THE HOUTHIS TAKE MOCHA AND THE SECOND CHOKEPOINT COMES INTO RANGE

• The IAEA board has formally reported Iran to the UN Security Council. It is the first such resolution in 20 years, passed with at least 23 votes in favour and Russia, China and Niger against 9CNN Cameras disabled, inspectors blocked: Nuclear watchdog asks for help with Iran13AJE IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) believes Iran holds about 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for roughly 10 weapons if enriched further 13AJE IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’. Council action is unlikely because Russia and China hold vetoes 13AJE IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’, and in a joint statement with Iran they called the resolution legally baseless 15MHR Iran, China, Russia reject E3, US drafted res. at IAEA Board. Tehran had warned it would retaliate if the vote passed 13AJE IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’. One Carnegie Endowment physicist told CNN he now sees "a 50-50 chance that Iran gets the bomb" within three years 9CNN Cameras disabled, inspectors blocked: Nuclear watchdog asks for help with Iran.

• The numbers from Jordan and the tanker strikes do not match. CBS reports the Iranian strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base left one A-10 with severe wing damage and about eight F-15s lightly damaged, with more than 30 Patriot interceptors fired in defence 5RTN US warplanes damaged in Iranian strike on key airbase, CBS. A Trump administration official called the same attack "ineffective" 17AJE What is Jordan’s Al-Azraq base and why is Iran targeting it?, and US Central Command (CENTCOM) has not confirmed any damage 5RTN US warplanes damaged in Iranian strike on key airbase, CBS. On tankers, CENTCOM has confirmed eight destroyed in two operations, Trump says "about nine," and Rubio says of Tuesday's five that "four were damaged. One was sunk" 12RTN Trump vows to hit ‘a lot more’ Iranian tankers. "Destroyed" is doing a lot of work in those statements.

• Iran has been buying Chinese goods, including air defence equipment, with oil credits. Reuters sources describe a barter-like mechanism in which Iranian crude is exchanged for credits for Chinese imports, used for medicines, vehicles and communications gear, and at least once for air defence equipment worth millions 4JPM Iran dodges sanctions using barter system to buy billions of dollars of Chinese goods. Reuters could not verify the transactions. It also could not say how the arrangement survives the blockade, since no Iranian crude has reached China through Hormuz since mid-July 4JPM Iran dodges sanctions using barter system to buy billions of dollars of Chinese goods.

• Israel answered the sanctions with more settlements. A day after 12 Western countries announced settlement trade restrictions, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich unveiled 1,000 new housing units in the Kida and Havat settlements in the northern West Bank, calling it "another historic step in the settlement revolution" 14AAM Extremist Israeli minister unveils 1,000 new settlement units after trade sanctions. If the sanctions were meant to slow settlement growth, the first response was to speed it up.

• A new documentary puts Israeli insiders on camera about Gaza. NAZA, from Oscar-winning Israeli directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, premiered at Venice with testimony from 24 Israeli military and intelligence insiders 2GDN Secret systems used by Israel in mass killings of Gaza civilians revealed in new film. They describe AI-based systems to generate large numbers of low-ranking Hamas targets who were bombed at home at night despite the knowledge their families would die, and neighbourhoods destroyed while up to 25 percent of residents were estimated to still be inside 2GDN Secret systems used by Israel in mass killings of Gaza civilians revealed in new film. One interviewee from a unit reporting to the prime minister's office said its mission was to "thwart peace" 2GDN Secret systems used by Israel in mass killings of Gaza civilians revealed in new film.

This was the day markets stopped treating the war as a contained oil story. Brent jumped about 6 percent to $106.70 and WTI went through $100. Heating oil, the diesel proxy, crossed $5. The Oil Volatility Index leapt roughly 16 percent, so fear is back after weeks of complacency.

The tell is what fell. Gold slipped, silver dropped about 5 percent and copper about 5 percent. Industrial metals falling while oil soars is the market pricing slower growth alongside an energy shock, and the US 10-year yield climbing to 4.92 percent says investors expect inflation and tighter money rather than a rush to safety. That combination has a name, and it is not a pleasant one.

Israel's TA-125 fell about 1.4 percent and the shekel weakened. Tanker operator Frontline rose another 3 percent: somebody still profits from ships that can charge for the risk.

Trump has now told Americans directly that relief at the pump is on hold. He said oil prices will not come down until after the 3 November midterms, and that the war will end "immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer" 7BBM Iran war won't end until after crucial November elections, says Trump. He also claimed, without evidence, that Iran is trying to swing the election 7BBM Iran war won't end until after crucial November elections, says Trump. By his own account, people are telling him "I wish you didn't do the war in Iran. Now gasoline is up" 7BBM Iran war won't end until after crucial November elections, says Trump.

That timeline sits awkwardly with what his own team is saying in private. The Wall Street Journal reports that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both warned in closed-door discussions that Iran could withstand the blockade and other military pressure, and that the war could last until the end of Trump's term in 2029 10YNT Trump was warned: Iran war could last until end of his term in 2029.

At the Republican convention in Dallas, Trump promised a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult American if Republicans win both chambers of Congress 6BBC Trump pledges $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans win November elections. With nearly 270 million adults, that would cost around $1.3 trillion, and he gave no detail on how it would be funded or approved 6BBC Trump pledges $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans win November elections. It is a campaign pledge built on top of a price shock he says cannot be fixed until after the votes are counted.

For Europe and Asia, the quieter number is gas. No liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers left Hormuz on Wednesday, and the near-halt of traffic has removed about a fifth of the world's seaborne LNG supply from the market 3CRD Hormuz crossings drop to single digits as more vessels go 'dark'.