US failure in war on Iran ignited clash between Trump, MBS: Report 3CRD Saudi crown prince ‘lost confidence’ in Trump after US failure in Iran: Report MbS's logic was straightforward: Saudi airspace use invites Iranian retaliation on Gulf soil. Rubio skipped Saudi Arabia entirely on his recent Gulf tour, which tells you where the relationship stands. 2PTV US failure in war on Iran ignited clash between Trump, MBS: Report More consequentially, Riyadh is now building an alternative security arrangement with Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. 1AJE How US-Iran war may push Gulf countries to ‘diversify’ security alliances That is not a hedge. That is a reorientation, and it is happening in public.

The Pentagon is openly considering dispersing and repositioning forces across the Gulf after Iranian strikes during Operation Epic Fury hit Naval Support Activity Bahrain, Al Udeid, Al Dhafra, and Ali Al Salem. 7FOX How Iran attacks are forcing the Pentagon to rethink its decades-old Middle East base strategy Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery confirmed forces are already rotating differently and alternate command-and-control sites are active. The US built its Gulf posture around concentration for rapid response. Iran has invalidated that logic at scale. Dispersal makes forces harder to hit and harder to surge. That is the forced tradeoff, and nobody has solved it yet.

Israeli Channel 12 is reporting, citing an interior ministry document, that damage to the Haifa Bay refineries is far beyond what operator Bazan disclosed to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in March. 6PTV Israel's largest refineries face years of repair after Iran airstrikes: Report One storage tank is beyond repair, and reconstruction runs to 2028. Bazan told markets in March the damage was "not significant." Single-source, so treat with some caution, but if accurate, Israel ran a sustained public information operation about its own industrial resilience, and the real cost of Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure is substantially higher than the official line suggested.