THE SECOND CHOKEPOINT IS NOW IN PLAY

Houthi forces claim Mocha, the city of Hays and the largest military base in the region, with the government commander on the west coast admitting a "strategic retreat" 1GDN Houthis seize key Yemeni port of Mocha in drive to take control of Red Sea coast. About 50 miles south is Perim Island, at the point where the Bab al-Mandab narrows to 12 miles 8CNN Exclusive: This small island off Yemen is now a strategic prize in the widening Iran war. Since Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia has shipped its oil out through the Red Sea instead 8CNN Exclusive: This small island off Yemen is now a strategic prize in the widening Iran war, and on Wednesday 28 commodity vessels used the Bab al-Mandab against just seven through Hormuz 3CRD Hormuz crossings drop to single digits as more vessels go 'dark'. The workaround route is the one now under threat.

Pakistan passed Iran a Saudi warning to rein in the Houthis, and a senior Iranian official answered that "Iran does not control the Houthis" 11YNT Pakistan delivers Saudi warning to Iran: Rein in the Houthis. Two Iranian sources then told Reuters that Tehran instructed the Houthis last week to strike Saudi Arabia, promised funding and weapons, and sent IRGC commanders to Yemen to coordinate 11YNT Pakistan delivers Saudi warning to Iran: Rein in the Houthis. That is anonymous sourcing, so hold it loosely, but it matches what Yemen's government commander says about the offensive being planned by Iran 1GDN Houthis seize key Yemeni port of Mocha in drive to take control of Red Sea coast. Meanwhile the IRGC says its restricted maritime zone now reaches from Chabahar into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea 16CRD IRGC expands ‘restricted maritime zone’ to include Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea.

The IAEA board voted at least 23 to 3 to report Iran for non-compliance, with Russia, China and Niger against 9CNN Cameras disabled, inspectors blocked: Nuclear watchdog asks for help with Iran13AJE IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’. The agency believes Iran holds around 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for roughly 10 weapons if enriched further 13AJE IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’. Nothing much will happen at the Council, where Moscow and Beijing hold vetoes and have already called the resolution legally baseless 15MHR Iran, China, Russia reject E3, US drafted res. at IAEA Board. A Carnegie physicist put the odds of Iran getting a bomb within three years at 50-50 9CNN Cameras disabled, inspectors blocked: Nuclear watchdog asks for help with Iran, which is not a number anyone should be comfortable with.

CBS says the Iranian missile strike on Jordans Muwaffaq Salti air base left one A-10 with severe wing damage and about eight F-15s lightly damaged, with more than 30 Patriot interceptors fired 5RTN US warplanes damaged in Iranian strike on key airbase, CBS. A Trump administration official called the same attack "ineffective" 17AJE What is Jordan’s Al-Azraq base and why is Iran targeting it?, and CENTCOM has confirmed nothing 5RTN US warplanes damaged in Iranian strike on key airbase, CBS. The tanker tally is similarly fuzzy: CENTCOM confirms eight destroyed, Trump says "about nine," and Rubio describes Tuesdays five as four damaged and one sunk 12RTN Trump vows to hit ‘a lot more’ Iranian tankers.

Brent rose about 6 percent, WTI went through $100 and the oil volatility index jumped 16 percent. The revealing part is that gold slipped while silver and copper each fell around 5 percent and the US 10-year yield climbed to 4.92 percent. Industrial metals down, energy up, yields up: that is the market pricing slower growth and stickier inflation at the same time. Trump, for his part, says petrol prices will not fall until after the election 7BBM Iran war won't end until after crucial November elections, says Trump, and has offered every adult American $5,000 if Republicans win both chambers 6BBC Trump pledges $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans win November elections.