THE HOUTHIS SET SAUDI ENERGY SITES ON FIRE AND THE YEMEN TRUCE IS GONE

• Iran's oil money is running out faster than most people realise. No Iranian crude has crossed the US blockade since mid-July, according to Kpler data reported by the Wall Street Journal, and the oil Iran parked on tankers outside it has fallen from about 90 million barrels to 29 million 12YNT Report: Iran’s offshore oil stockpile could run out by October as US blockade dries up revenues. At current delivery rates that runs out by mid-October, with payments drying up by mid-December. Official inflation is above 80 percent and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the economy to shrink 5.4 percent this year 12YNT Report: Iran’s offshore oil stockpile could run out by October as US blockade dries up revenues. Tehran has just doubled the petrol price for anyone using more than 110 litres a month 10AJE As fuel prices rise again, Iran’s government urges citizens to cut back. The last time Iran raised fuel prices sharply, in 2019, it triggered huge antigovernment protests 10AJE As fuel prices rise again, Iran’s government urges citizens to cut back.

• A former president is asking the question hardliners do not want asked. Hassan Rouhani said the regime should let the public decide whether to keep fighting if a ceasefire meets Iran's demands, asking what happens "if the people do not accept" another 20 years of confronting the big powers 5JPO Iran's ex-president Rouhani urges public say on ending war, prompting calls for arrest. The editor of Kayhan called for him to be investigated, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked Tasnim accused him of "pouring water into the enemy's mill" 5JPO Iran's ex-president Rouhani urges public say on ending war, prompting calls for arrest. This comes weeks after former president Mohammad Khatami praised the now-expired Islamabad memorandum of understanding 5JPO Iran's ex-president Rouhani urges public say on ending war, prompting calls for arrest. Two ex-presidents breaking ranks is not a revolt, but it is a visible crack in the wartime consensus.

• Britain has just delivered the harshest condemnation of Israel in its history. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband told the Commons that "settler terrorists" are carrying out ethnic cleansing in parts of the West Bank with members of the Israeli government supporting forced displacement, and that the UK now regards the occupation as unlawful in its entirety 1GDN UK accuses Israeli ‘terrorists’ of ethnic cleansing in West Bank with government backing. The package includes an import ban on settlement goods, sanctions on services such as construction and financing, personal sanctions, and new limits on exports that "materially contribute to the occupation" 1GDN UK accuses Israeli ‘terrorists’ of ethnic cleansing in West Bank with government backing. France and Canada announced settlement goods bans the same day. Legislation is expected within nine months, and Miliband stopped short of calling Gaza a genocide 1GDN UK accuses Israeli ‘terrorists’ of ethnic cleansing in West Bank with government backing.

• The Pentagon is quietly planning for a smaller Middle East. US military and intelligence officials are informally discussing cuts to permanent personnel and facilities in the region, according to a CNN report citing six sources 11AAM US officials discuss smaller Mideast footprint after Iran conflict: CNN. The same report says a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) outpost in Riyadh was effectively destroyed by Iranian strikes and that Washington may not rebuild some damaged sites at all 11AAM US officials discuss smaller Mideast footprint after Iran conflict: CNN. That planning sits awkwardly next to reporting that Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth is extending troop deployments into 2027 while Trump weighs simply declaring the war over 17ABC Trump weighs declaring protracted war over, but Iran has other plans.

• Lebanon's ceasefire is a ceasefire in name. Lebanon's Health Ministry says 27 civilians were killed and 69 wounded in Israeli strikes between Friday evening and Monday morning, and more than 4,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since March 6RTN Israeli strikes kill dozens of civilians in Lebanon (VIDEO). RT's correspondent says the strikes hit an amusement park, a hospital and a residential building; Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah 6RTN Israeli strikes kill dozens of civilians in Lebanon (VIDEO). Israeli and Lebanese negotiators are due to meet again on 15 and 16 September 6RTN Israeli strikes kill dozens of civilians in Lebanon (VIDEO).

Markets believe the war is spreading, not winding down. Brent has climbed about $3.50 in a week and nearly $14 in a month, and the Guardian had it above $99 on Tuesday as the Saudi strikes landed 3GDN Houthis strike Saudi Arabian cities in significant expansion of Middle East war. The Gold/Oil ratio keeps sliding, which tells you the fear is about physical supply, not a generalised flight to safety.

The interesting tell is that the Oil Volatility Index has fallen well below where it was a month ago even as prices rose. Traders are no longer surprised by expensive oil. They are pricing it as the new normal.

Frontline, the tanker operator, is up roughly 17 percent on the month. Israel's TA-125 slipped about 1 percent on the day Britain announced its sanctions package, though a single session is not enough to pin that on London.

Americans drove into the Labor Day weekend paying a record $4.14 a gallon for regular gas, nearly a dollar more than last year and well above the previous holiday record of $3.82 set in 2012 16CRD War on Iran pushes US Labor Day gas prices to record $4.14 a gallon. Diesel hit a record $5.85 on Friday, and diesel is what moves food across the country by truck 16CRD War on Iran pushes US Labor Day gas prices to record $4.14 a gallon. Asked for a timeline on $3 gas, Vice President JD Vance declined to give one 16CRD War on Iran pushes US Labor Day gas prices to record $4.14 a gallon. With the Saudi south now under fire, that answer is not getting easier before November's midterms.

The US is also running short of something allies are counting on. Only about 36 percent of the pre-war Patriot interceptor inventory remains, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates, and deliveries to some foreign buyers are already delayed as Washington rebuilds its own stocks 4FOX US rebuilding weapons stockpile could delay orders from allies. Raytheon says 19 nations rely on Patriot for air defence 4FOX US rebuilding weapons stockpile could delay orders from allies. Every interceptor fired over the Gulf is one that is not going to partners like Ukraine or Taiwan.

One more cost is creeping onto Western supply chains: Somali piracy is back at levels not seen in a decade, with eight hijackings since late April, as navies that once patrolled the Horn of Africa have been diverted to Hormuz and the Red Sea 13GDN Hijacking pirates exploit regional chaos to return to seas off Somalia. About 70 percent of the traffic that once used the Red Sea now sails around the Cape of Good Hope 13GDN Hijacking pirates exploit regional chaos to return to seas off Somalia, and the longer route runs right past Somalia's coast.