THE US IS DRAFTING AN IAEA RESOLUTION THAT WOULD PROBABLY KILL ITS OWN NEGOTIATIONS

Washington is preparing a condemnation resolution for next week's IAEA board meeting, while its own diplomats are in ceasefire talks with a signing ceremony supposedly scheduled for Geneva 1CRD Washington draws up resolution to condemn Iran at upcoming IAEA meeting: Report. Russia's IAEA ambassador called it potentially antagonizing and doubted the US would actually submit it, which is either honest analysis or damage control 1CRD Washington draws up resolution to condemn Iran at upcoming IAEA meeting: Report. The IAEA passed a similar resolution last June, one day before Israel launched its bombing campaign, so Tehran will not read this as a transparency push 1CRD Washington draws up resolution to condemn Iran at upcoming IAEA meeting: Report. Iran's position already requires normalization of its IAEA status as part of any deal 2PTV Iran demands immediate release of 50% of frozen assets upon any understanding with US: a condemnation vote doesn't just complicate that, it makes it structurally impossible for months.

Deputy FM Gharibabadi gave a detailed public readout of what Iran actually wants: 50 percent of frozen assets released immediately on signing, the remainder within two months, and the naval blockade lifted in parallel with Iranian steps on Hormuz 2PTV Iran demands immediate release of 50% of frozen assets upon any understanding with US. He explicitly rejected the "one action for one action" framing, describing a comprehensive settlement rather than a transactional swap 2PTV Iran demands immediate release of 50% of frozen assets upon any understanding with US. The US is publicly offering ceasefire extension in exchange for nuclear concessions first. Those are not two positions inching toward each other. Iran also received a US ultimatum through Pakistan's mediation channel demanding a response by the weekend and a Geneva signing next Thursday 12TOI ‘Khamenei’ says US, Israel hit by ‘decisive blow’ amid mixed signals on talks, US security alert, and nothing in Tehran's public posture looks like a government preparing to sign anything next week.

Iran launched Qadir missiles and "Martyr Dana" drones at two US destroyers, DDG-103 and DDG-87, and claims both withdrew toward the Indian Ocean 3MHR US vessels withdraw toward India Ocean after Iran's warning 4AAM Iran says navy fired warning shots toward US destroyers in Sea of Oman. Anadolu Agency corroborates the firing incident, which gives it reasonable credibility beyond Iranian state media 4AAM Iran says navy fired warning shots toward US destroyers in Sea of Oman. Iran further claims the USS Tripoli and carrier strike group elements also left the area, though the US has not confirmed any withdrawal 3MHR US vessels withdraw toward India Ocean after Iran's warning. The full retreat claim fits a consistent pattern of Iranian overstatement in this war, but the shots were fired, and the timing against a diplomatic deadline is not subtle.

CNN confirmed Israel operated a covert base in Azerbaijan during the war, hosting Mossad, special operations, and elite heliborne units 6CRD Israel sent ‘elite’ troops to Azerbaijan in secret intel mission against Iran: Report. Additional sites were reportedly active in the UAE, Somaliland, and Iraq, with Somaliland described as a refuelling stop for long-range strike aircraft, which is the operationally interesting detail 6CRD Israel sent ‘elite’ troops to Azerbaijan in secret intel mission against Iran: Report. Azerbaijan denied it. None of this is shocking to anyone following the war closely, but it is coming out now, while Iran-Azerbaijan relations are already strained, and Tehran will use it as leverage, in the talks and in the region.

Container spot rates are 80 percent above pre-war levels, Shanghai to LA is up 108 percent, and Drewry's World Container Index is approaching its war-peak 9AAM Container freight spot rates surge 80% since Middle East war broke out. American households are carrying an estimated $750 each in additional costs over three months, gas is at $4.24 a gallon nationally 7FOX Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices. Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox the conflict needs to be resolved by July 4 for the economy to recover before November's midterms 7FOX Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices. An energy analyst at Kpler noted that even if Hormuz reopened today, markets wouldn't normalize until Q4 7FOX Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices. The political clock is loud. The economic relief, even in a best-case scenario, arrives too late to matter before November.