IRANS MISSILE RECOVERY MAKES THE WAR STORY FALL APART

US intelligence assessments from early May show Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, retains roughly 70 percent of its pre-war launcher capacity, and holds 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile including ballistic and cruise missiles 4SPK US Intelligence Believes Iran Restored 90% of Missile Sites Along Hormuz Strait - Reports 7CRD US intel agencies say Iran retains 'majority' of pre-war missile stock: Report. Mobile launchers mean many of these assets can move before any strike reaches them. This directly contradicts months of public statements from Trump, Hegseth, and senior Pentagon officials about Iran being "decimated." Hegseth was pressed on this in Congress Tuesday, called munitions depletion concerns "overstated," and in the same breath acknowledged the administration is "working to ramp up weapons production" 15APW Hegseth faces new questioning from Congress on the Iran war. Congress noticed the contradiction. The war has now cost the US at least $29 billion, up from $25 billion two weeks ago, not counting base repair costs across sixteen sites in eight countries 15APW Hegseth faces new questioning from Congress on the Iran war 7CRD US intel agencies say Iran retains 'majority' of pre-war missile stock: Report.

Iran submitted its counter-proposal Sunday with no up-front nuclear concessions and a demand for a permanent ceasefire before any nuclear talks begin 3TOI US-Iran talks stalled after Tehran tried skirting up-front nuke concessions, officials. A mediating diplomat told the Times of Israel that Tehran "thinks it's in the driver's seat" 3TOI US-Iran talks stalled after Tehran tried skirting up-front nuke concessions, officials. Iran's five public preconditions for further talks include lifting sanctions, unblocking assets, war reparations, and recognising Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the last of which Washington has called a non-starter 10SPK Iran to Hold Talks With US If Washington Meets 5 Conditions - Reports. If Iran's negotiators have access to even an approximate version of the US intelligence picture on missile reconstitution, their read of their own leverage is not delusional.

Netanyahu made a secret visit to the UAE on 26 March, meeting President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed for several hours, and Mossad director Barnea made at least two separate UAE trips to coordinate military operations 1GDN Benjamin Netanyahu made secret trip to UAE at height of the Iran war. The UAE struck an Iranian refinery on Lavan Island in early April, Saudi Arabia launched its own covert strikes on Iranian soil in late March (a first for the kingdom), and at least one UAE strike was coordinated directly with Israel 12TOI Saudi Arabia covertly launched strikes on Iran during war, sources say. The Gulf states have been careful to say none of this publicly. The picture that emerges is of a multi-party war with a much larger coalition than the official one, which has real implications for any eventual settlement.

A UN Security Council resolution on Hormuz freedom of navigation now has 112 co-sponsors, roughly two-thirds of all member states, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, India, Japan, South Korea, and most EU members 9AJE Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz gains support of 112 nations. China and Russia have not committed to vetoing this one, unlike the first resolution last month, though both have reservations. Separately, the UK formally committed Typhoon jets, a warship, and mine-hunting drones to the multinational Hormuz mission, backed by £115 million in new funding 13BBC UK promises jets, drones and warship for Strait of Hormuz defence mission. The mission activates "when conditions allow," which is diplomatic language for a ceasefire that actually holds. A Security Council resolution does not move Iranian missile batteries, but 112 signatures does tell you something about how isolated Tehran is on the navigation question.

Israel struck a highway south of Beirut on Wednesday, killing eight people including two children, and issued forced displacement orders for six southern Lebanese villages, placing at least one functioning hospital inside an evacuation zone 8AJE At least eight killed in Israeli drone strikes on Lebanon highway. Lebanon and Israel are due in Washington Thursday for US-brokered talks. Hezbollah opposes the talks and is not participating 8AJE At least eight killed in Israeli drone strikes on Lebanon highway. The US is simultaneously trying to broker a Lebanon deal and needing Israeli acquiescence on any Iran agreement. Those two things are pulling against each other in real time, and the timing of this escalation makes Thursday's talks harder before they start.