TWO SHIPS HIT IN HORMUZ THE DAY BEFORE IRAN'S BIG MEETING

• The army that lost Mocha was largely fictional. A Western source with knowledge of anti-Houthi operations told CNN that Yemeni battalions in Mocha were filled with "ghost names," soldiers who drew salaries but did not exist, leaving the force at roughly 20 percent of its paper strength 6JPO Yemeni army rosters filled with 'ghost names,' leaving Mocha vulnerable to Houthi takeover - report. One regional source called the collapse "a Saudi-American f*** up of epic proportions," saying there was not a single Saudi airstrike during the day of the attack despite minute-by-minute updates: "The Saudis threw the Yemenis under the bus" 6JPO Yemeni army rosters filled with 'ghost names,' leaving Mocha vulnerable to Houthi takeover - report. A senior Yemeni official says he warned CENTCOM repeatedly that the situation was critical 6JPO Yemeni army rosters filled with 'ghost names,' leaving Mocha vulnerable to Houthi takeover - report. Analyst Mohammed al-Basha points instead at the anti-Houthi coalition's own incoherence: "There's no united command and control in Yemen" 6JPO Yemeni army rosters filled with 'ghost names,' leaving Mocha vulnerable to Houthi takeover - report.

• The Houthis called Washington to ask it to stay out. "The Houthis called us, and they don't want to fight with us," Trump said in Ireland, adding they "would much prefer not having us involved" 13RTN Houthis asked US to stay out of Saudi fight, Trump (VIDEOS). He also said the group is letting most shipping through the Red Sea and that "it's just one country that they're not too happy with" 13RTN Houthis asked US to stay out of Saudi fight, Trump (VIDEOS). Houthi spokesman Mohammed al-Bukhaiti told RT they target only "the Saudi enemy" and are committed to protecting navigation, while warning Yemen could fight "up to three fronts" if outsiders join Riyadh 13RTN Houthis asked US to stay out of Saudi fight, Trump (VIDEOS). A group that can offer Washington safe passage while strangling one specific country has found real leverage.

• Saudi Arabia is running out of non-terrible options. Riyadh does not want an all-out war but may be dragged into one, analysts told CNN, with Yemen specialist Mohammed Al-Basha saying all signs "point to a large-scale Saudi retaliation, and that likelihood is increasing by the day" 1CNN The Saudis have few options against the surging Houthis and none are good ones. The Houthis' price is unchanged: lift the blockade on the north. Their news agency chief says they will keep "pressuring" Riyadh until they "break the siege unjustly imposed by the Saudi enemy for 12 years" 1CNN The Saudis have few options against the surging Houthis and none are good ones. A Saudi official told CNN last month the kingdom was bracing for "multiple coordinated attacks" by Iraqi militias working with the Houthis, which is roughly what the past week has looked like 1CNN The Saudis have few options against the surging Houthis and none are good ones. More than 45,000 Yemenis have fled the fighting, many with nothing: "We took only the clothes we were wearing" 14YNT ‘We took only the clothes we wore’: Tens of thousands flee Houthi-held areas in Yemen.

• Iranian lawmakers are pushing to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty. A group of MPs has signed a three-urgency plan to withdraw from the treaty, and the spokesman for parliament's presiding board said leaving and revising Iran's nuclear doctrine is "a completely achievable and readily attainable step," because "only the logic of power works with the United States" 9MHR Iran can easily withdraw from NPT, revise nuclear doctrine. Parliament is not the decision-maker here, but this is the first concrete legislative move since the IAEA board referred Iran to the Security Council last week. Meanwhile Rosatom says 47 Russian specialists have returned to the Bushehr plant and it plans to raise that to 150 8MHR Russia expands nuclear team at Iran's Bushehr plant.

• Hegseth's office pushed the rescued F-15 crew onto "60 Minutes." Political appointees in the defence secretary's office were adamant that both airmen shot down over Iran in April sit for interviews, though both had reservations and military officials worried about classified details, according to CNN's sources 17CNN Exclusive: Inside Hegseth’s push to showcase a dramatic Iran rescue on ‘60 Minutes’. Hegseth met the pair privately; one agreed, one refused 17CNN Exclusive: Inside Hegseth’s push to showcase a dramatic Iran rescue on ‘60 Minutes’. The Pentagon's chief spokesman called the story "a complete lie" and said the decision was each pilot's alone 17CNN Exclusive: Inside Hegseth’s push to showcase a dramatic Iran rescue on ‘60 Minutes’. Either way, it shows how hard the department is working to shape the story of a war that polls badly.

Markets are closed, so Friday's numbers still stand: Brent near $104.60 after a week that touched $108 at one point, according to Indian officials at the BRICS summit 10MHR BRICS agrees to safeguard energy flows as oil prices soar, and the Oil Volatility Index parked near 59.

The BRICS bloc did put out a line on energy, with India's foreign secretary saying members agreed they "have to work together to maintain smooth flow of global trade, supply chains, and energy supplies" 10MHR BRICS agrees to safeguard energy flows as oil prices soar. No mechanism, no commitments, but the world's largest oil buyers saying supply must keep moving is at least a signal that the demand side is getting nervous.

The real open question for Monday is whether the East-West pipeline outage and two more ships hit in Hormuz outweigh the possibility of a Gulf agreement on shipping routes. Traders will be pricing a meeting that Iran has already said will not reopen anything.

Trump's answer to pump prices is to build refineries, and the industry is politely explaining why that will not work. No significant new US refinery has been built since 1977, there are half as many as in 1982, and even a construction boom starting tomorrow would take years 5CNN Why Trump’s effort to build more refineries won’t lower gas prices. Oil companies will not commit billions on the assumption that this disruption lasts: "What's the Strait of Hormuz going to look like in four to five years?" one analyst asked 5CNN Why Trump’s effort to build more refineries won’t lower gas prices.

The more useful diagnosis is that this is a refining crisis, not just a crude crisis. ExxonMobil's chief executive says that after 35 years of excess refining capacity, "now we have a refinery constraint," so pump prices are being set by product supply rather than crude 5CNN Why Trump’s effort to build more refineries won’t lower gas prices. Roughly two million barrels a day of refined supply has been lost between Russia and the Middle East 5CNN Why Trump’s effort to build more refineries won’t lower gas prices. That is why diesel keeps setting records even on days when crude falls.

BRICS, for its part, could not agree on much. The New Delhi declaration urged "maximum restraint" and condemned attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities while assigning blame to nobody 4BBC Iran war reshapes Brics ties but also exposes divisions. Modi told members to be "rule-shapers, not rule-takers"; he also insisted the group is "not against anyone" 4BBC Iran war reshapes Brics ties but also exposes divisions. Note who was in the room: Iran's president and the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, a country Iran has been firing missiles at 4BBC Iran war reshapes Brics ties but also exposes divisions.