TRUMP SAYS "OVER THE WEEKEND" AND IRAN SAYS "NO PROGRESS." BOTH ARE PROBABLY TELLING THE TRUTH.

• Israel carried out drone strikes in southern Lebanon's Nabatieh area on Thursday morning, hours after signing a renewed ceasefire framework with Lebanon in Washington 4GDN Israel and Lebanon agree to renew ceasefire as Trump seeks to overcome barriers to Iran deal 9AAM 1 paramedic killed, another wounded as Israel targets ambulance in southern Lebanon. An Israeli strike hit an ambulance team in Zebdine, killing one paramedic and wounding another, the fourth Israeli attack on medical personnel or facilities in less than 24 hours according to Lebanon's Health Ministry 9AAM 1 paramedic killed, another wounded as Israel targets ambulance in southern Lebanon. The total death toll in Lebanon since March 2 stands at 3,516. Hezbollah is not party to the Washington talks and has said it will not accept a partial ceasefire 4GDN Israel and Lebanon agree to renew ceasefire as Trump seeks to overcome barriers to Iran deal. None of this is new behaviour, but the optics of signing a ceasefire and striking ambulances the same morning are doing real diplomatic damage.

• The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework creates "pilot zones" where Lebanese Armed Forces would take exclusive territorial control, excluding all non-state actors 7TOI Israel and Lebanon agree to renew truce, create ‘pilot’ zones where Hezbollah is banned. This is structurally similar to the 2024 ceasefire framework, which Israel violated more than 10,000 times in 15 months before the current war began 4GDN Israel and Lebanon agree to renew ceasefire as Trump seeks to overcome barriers to Iran deal. The joint statement notably does not mention when Israeli troops will withdraw from the at least 608 square kilometres of Lebanese territory they currently occupy 4GDN Israel and Lebanon agree to renew ceasefire as Trump seeks to overcome barriers to Iran deal. Iran insists Lebanon and the nuclear file are inseparable; Washington is explicitly trying to separate them. That tension is not resolved by a joint statement.

• Oman is publicly resisting US pressure to break ties with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz 6GDN Oman resists US pressure to break ties with Iran over strait of Hormuz. Rubio told the Senate foreign relations committee Tuesday that Oman "flirted with" supporting Iran's position on the strait, and Trump last week threatened to bomb the sultanate. Oman's Washington ambassador held emergency calls with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to clarify its position 6GDN Oman resists US pressure to break ties with Iran over strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, is framing its Persian Gulf Strait Authority fees as an environmental remediation charge rather than a toll, specifically to make the mechanism more palatable to Oman and more defensible under international law 6GDN Oman resists US pressure to break ties with Iran over strait of Hormuz. That is a sophisticated legal manoeuvre that deserves more attention than it is getting.

• Iran's Navy claimed to have targeted a command-and-control centre aboard a US destroyer in the Sea of Oman 12MHR Iran Navy targets 'command center' aboard US destroyer. US Central Command denied the claim within minutes 5GLT Trump says U.S., Iran to jointly dig out Iran's buried nuclear material. This is the same pattern from the Day 96 exchange. The Iranian state broadcaster framed it as retaliation for US "violations of regulations" governing the strait and "hostile acts" against Iranian commercial vessels 12MHR Iran Navy targets 'command center' aboard US destroyer. The IRGC separately claimed the Kuwait airport damage was caused by a failed US Patriot missile interceptor, not an Iranian projectile 11MHR US patriot missile behind destruction in Kuwait airport. That claim remains unconfirmed by any independent source and should be treated with scepticism, though it was raised in today's source material and warrants flagging.

• The House war powers resolution now moves to the Senate, where a similar measure advanced in May but has not yet had a full floor vote 1BBC Trump hits back at 'unpatriotic' vote after House rebukes him over Iran 8GDN US House passes war powers resolution to curb Trump’s authority in Iran. Even if the Senate passes it, the White House has called it unconstitutional, and legal experts are divided on whether a concurrent resolution carries the force of law without presidential signature 2AJE US House votes to end Trump’s Iran war: Does it matter?. Trump's response was to call the four Republican dissenters "grandstanders" and invoke Trump Derangement Syndrome 1BBC Trump hits back at 'unpatriotic' vote after House rebukes him over Iran. The practical effect is close to zero. The political signal is not: Republican defections on war powers, however small, are now a documented pattern rather than a one-off event.

The overnight session told a notable story: Brent crude dropped sharply from $98 to $93, a five-dollar fall, which looks like relief on the diplomatic headlines. But almost nothing else moved in a "relief" direction. The S&P 500 fell from 7,570 to 7,398, the VIX (expected equity volatility) jumped from 16 to 19.5, gold dropped, silver dropped, and Bitcoin fell to $59,415, its lowest point in the available data series. That is a broad risk-off move, not a peace rally. The most likely read: markets are pricing in a growing probability that the deal does not close on the timeline Trump is advertising, and that the political and economic costs keep compounding. The Israeli shekel weakened and the TA-125 has now lost nearly five percent over the past week. Defence stocks ticked quietly higher across all names, which is the market's honest assessment of where the weekend is likely to go.

The House war powers vote, however symbolic legally, reflects something real: American public opposition to the war is rising and petrol prices are the mechanism 1BBC Trump hits back at 'unpatriotic' vote after House rebukes him over Iran 8GDN US House passes war powers resolution to curb Trump’s authority in Iran. Polls showing low public support for the war are now cited regularly by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. The ceasefire's instability, the ongoing Gulf exchanges, and the collapse of previous deal timelines are starting to erode the political insulation that war-time presidential authority normally provides. If the Senate also passes its version of the resolution, the White House's ability to frame congressional dissent as fringe behaviour becomes harder to sustain.