OVERNIGHT EXCHANGE AND THE PAKISTAN MISSION

The sequence matters: Iran struck a tanker in the strait, the US hit two IRGC telecom towers on Qeshm Island, Iran fired seven ballistic missiles at Ali Al Salem Air Base and the Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain, and CENTCOM says it intercepted six of the seven 6TOI US, Iran trade fire in Gulf as Trump team consults experts for nuclear talks 9MHR IRGC retaliates against US attacks, warns full Hormuz closure. The IRGC then threatened full Hormuz closure if the strikes continue, which would be an escalation from the partial disruption already rattling oil markets 9MHR IRGC retaliates against US attacks, warns full Hormuz closure. Within hours, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi was in Tehran, and his first meeting was with IRGC Commander Vahidi, not the foreign ministry 3CRD Pakistan moves to 'revive' stalled US-Iran talks after IRGC responds to new US violations. That sequencing tells you Pakistan understands the IRGC and the diplomats are running on separate tracks. Meanwhile, Trump told reporters things are going "quite well" while acknowledging Iran still has 21 to 22 percent of its missile arsenal intact 6TOI US, Iran trade fire in Gulf as Trump team consults experts for nuclear talks 10TOI US military hits Iranian radar sites after drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz, up from the 18 percent figure he cited last month.

Iran's supreme leader adviser Mohsen Rezaei told CNN the talks are at a deadlock, with Tehran demanding $24 billion in frozen assets as a precondition and calling it "a test of trust" 13CNN Exclusive: Iran supreme leader’s adviser says talks deadlocked over $24 billion and warns of wider war. The US position is that releasing funds before a deal removes its only real leverage. The Pakistani proposal reportedly includes "slightly better incentives" on assets and sanctions 3CRD Pakistan moves to 'revive' stalled US-Iran talks after IRGC responds to new US violations, so there is movement, but the structural gap is the same one that has existed for weeks. The fact that Trump's team is already consulting nuclear experts on what to do with Iran's enriched uranium stockpile 6TOI US, Iran trade fire in Gulf as Trump team consults experts for nuclear talks suggests Washington is at least doing the prep work for a deal.

Israel killed three Lebanese Armed Forces officers in an airstrike on a military vehicle in southern Lebanon, including a brigadier general, despite both governments having declared no hostile intent toward each other days earlier 4CRD Israel kills Lebanese army officers days after declaring 'no hostile intent' against Beirut. More than 30 LAF soldiers have now been killed by Israel since March, which is a difficult backdrop for any parallel peace negotiation. Separately, NBC News reported the Pentagon raised its counterintelligence threat assessment of Israel to "critical," its highest designation, over concerns Israeli intelligence is collecting on internal US deliberations about the Iran and Lebanon conflicts 5TOI Pentagon raised threat assessment of Israeli spying on US to ‘critical’ level, report. The White House and Israeli embassy denied it, the Pentagon declined to comment, and one US official noted the US already takes extra precautions when visiting Israel. Make of that what you will.

New CNN video from the March fire aboard the Gerald R. Ford shows the ship's fire-suppression system failed entirely, 600 sailors lost bunk access, and one sailor said he "seriously thought we were going to lose the ship" 17CNN Exclusive: Video reveals damage from fire on US aircraft carrier after sources say fire control system failed | CNN Politics. The Navy's public statement at the time called the blaze "contained" and the ship "fully operational." The Ford was offline for two days and required repairs in Greece. This surfacing on Day 99 is the kind of disclosure that feeds congressional appetite for military oversight, especially with a war powers vote coming next week.

Russia's finance minister said at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that the Hormuz crisis is on track to deliver roughly $13.6 billion in windfall oil revenue for Moscow 14AAM Russia expects to derive $13.6B from Strait of Hormuz oil spike. Russia is the clearest beneficiary of this war: high prices, a distracted NATO, nothing required in return. On markets, Brent fell to $93 from $98 as the diplomatic track showed faint signs of life, but the VIX jumped to 21.5, equities sold off, and Bitcoin dropped to $59,415 from $81,000 a month ago. Falling oil alongside falling everything else is not a peace rally. Defense stocks (Raytheon, Northrop, Lockheed) all ticked higher. The market read is: the war goes on, growth slows, no deal is imminent.