THE IRGC RUNS IRAN NOW AND NOBODY CAN SAY YES FAST

Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but isolated, communicating through IRGC aides and largely ratifying what his generals decide rather than directing them 1TOI IRGC shores up wartime power in Iran, blunting supreme leader’s role. IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and parliament speaker Ghalibaf (a former Guards commander) are the people who actually matter 1TOI IRGC shores up wartime power in Iran, blunting supreme leader’s role. A senior Pakistani mediator told Reuters that Iran takes two to three days just to respond to a message, not to negotiate, because "there is apparently no one decision-making command structure" 1TOI IRGC shores up wartime power in Iran, blunting supreme leader’s role. That is the mediator going on record about the side they are mediating for. The first Iranian proposal was rejected by Washington before it was even formally submitted 6AJE What’s in Iran’s latest proposal, and how has the US responded?. A second is coming, but nothing in the current reporting suggests the Guards have authorised anything the US would accept. Ali Vaez of ICG put it cleanly: Tehran will not negotiate under duress, Washington believes pressure produces concessions 8AAM 2 months into Iran war: Will deadlock in negotiations derail diplomacy?. Those are not positions that split the difference.

Six Gulf heads of state gathered in Jeddah for the first time since February 28, with a shared position: any Hormuz deal must be permanent and durable, not a temporary arrangement that gets relitigated every time someone has a political reason 3AJE Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia for first time since start of war on Iran. Qatar's foreign ministry explicitly warned against a "frozen conflict" 3AJE Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia for first time since start of war on Iran. While they were meeting, the UAE announced it was leaving OPEC and OPEC+ to act in its "national interests" 3AJE Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia for first time since start of war on Iran. The practical read: Abu Dhabi, which has significant spare capacity, wants to move fast once the strait reopens without waiting for cartel coordination. It is also a signal that Gulf states are done subordinating their energy decisions to a broader architecture that no longer serves them.

The fiber-optic tethered drone costs $400 to $500, is built from 3D-printed parts and Soviet-era RPG components, and emits no radio frequency signal 7SPK Hezbollah’s Deadly Fiberoptic Tethered Drones Poke Huge Hole in Israel’s Defenses. Israel's entire electronic warfare suite, including Drone Dome and Iron Dome, is designed around detecting RF emissions or fast-moving objects. A slow, tiny, signal-less drone flying under 100 metres defeats all of it 7SPK Hezbollah’s Deadly Fiberoptic Tethered Drones Poke Huge Hole in Israel’s Defenses. Israeli analysts say "no proper defense exists yet" 7SPK Hezbollah’s Deadly Fiberoptic Tethered Drones Poke Huge Hole in Israel’s Defenses. Hezbollah has already used these against Merkava tanks, armoured bulldozers, and occupied buildings. As long as Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, this weapon keeps working.

The Shia Coordination Framework dropped Maliki (US-vetoed) and nominated businessman Ali al-Zaidi after Trump threatened to cut off Iraq entirely and froze security cooperation and dollar shipments to Baghdad 9CRD Iraq's Shia bloc picks newcomer as PM amid US pressure to 'compromise'. An Iraqi political source told AFP the Framework endorsed Zaidi "after checking" with US representatives 9CRD Iraq's Shia bloc picks newcomer as PM amid US pressure to 'compromise'. That is about as blunt a description of American leverage over Iraqi politics as you will find in years of reporting. Washington is actively reshaping the regional map while the ceasefire holds, which is not nothing.

Around 20,000 sailors, mostly Indian, have been stuck on vessels in the Persian Gulf for up to eight weeks 14TOI Around 20,000 seafarers stranded in Persian Gulf as Hormuz stays shut despite ceasefire. Transit through Hormuz dropped from 130-plus ships per day before the war to roughly 80 per week in mid-April 14TOI Around 20,000 seafarers stranded in Persian Gulf as Hormuz stays shut despite ceasefire. At least 10 seafarers have been killed since fighting started, per the UN 14TOI Around 20,000 seafarers stranded in Persian Gulf as Hormuz stays shut despite ceasefire. The insurance problem means the strait reopening and the strait being usable are two different events: war-risk premiums could jump to 5 percent of hull value, and US mine-clearing is estimated at six months 10AJE When will Strait of Hormuz be ‘safe’ for commercial shipping again?. Anyone expecting an oil price collapse the day a deal is announced is probably wrong.