ISLAMABAD TALKS HIT A HORMUZ STALEMATE, BUT THE ROOM IS STILL OPEN

• Iran's new Supreme Leader is severely disfigured and has not been seen publicly since February 28. Reuters, citing three anonymous sources from Khamenei's inner circle, confirms leg and face injuries from the opening strikes 1FOX Iran's supreme leader severely disfigured by US strikes: report. He is described as "mentally sharp" and in communication with the Islamabad delegation, but sources say he may not appear publicly for another month or two, and only if "health and security conditions allow" 1FOX Iran's supreme leader severely disfigured by US strikes: report. This matters because the man nominally authorising every Iranian red line in these talks cannot show his face. That weakens his domestic legitimacy at precisely the moment he most needs it.

• Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles and may be able to restore damaged launchers. A Wall Street Journal intelligence assessment, confirmed by US and Israeli officials, says Iran retains over 1,000 medium-range missiles from a pre-war stockpile of roughly 2,500 10IHY Reoprt: Iran still has thousands of missiles, can restore launchers. More than half of its launchers were damaged, destroyed, or buried, but some underground facilities built inside mountains were not successfully penetrated and could be recovered 6CRD China set to deliver new missile defense systems to Iran: Report10IHY Reoprt: Iran still has thousands of missiles, can restore launchers. Pete Hegseth's "functionally destroyed" claim does not hold up against the intelligence community's own assessment, and it is their assessment, not his press conferences, that will shape Iran's negotiating leverage.

• China is reportedly preparing to deliver MANPADs to Iran within weeks. A US intelligence assessment cited by CNN says shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems are being readied for delivery 6CRD China set to deliver new missile defense systems to Iran: Report. China's embassy denied it. This is a single-source claim and the denial is on record. But if accurate, it means China is simultaneously pushing Iran toward a ceasefire deal and rearming it for the next round. That is not contradictory from Beijing's perspective: a weaker Iran that still exists is more useful than either a collapsed Iran or a US-controlled one.

• Pakistani warplanes have deployed to Saudi Arabia under their mutual defence pact. The deployment, confirmed by the Saudi defence ministry, is framed as routine cooperation 4CRD Pakistani warplanes land in Saudi Arabia as part of mutual defense pact. It is not routine. Pakistan is simultaneously hosting the Iran-US talks, receiving $5 billion in emergency financial support from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and deploying its air force to the kingdom 4CRD Pakistani warplanes land in Saudi Arabia as part of mutual defense pact. Islamabad is threading a needle between its role as neutral mediator and its dependence on Gulf Arab states who want Iran contained. The financial pressure makes that needle smaller every day.

• Israel rejected any ceasefire discussion with Hezbollah ahead of next week's Washington talks. Israeli ambassador Yechiel Leiter confirmed Lebanon negotiations would begin at the State Department on Tuesday but ruled out any Hezbollah involvement 9AJE Israel rejects ceasefire with Hezbollah before Lebanon talks next week. The US and Lebanon have reportedly asked Israel to pause strikes before the talks, and Netanyahu has not yet responded 12SPK US, Lebanon Ask Israel to Pause Attacks on Lebanese Territory Ahead of Talks - Reports. Lebanon has killed over 2,020 people since March 2 by Israeli strikes 2CRD First phase of Iran-US talks in Islamabad wraps up amid reports of Hormuz 'stalemate'. Iran insists a region-wide ceasefire is a condition for successful Islamabad negotiations, not merely a request. Those two positions are still not reconciled.

The AP's live coverage noted that oil prices eased ahead of the talks and stocks wavered, with the US government reporting the biggest inflation spike in four years driven by gas prices 20APW Live updates: Kuwait blames Iran for drone strikes as Trump casts doubt on ceasefire. Markets appear to have priced in a deal getting done, at least partially. The Hormuz stalemate reported by the FT is the number that should be moving prices but probably is not yet, because it only surfaced Saturday. If Monday opens with no resolution from the "final attempt" Saturday night round, expect oil to respond. The disconnect between the optimism priced in and the difficulty visible on the ground is the gap worth watching.

The inflation data is no longer theoretical. The AP confirmed the US government reported its biggest inflation spike in four years, driven directly by gas prices 20APW Live updates: Kuwait blames Iran for drone strikes as Trump casts doubt on ceasefire. The war's economic damage is landing in consumer wallets at scale. In Australia, Prime Minister Albanese secured a "maximum efforts" fuel supply deal with Singapore but was explicit that it is not legally binding and that refineries could still scale back production as crude tightens 16ABC Australia and Singapore aim to meet fuel supply needs as crisis continues. Singapore supplies about a quarter of Australia's petrol; the trip is a sign that governments are quietly preparing for the scenario where the ceasefire collapses and Hormuz closes again. In India, the Morbi ceramic tile hub, which produces over 80 percent of India's tiles, has been almost entirely shuttered for weeks due to fuel shortages, with only four or five factories out of 650-700 still operational 18APW Photos from Morbi, a ceramic tile hub left cold and dark by the Iran war. In Bangladesh, a country of 177 million people, fuel queues now stretch through the night and the government is capping shopping mall hours to reduce energy demand, while officially denying any shortage exists 8RTN Three weeks of fuel, 170 million people: Inside Bangladesh’s worsening fuel shortage.