ISLAMABAD TALKS BEGIN WITH THE CORE QUESTION STILL UNANSWERED

• Iran is formally capping Hormuz at 15 ships per day, with IRGC approval required for each transit. A senior Iranian source told Russia's TASS this arrangement is now "officially communicated to regional parties" and there will be "no return to the pre-war status quo" 2CRD Iran restricts Hormuz access to 15 vessels per day under ceasefire terms: Report. Pre-war traffic was around 138 vessels daily. This is not a temporary wartime measure being described as one. Tehran is treating Hormuz as a lever it now permanently controls, regardless of how Islamabad goes.

• Iran has tied Hormuz to asset unfreezing, on a two-week deadline. The same source linked the 15-vessel regime to a demand that Iran's blocked financial assets be unfrozen within the current two-week ceasefire window 2CRD Iran restricts Hormuz access to 15 vessels per day under ceasefire terms: Report. This is a concrete financial demand with a specific timeline, and it sits inside a negotiation that hasn't formally started yet. If Washington doesn't move on assets, Tehran has given itself a reason to close Hormuz again without technically violating any written agreement.

• The US burned through more Tomahawks in four weeks than it buys in a year, and is now scrambling. Pentagon budget documents show the Navy fired over 850 Tomahawk missiles in the first four weeks of the war 11SPK US Supercharges Tomahawk Orders Amid Iran War Drain. Current-year procurement is 55 missiles. The FY2027 request is 785, at a cost of $3 billion, plus a $1.5 billion upgrade request, a 217 percent increase over this year 11SPK US Supercharges Tomahawk Orders Amid Iran War Drain. This is the US telling you, in budget language, that it came very close to exhausting a critical weapons inventory. The Army is requesting a 33-fold funding increase for its ground-based missile launcher program compared to this year 11SPK US Supercharges Tomahawk Orders Amid Iran War Drain. These are not aspirational numbers. They are an acknowledgment of a serious readiness gap.

• Iran-linked hackers have successfully disrupted US oil, gas, and water sites. A federal advisory from the FBI and DHS this week confirmed Iranian hackers caused industrial shutdowns at multiple US critical infrastructure facilities, forcing some processes to run manually 20CNN Iran-linked hackers have disrupted multiple US industrial sites. The hackers targeted programmable logic controllers and in some cases attempted to deploy destructive "wiper" malware 20CNN Iran-linked hackers have disrupted multiple US industrial sites. This is Iran doing what Iranian missiles cannot: reaching inside US borders. One cybersecurity expert described it as a "notable extension of adversary capability and intent" 20CNN Iran-linked hackers have disrupted multiple US industrial sites. Worth taking seriously as a persistent threat that does not go away with a ceasefire.

• The UAE is demanding Pakistan repay a $3.5 billion loan, in what looks like punishment for Islamabad's mediation role. Abu Dhabi has acknowledged Pakistan's mediating role publicly while privately refusing to condemn Israeli aggression, and reportedly advocated at a March Riyadh meeting for defeating Iran "by any means necessary," with Emirati officials allegedly floating the possibility of nuclear use 3CRD UAE - Pakistan rift sharpens as Iran war exposes fault lines. This report is single-source (The Cradle) and the nuclear-use allegation should be treated with caution, but the underlying UAE-Pakistan rupture is confirmed through multiple channels. Pakistan's emergence as a diplomatic power broker is costing it economically among Gulf states that have different interests.

The Fed's March meeting minutes, released this week, show a growing number of policymakers are now seriously considering rate hikes, not cuts 18APW Rising gas prices push Fed to weigh interest rate hike. Iran war-driven gas prices are the direct cause, with "many" officials flagging that sustained high energy prices could keep inflation elevated "longer than expected" 18APW Rising gas prices push Fed to weigh interest rate hike. Markets had been pricing in rate cuts through late 2027; that expectation has now been pushed back 18APW Rising gas prices push Fed to weigh interest rate hike. The IMF is separately confirming it will downgrade global growth forecasts next Tuesday, and its managing director said explicitly: "Had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth" 1AJE IMF warns of looming inflation crisis on back of US-Israel war on Iran. March inflation figures are due Friday, with economists forecasting a 0.9 percent monthly jump and a 3.4 percent annual rate, up from 2.4 percent in February 18APW Rising gas prices push Fed to weigh interest rate hike. That number lands today. If it comes in hot, the rate hike conversation accelerates fast.

The inflation hit is arriving in the data, not just the forecasts. US gas prices spiked through the war and the Fed is now openly discussing rate hikes to contain the damage, a position it has not held for years 18APW Rising gas prices push Fed to weigh interest rate hike. The IMF is downgrading the global growth outlook next Tuesday, and the fund's managing director is clear that even a held ceasefire doesn't reverse the damage already done to energy infrastructure, fertiliser supply chains, and business confidence 1AJE IMF warns of looming inflation crisis on back of US-Israel war on Iran. Turkey's energy minister described the current crisis as "the mother of all crises," worse in scale than the post-COVID energy shock or the Russia-Ukraine disruption, and noted that Europe's gas storage stands at just 28 percent capacity compared to Turkey's 72 percent 8AJE Global energy crisis is ‘the mother of all crises’: Turkish energy minister. European consumers heading into this are less buffered than their governments have been saying publicly.