PROJECT FREEDOM MET LIVE FIRE WITHIN HOURS

Trump's Project Freedom convoy operation launched Monday with 15,000 personnel, 100-plus aircraft, and guided-missile destroyers 2BBC What we know about Trump's 'Project Freedom' aimed to help stranded ships through Strait of Hormuz. Iran's military chief had warned the night before that any foreign force entering the Strait "especially the aggressive US army" would be attacked 12CRD Iran launches missiles at US warship attempting to cross Hormuz: Report. Iran then reportedly fired two missiles at a US frigate near Jask Island after the vessel ignored IRGC warnings 12CRD Iran launches missiles at US warship attempting to cross Hormuz: Report. CENTCOM denied ships were "struck," not that they were fired on 13TOI Iran says it hit American Navy ship attempting to pass Hormuz; US denies claim, and IRGC-affiliated Fars News claimed the vessel "turned back and fled" 7CRD IRGC defines new maritime control zone in Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have strong reasons to manage the optics here, which is why the careful wording on both sides is itself informative.

Iran launched four cruise missiles at the UAE: three were intercepted, one fell into the sea 6AAM UAE detects 4 cruise missiles fired from Iran, 1st attack since US-Iran ceasefire. A drone strike started a fire at Fujairah's oil port, injuring three Indian nationals, and a tanker was separately hit in the Strait 1BBC UAE accuses Iran of renewed drone and missile attacks. South Korea reported an explosion on one of its vessels anchored off the UAE coast, and two people were injured in Oman when a building in Bukha was struck 1BBC UAE accuses Iran of renewed drone and missile attacks. Iranian state media quoted an unnamed official saying Iran had "no plans to target the UAE," which is a difficult claim to make while Fujairah is on fire 1BBC UAE accuses Iran of renewed drone and missile attacks. The UAE called it a dangerous escalation. Qatar condemned it. The attack also hit one of the few oil export routes that bypasses the Strait entirely, which narrows the already narrow path back to normal energy flows.

On May 2, China's Ministry of Commerce issued a formal order prohibiting five major refineries, including Hengli Petrochemical, from complying with US sanctions on Iranian oil purchases 11CRD Beijing orders Chinese refineries to ignore 'illegal' US sanctions targeting Iran oil trade. Two days later, Treasury Secretary Bessent went on Fox News to accuse Beijing of funding terrorism while simultaneously asking China to use its leverage over Iran to help reopen the Strait 5AJE US official says China is ‘funding’ Iran, urges Beijing to help open Hormuz. Threatening and soliciting a country in the same breath, days before an expected Trump visit to Beijing, is not a strong position. Xi holds real cards here: China buys roughly 90 percent of Iran's exported oil and has blocked UN condemnation of the Iranian blockade. What Trump trades to get Chinese pressure on Tehran is the biggest diplomatic variable of the next ten days.

The first Boeing KC-46 "Gideon" aerial refuelling tanker completed its maiden flight and will be delivered to Israel within about a month 8SPK New KC-46 Supertankers Promise Israel Conventional Samson Option Strike Сapability. Israel is acquiring six of these extended-range aircraft, and analysts say the capability lets Israel independently strike Iran, Yemen, and other distant targets without requiring US support or approval. Israel also approved orders to double its F-35 and F-15 fleets 8SPK New KC-46 Supertankers Promise Israel Conventional Samson Option Strike Сapability. The US nominally controls the escalation ladder right now. Israel is in the process of building its own.

Iran's toman has lost 22 percent of its value in a month, inflation is running at 73.5 percent, and food prices are up 115 percent 16GDN Could Iran’s escalating economic crisis weaken negotiating position with US?. Columbia University's energy center estimates roughly three weeks of useable oil storage remain before Iran faces well shut-ins, putting the critical window in late May 16GDN Could Iran’s escalating economic crisis weaken negotiating position with US?. Bessent's "three days" prediction from last week missed, but the trajectory is unchanged. Meanwhile, a BBC investigation found European jet fuel has more than doubled since February, from $831 to above $1,500 per tonne 18BBC The threat to summer holidays looming from jet fuel shortages. Today's Fujairah attack hit one of the few export routes around the Strait, and the UK, which imports 65 percent of its jet fuel and has four domestic refineries left, is particularly exposed 18BBC The threat to summer holidays looming from jet fuel shortages. Watch for European airline capacity cuts in the next two to four weeks.