THE BLOCKADE IS LEAKING, AND BOTH SIDES KNOW IT

• Zero commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz for a second straight day as of 0900 GMT Friday 13AAM No ships passed through Hormuz in last 48 hours as US-Iran clashes raise security risks. US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed it is preventing more than 70 tankers from entering or leaving Iranian ports 5BBC Iran accuses US of 'reckless military adventure', while a French-owned vessel was reported to have transited with its AIS switched off, suggesting shipowners are attempting covert passage rather than waiting for any formal resolution.

• Iran struck the UAE with two ballistic missiles and three drones Friday; three people were wounded after Abu Dhabi's air defences partially engaged the barrage 4GDN US awaiting response from Iran over proposals for ceasefire deal, says Rubio 6CRD Clashes reported between Iranian, US forces near Strait of Hormuz. It was not confirmed whether all projectiles were successfully intercepted. Israel had reportedly deployed an Iron Dome battery to the UAE during the war, though Israeli officials denied deploying the more sensitive Iron Beam laser system 17TOI Report: Rubio OKed $25.8 billion sale of interceptors and other arms to Israel, Mideast nations. The UAE strikes are a reminder that Gulf states absorbing Iranian fire are doing so with interceptor stocks that have been significantly depleted since February, and the $25.8 billion US arms sale approved by Rubio last week 17TOI Report: Rubio OKed $25.8 billion sale of interceptors and other arms to Israel, Mideast nations will not deliver replacement interceptors for at least two to three years.

• Hezbollah fired rockets reaching Haifa Bay and western Galilee Friday, the deepest strikes into Israel since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect on April 17 8CRD Hezbollah rockets target Haifa as Israel continues carpet bombing campaign of south Lebanon. At least 20 people were killed in Israeli air strikes on southern Lebanon over the same period, including a civil defence worker 2AJE More than a dozen reported killed in Israeli attacks on south Lebanon. With Washington-brokered talks on Lebanon expected next week, both sides are arriving at the table having escalated, not de-escalated. The Lebanese health ministry puts the death toll since March 2 at 2,759 killed and 8,512 injured 2AJE More than a dozen reported killed in Israeli attacks on south Lebanon.

• Trump's former counterterrorism chief Joe Kent stated publicly that the entire US intelligence community, including the CIA, agreed before the war that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon, and that US agencies had correctly predicted Iran would target American bases and close the Strait if attacked 3RTN Washington ignored intel warnings on Iran, Trump’s ex-counterterror chief 14FOX US intel community agreed before war 'Iran wasn't developing a nuclear weapon': ex-counterterrorism chief. Kent, who resigned from the National Counterterrorism Center in March, said Israeli "narrative and agenda" overrode accurate intelligence assessments. Trump rejected this account in April, saying Israel "never talked me into the war." The significance is not the he-said-she-said: it is that a former senior US intelligence official is on record, by name, saying the war was built on a false premise, and nobody in the administration has offered a factual rebuttal.

• ASEAN leaders adopted a regional fuel-sharing framework at their summit in the Philippines Friday, along with plans for a joint power grid and collective fuel stockpile 1AJE ASEAN leaders adopt measures to ease economic pain caused by Iran war. The practical details, including who gets priority, how payment works, and how volumes are allocated, have not been resolved. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said it plainly: "We haven't done it before." ASEAN imports more than half its crude oil from the Middle East. The Philippines was the first country in the world to declare a national energy emergency, back in late March. Marcos warned the consequences "will take years to be corrected." This is a region of 700 million people reshaping its energy architecture under live-fire conditions.

Oil slipped slightly on the day, with Brent just above $101, essentially flat after last week's sharp drop from $108. The market is not pricing in a deal and is not pricing in resumed full-scale war either. It is priced for stasis. The more telling signal is in tanker stocks: Frontline is up over eight percent from a week ago and nearly ten percent since early April [[market data]], which makes sense if you think the Strait stays closed longer, demand for rerouted tanker capacity stays high, and Iranian blockade-running keeps creating incidents. Gold at $4,733 continues its quiet climb regardless of diplomatic signals, which means institutional money is not buying the optimism. Defence stocks are drifting lower across the board from their April peaks, but the broad Defence ETF (ITA) is actually up on the week, suggesting the market sees the conflict as a sustained procurement story rather than an imminent resolution. The DXY dollar index keeps weakening, now below 98, which is a slow-moving signal that confidence in US strategic management of this crisis is not recovering.

Southeast Asian governments are now formally restructuring their energy systems around the assumption that the Strait closure is not short-term 1AJE ASEAN leaders adopt measures to ease economic pain caused by Iran war. The ASEAN framework adopted Friday is thin on specifics but significant as a political signal: these governments have stopped waiting for Washington or Tehran to fix the problem and are building around it. That posture, governments accepting long-duration disruption as the baseline rather than a temporary emergency, is spreading. The implications for global LNG markets, shipping insurance premiums, and regional investment decisions will compound quietly over the coming months regardless of what happens at the negotiating table.