TRUMP SAYS SUNDAY. IRAN SAYS NOT SUNDAY. ISRAEL KEEPS BOMBING LEBANON.

• US Central Command (CENTCOM) shot down multiple Iranian drones targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of Saturday 4RTN Iranian drones downed in Hormuz, US 8SPK US Shot Down Several Drones Allegedly Launched by Iran - CENTCOM, even as both sides were ostensibly hours from a deal. Iran has not commented publicly on who launched them or whether the launches were authorised at a senior level. The drones were described as "one-way attack" variants. Firing drones at merchant shipping while simultaneously finalising a memorandum of understanding to reopen the strait is either a rogue action, a last piece of leverage, or a signal that the Hormuz closure is not uniformly enforced from Tehran's end. None of those explanations is reassuring.

• India's foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar formally protested to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio over the deaths of Indian sailors killed when the US Navy struck a tanker in the Gulf of Oman 9SPK India Foreign Minister Expresses Protest to Rubio Over US Strikes on Ships in Gulf of Oman. India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) had already summoned the US chargé d'affaires in New Delhi. Jaishankar said explicitly that "such actions against commercial shipping are not justified." This is now a named, senior-level bilateral dispute between the US and India, not a bureaucratic protest. It is not resolved, and the G7 meeting coming next week makes it harder to quietly manage.

• A Mehr News Agency source published what it described as a 14-point draft memorandum, including a clause that $300 billion in reconstruction costs would be presented by the US and its allies 7MHR What do we know about details of anticipated Iran-US MoU?. That figure has not been confirmed by US sources and Trump has said explicitly that "no money would exchange hands" 2AJE Trump says Iran deal to be signed tomorrow, contradicting Iranian official. The gap between $300 billion and zero is not a rounding error. Either the Iranian source is inflating the text for domestic consumption, or the US has not yet seen the version Iran is circulating internally.

• African airlines are now facing a structural fuel crisis as a direct result of the Hormuz closure, with the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) warning that jet fuel costs, already 17% above the global average before the war, are threatening profitability and route viability across the continent 14APW African airlines warn of cost pressures as result of Iran war. Supply concerns are acute at the Nairobi and Addis Ababa hubs. The war's economic damage is not confined to the Middle East and Europe. It is reshaping aviation economics across an entire continent.

Markets moved on deal optimism before the deal failed to materialise, and the data shows the gap between what traders priced and what actually happened. Brent fell to $87.33, down from $89.09 the prior day and well below the mid-May peak of $105 [[market data]]. The S&P 500 closed its 10th winning week in 11 16APW World shares surge after big Wall Street gains on hopes for an end to the Iran war, and the VIX dropped from 19.44 to 17.68, its lowest reading in this data set. Markets are pricing de-escalation as a near-certainty.

The instrument that should give you pause is the oil volatility index (OVX), still sitting at 54.10 despite the price slide. That means options traders are still paying up for protection against an oil price spike, even as the spot price falls. They are not as convinced as equity traders. Tanker stocks reinforce that read: Frontline hit $39.08 on Friday, up nearly 11% over the past month, which is a strange move if you believe Hormuz is about to reopen and tanker rates are about to normalise. The Cushing inventory story is the number underneath all of this: at 21.6 million barrels and falling, the US strategic buffer is weeks from operational stress levels 15CNN The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom. The oil market is about to hit a tipping point. If the deal slips another week, the oil price could reverse very fast.

The Cushing, Oklahoma storage situation is the domestic US pressure point that is not getting enough attention 15CNN The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom. The oil market is about to hit a tipping point. US diesel stocks are at their lowest since 2003, gasoline inventories are running about 5% below last year, and commercial crude storage globally is falling by 6.3 million barrels per day. Prices at the pump have not hit record highs yet, partly because the world entered this war historically oversupplied. That buffer is nearly gone. If the deal is not signed in the next few weeks and Hormuz does not reopen, American consumers are likely to see a sharp and sudden fuel price increase, not a gradual one. The political consequences of that for an administration already managing 6.5% wholesale inflation [[prior context]] would be severe.