THE BLOCKADE HAS A HOLE IN IT AND THE HOLE IS PAKISTAN

Three empty Iranian tankers from the National Iranian Oil Company routed through Pakistan's exclusive economic zone to reach Iranian ports in the last 48 hours, confirmed by satellite imagery and AIS tracking 7RTN Iran bypasses Trump’s ‘wall of steel’, media 12AAM 3 empty Iranian tankers breach US blockade line: Maritime tracker. Combined capacity: five million barrels. They are returning to load. The route is real, repeatable, and closing it would require the US to operate inside Pakistani waters or dramatically expand the blockade's footprint. Pakistan formalized this arrangement on April 25 with a transit order designating three seaports and six overland routes for Iran-bound cargo 9CRD Pakistan-Iran corridor punches through the Hormuz blockade. Islamabad is simultaneously mediating the nuclear talks and quietly dismantling Washington's main pressure tool, which is not an accident. A confidential US intelligence assessment concluded Iran can survive the blockade three to four months before facing severe hardship, with 65 to 75 million barrels in floating storage 7RTN Iran bypasses Trump’s ‘wall of steel’, media. The "wall of steel" framing is holding up less well than advertised.

Iran fired two ballistic missiles and three drones at the UAE on Friday; three people were wounded after Abu Dhabi's air defences partially engaged the barrage 4GDN US awaiting response from Iran over proposals for ceasefire deal, says Rubio 6CRD Clashes reported between Iranian, US forces near Strait of Hormuz. Whether all projectiles were intercepted was not confirmed. Separately, Hezbollah rockets reached Haifa Bay and western Galilee, the deepest strikes into Israel since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect April 17 8CRD Hezbollah rockets target Haifa as Israel continues carpet bombing campaign of south Lebanon. The Lebanese health ministry puts the cumulative toll since March 2 at 2,759 killed and 8,512 injured 2AJE More than a dozen reported killed in Israeli attacks on south Lebanon. Washington-brokered Lebanon talks are expected next week, meaning both sides are arriving having escalated. Gulf interceptor stocks are significantly depleted since February, and the $25.8 billion US arms sale Rubio approved last week 17TOI Report: Rubio OKed $25.8 billion sale of interceptors and other arms to Israel, Mideast nations will not deliver replacements for two to three years. Abu Dhabi is absorbing Iranian fire on borrowed time.

Joe Kent, Trump's former counterterrorism chief, stated publicly that the entire US intelligence community, including the CIA, agreed before the war that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon, and accurately predicted Iran would close the Strait and target US bases if attacked 3RTN Washington ignored intel warnings on Iran, Trump’s ex-counterterror chief 14FOX US intel community agreed before war 'Iran wasn't developing a nuclear weapon': ex-counterterrorism chief. Kent resigned from the National Counterterrorism Center in March and is now on the record by name. Trump has said Israel "never talked me into the war." Nobody in the administration has offered a factual rebuttal to Kent's account. Make of that what you will.

ASEAN leaders adopted a regional fuel-sharing framework Friday in the Philippines, including plans for a joint power grid and collective fuel stockpile 1AJE ASEAN leaders adopt measures to ease economic pain caused by Iran war. The specifics, priority access, payment, volume allocation, are unresolved. Philippine President Marcos said plainly: "We haven't done it before." The Philippines was the first country to declare a national energy emergency back in March, and ASEAN as a whole imports more than half its crude from the Middle East. The framework is thin but the signal is not: these governments have stopped treating the Strait closure as a temporary emergency and are restructuring their energy architecture around it as the baseline.

No commercial ships transited the Strait of Hormuz for a second consecutive day as of 0900 GMT Friday 13AAM No ships passed through Hormuz in last 48 hours as US-Iran clashes raise security risks. CENTCOM confirmed it is blocking more than 70 tankers from entering or leaving Iranian ports 5BBC Iran accuses US of 'reckless military adventure'. One French-owned vessel was reported to have transited with its AIS off, suggesting operators are attempting covert passage rather than waiting for a resolution. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi claimed Friday that Iranian ballistic missile stocks and launcher capacity have not only been repaired since the ceasefire began but expanded 4GDN US awaiting response from Iran over proposals for ceasefire deal, says Rubio. If Iranian forces interdict a non-US-flagged vessel using their newly established transit protocols this weekend, the "Iranian sovereign management of Hormuz" posture stops being rhetorical.