WASHINGTON IS PREPARING AN IAEA RESOLUTION THAT COULD TORPEDO ITS OWN NEGOTIATIONS

• Iran fired warning shots at two US destroyers in the Sea of Oman using Qadir missiles and "Martyr Dana" drones, and claims DDG-103 and DDG-87 subsequently withdrew toward the Indian Ocean 3MHR US vessels withdraw toward India Ocean after Iran's warning 4AAM Iran says navy fired warning shots toward US destroyers in Sea of Oman. Iran further claims the operation, combined with recent actions, pushed the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship and elements of a carrier strike group out of the area entirely 3MHR US vessels withdraw toward India Ocean after Iran's warning. The US has not confirmed the withdrawal. Given the consistent pattern in this war of Iranian claims exceeding what CENTCOM acknowledges, treat the full scope of the retreat claim with caution. But the warning shots themselves are reported by Anadolu Agency as well as Iranian sources 4AAM Iran says navy fired warning shots toward US destroyers in Sea of Oman, which gives the firing incident reasonable credibility.

• A drone struck Oman's Mina al-Fahal oil terminal, forcing suspension of crude loading at its single-buoy mooring berths 11AJE Iran war day 98: Tehran raises doubts on deal as Lebanon fighting continues. This is a single-source Reuters report cited by Al Jazeera and has not been independently confirmed at compile time. If accurate, it is significant: Mina al-Fahal handles a substantial share of Oman's crude exports, and Oman has been one of the few Gulf producers managing to partially compensate for Hormuz disruption. Attribution for the strike is not established in the sources available.

• CNN confirmed that Israel maintained a covert base in Azerbaijan during the war, housing Mossad agents, special operations forces, and elite heliborne units, operating approximately 97 kilometres from Tabriz 6CRD Israel sent ‘elite’ troops to Azerbaijan in secret intel mission against Iran: Report. Additional covert Israeli sites were reportedly active in the UAE, Somaliland, and Iraq 6CRD Israel sent ‘elite’ troops to Azerbaijan in secret intel mission against Iran: Report. The Somaliland position, described as a refuelling stop for long-range Israeli strike aircraft, is the operationally interesting detail. Azerbaijan denied the claims. The significance here is less the revelation itself, widely suspected, and more the timing: this is coming out now, while Iran and Azerbaijan maintain a tense diplomatic relationship. Tehran will use this.

• Lebanon's death toll has passed 3,526 since March 2, and Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem formally rejected the latest US-brokered ceasefire framework, calling it a "farce" 8TOI Israel kills Hezbollah chief engineer, as ministers said to demand vote on truce deal 11AJE Iran war day 98: Tehran raises doubts on deal as Lebanon fighting continues. Israel struck near Jabal Amel hospital in Tyre for the second time in a week, killing four and wounding 127 in Monday's strike 8TOI Israel kills Hezbollah chief engineer, as ministers said to demand vote on truce deal. Netanyahu refused a cabinet vote on the ceasefire terms, telling ministers there is currently "no deal" because Hezbollah has not accepted 8TOI Israel kills Hezbollah chief engineer, as ministers said to demand vote on truce deal. The Lebanon file remains structurally linked to the Iran nuclear talks, and Hezbollah's flat rejection removes one of the preconditions Iran has been using to demand broader concessions.

• Container freight spot rates are now 80 percent above pre-war levels, with Shanghai-to-New York up 98 percent and Shanghai-to-Los Angeles up 108 percent 9AAM Container freight spot rates surge 80% since Middle East war broke out. The Strait of Hormuz remains 90 percent below normal traffic levels. Drewry's World Container Index reached $3,344 for a 40-foot container as of June 4, approaching last year's war-peak of $3,543 9AAM Container freight spot rates surge 80% since Middle East war broke out. This is not just a Hormuz story: rerouting, FIFA World Cup cargo demand, and anticipated tariff front-loading are all compressing the same shipping lanes simultaneously 9AAM Container freight spot rates surge 80% since Middle East war broke out.

Today's session told a complicated story. Brent crude dropped sharply to $93 from $98 yesterday, which on its face looks like relief. But look at what moved with it: gold fell to $4,343 from $4,468, silver dropped, the S&P 500 fell from 7,570 to 7,398, and the VIX (a measure of expected equity market volatility) spiked from 16 to 19.5. That is not a "good news" pattern. That reads like a broad risk-off move, where traders are selling everything including safe havens, possibly on concerns about the diplomatic timeline collapsing. The Israeli shekel weakened sharply against the dollar, and the TA-125 (Israel's benchmark equity index) is now down nearly five percent from a week ago. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) eased slightly to 58, which is the one counterintuitive note. Bitcoin has dropped to $59,415 from $66,040 yesterday, its lowest in the series, reinforcing the rotation away from speculative assets. Defence stocks ticked up modestly across the board, which is the market quietly hedging that the deal does not close on time.

American households are carrying an estimated $750 each in additional costs over the past three months from fuel, transportation, and related war inflation, totalling roughly $100 billion nationally according to Moody's Analytics 7FOX Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices. The national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.24 per gallon on Thursday, up 35 percent from a year ago 7FOX Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices. The political clock is now audible: Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox News the conflict needs to be resolved by July 4, or the economy won't have time to recover before November's midterm elections 7FOX Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices. An energy analyst at Kpler warned that even if Hormuz reopened today, normalisation of global energy markets would likely not arrive until the fourth quarter 7FOX Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices. That means consumer pain at the pump is baked in through the summer regardless of what happens at the negotiating table next week.