THE CEASEFIRE IS BEING KILLED BY THE LEBANON QUESTION

• Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written ceasefire order, but has still not appeared on camera. The statement, read on Iranian state television, said "this is not the end of the war, but all military units must obey orders" 15IHY Mojtaba Khamenei in written message: 'All units must cease fire'. The Times reported Wednesday that he remains hospitalised in Qom and possibly in a coma 15IHY Mojtaba Khamenei in written message: 'All units must cease fire'. Iran is running a war and a ceasefire negotiation with a Supreme Leader whose physical condition is genuinely unknown. That is not a stable foundation for a two-week negotiation.

• Gulf states absorbed a massive attack on the first day of the ceasefire. UAE intercepted 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones; Kuwait intercepted 42 drones and 4 ballistic missiles, some targeting oil facilities and desalination plants; Bahrain reported injuries and infrastructure damage from falling debris 2FOX Trump’s Iran ceasefire rocked within hours amid reported missile, drone attacks. Operations at Abu Dhabi's Habshan gas complex were temporarily suspended after a debris-related fire 11AJE UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain report attacks despite Iran-US ceasefire. These are not stray shots. They hit critical infrastructure in US-allied states, hours into a truce.

• The Strait of Hormuz is not open in any meaningful sense. Three bulk carriers crossed in 24 hours against a pre-war average of 138 3BBC Iran warning adds to shipping uncertainty. The Norwegian Shipowners' Association, representing 130 companies and 1,500 vessels, said conditions "remain unresolved and unpredictable" 9CRD Shipowners hesitate to pass through Hormuz despite announced ceasefire. Maersk says the ceasefire "does not yet provide full maritime certainty" 9CRD Shipowners hesitate to pass through Hormuz despite announced ceasefire. Iran's navy has reportedly warned ships they will be "targeted and destroyed" without prior permission 3BBC Iran warning adds to shipping uncertainty, and ships that have crossed took a northern route hugging Iran's coastline rather than the normal channel 3BBC Iran warning adds to shipping uncertainty. Around 800 ships remain stranded in the Gulf 9CRD Shipowners hesitate to pass through Hormuz despite announced ceasefire.

• Iran and China are using the Hormuz toll system to chip away at dollar dominance. Under Iran's de facto toll booth regime, transit fees are being charged in Chinese yuan 14AJE In Strait of Hormuz, Iran and China take aim at US dollar hegemony. China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed the yuan payment arrangement via social media last week 14AJE In Strait of Hormuz, Iran and China take aim at US dollar hegemony. This isn't just a war tactic; it's a structural experiment in post-dollar oil trade that Beijing and Tehran both have strong incentives to preserve regardless of how the ceasefire resolves 14AJE In Strait of Hormuz, Iran and China take aim at US dollar hegemony.

• A gunman attack near the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul on Tuesday left one attacker dead and two wounded, with two police officers injured 20APW Gunmen attack building housing Israeli Consulate in Istanbul. Turkey said the attackers drove in from Izmit and one was linked to a group "exploiting religion" without naming the organisation 20APW Gunmen attack building housing Israeli Consulate in Istanbul. No Israeli diplomats were present, as Israel withdrew them earlier due to security concerns 20APW Gunmen attack building housing Israeli Consulate in Istanbul. Single-source (AP), but worth watching as a signal of how the conflict is generating peripheral violence in NATO member states.

Oil dropped to $92 on the ceasefire announcement 8AJE Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet, a significant fall from the above-$110 levels that held for most of the war. But that move is pricing in a clean Hormuz reopening that hasn't happened. With 800 ships stranded, well production shut in across Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, and the shipping industry explicitly refusing to resume normal operations until security is guaranteed 9CRD Shipowners hesitate to pass through Hormuz despite announced ceasefire, the physical oil market is not fixed. Economists warn grocery and fuel price impacts will persist through 2026 and into 2027 regardless of what happens diplomatically 8AJE Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet. The gap between the financial market price and the real-world supply reality is a risk. If Friday's Islamabad talks collapse, that $92 reverses hard.

Over 100 countries have raised pump prices during the six weeks of Hormuz disruption 8AJE Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet. Several Asian governments have already declared national energy emergencies with work-from-home mandates, fuel rationing, shorter working weeks, and curfews 8AJE Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet. The energy crisis will not resolve quickly even if Hormuz fully reopens: tankers are scattered thousands of miles from the Gulf, shut-in wells take weeks to restart, and onshore storage is full with no ships to move cargo 8AJE Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet. Economists and agricultural analysts are now warning that grocery price inflation from this disruption will run through 2026 and into 2027, driven by fertiliser and food supply chain knock-ons 8AJE Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet. The ceasefire headlines feel like relief. The pump and supermarket experience will not.