THE OVERNIGHT EXCHANGE THAT NEARLY BROKE THE CEASEFIRE, AND THE DIPLOMAT WHO FLEW IN TO SAVE IT

• Israel killed three Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) officers in an airstrike on a military vehicle in southern Lebanon, including a brigadier general, despite both governments having declared "no hostile intent" toward each other just days before 4CRD Israel kills Lebanese army officers days after declaring 'no hostile intent' against Beirut. Israel claimed the vehicle was moving "suspiciously" in a combat zone without coordination. The LAF has condemned the attack as "barbaric." Over 30 LAF soldiers have now been killed by Israel since March 2 4CRD Israel kills Lebanese army officers days after declaring 'no hostile intent' against Beirut. The fact that Israel is killing soldiers from an army it is nominally negotiating peace with is the defining absurdity of the Lebanon file right now.

• The Pentagon raised its counterintelligence threat assessment of Israel to "critical," its highest designation, amid concerns that Israeli intelligence is gathering information on internal US deliberations about the Iran and Lebanon conflicts 5TOI Pentagon raised threat assessment of Israeli spying on US to ‘critical’ level, report. NBC News cited current and former US officials. Both the White House and the Israeli embassy vehemently denied the report. The Pentagon declined to comment 5TOI Pentagon raised threat assessment of Israeli spying on US to ‘critical’ level, report. One current US official told NBC that "the US already takes extra precautions when visiting Israel," which is a telling admission for an ally. Daily intelligence-sharing on the Iran war is reportedly continuing unaffected, but the designation, if accurate, reflects a US-Israel relationship under more structural strain than the public posture suggests.

• CNN confirmed the previously reported Israeli covert deployment to Azerbaijan, adding new detail: special commando units carried out drone operations from southern Azerbaijan, approximately 60 miles from Tabriz, which Israel struck during the war 15CNN Exclusive: Israel sent troops to Azerbaijan during Iran war, sources say | CNN. This is no longer a new story, but the confirmation arriving on Day 99, as Iran-Azerbaijan relations remain tense and as the Azerbaijan government continues to deny it, gives Tehran a fresh grievance to work with in any diplomatic setting.

• New video obtained by CNN reveals the March fire aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier was far more severe than the Navy disclosed 17CNN Exclusive: Video reveals damage from fire on US aircraft carrier after sources say fire control system failed | CNN Politics. The ship's fire-suppression system failed entirely, 600 sailors lost access to their bunks, and a sailor told CNN "I seriously thought we were going to lose the ship" 17CNN Exclusive: Video reveals damage from fire on US aircraft carrier after sources say fire control system failed | CNN Politics. The Ford was offline for two days and required port repairs in Greece. The Navy's public statement at the time said the blaze was "contained" and the ship "fully operational." The gap between those two descriptions is significant, and the timing of this disclosure, on the war's 100th day, is the kind of thing that feeds congressional appetite for oversight.

• Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the Hormuz crisis is expected to generate approximately $13.6 billion in windfall budget revenue for Moscow 14AAM Russia expects to derive $13.6B from Strait of Hormuz oil spike. He flagged the figure could reach the National Welfare Fund if current price levels hold. Russia is the clearest structural beneficiary of a war neither side wants prolonged: high oil prices, a distracted NATO, and no obligation to do anything except wait.

The picture today is genuinely mixed and worth reading carefully. Brent crude fell to $93 from $98 yesterday, continuing its slide from the $101 peak a month ago, and the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) eased to 57 from 60. On its own that reads like cautious optimism about the diplomatic track. But the VIX (equity market fear gauge) jumped sharply to 21.5 from 16, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both sold off, gold dropped further to $4,337 from its recent high above $4,600, and Bitcoin is at $59,415, down from $66,000 yesterday and $81,000 a month ago. That combination, falling oil but also falling everything else, is not a peace rally. It looks like a broad repricing of risk, with markets discounting both the deal timeline and the growth outlook simultaneously. The one sector holding firm, again, is defence: Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin all ticked higher, and the defence exchange-traded fund (ITA) edged up. Markets are saying: the war continues, the economy slows, the deal is not imminent.

One hundred days in, the US job market is doing something surprising: employers added 172,000 jobs in May, roughly double forecasts, and the unemployment rate held at 4.3% 16APW Employers added 172,000 jobs last month as US job market shows resilience despite Iran war. That is a genuine bright spot, and it slightly complicates the political narrative for Democrats. But the job numbers are not translating into felt relief. Inflation for groceries, clothing, and electricity is rising alongside fuel costs, and wage gains of 0.3% monthly are not keeping pace 16APW Employers added 172,000 jobs last month as US job market shows resilience despite Iran war. The University of Maryland poll published this week found only 16 percent of US voters think the US is winning or has won the war, and 72 percent say it was not worth it 1AJE 100 days into the war on Iran, Trump fails to rally US support 8PTV Congress tables bill limiting Trump war powers. The House war powers resolution has now passed, reflecting that public mood in institutional form 8PTV Congress tables bill limiting Trump war powers. The Senate is expected to vote next week, where it is likely to fail, but the political pressure on Republican incumbents facing November's midterms is now a documented and measurable force rather than a vague concern.