IRAN NAMES ITS PRICE FOR RETURNING TO THE TABLE

Tehran shifted from vague grievance to specific demands Tuesday, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei publicly listing MOU clauses 1, 5, 10, and 11 as preconditions for resuming final-deal negotiations 1TTM Iran says 'no final deal' until US does its part. Those cover a full hostilities halt including Lebanon, Hormuz transit under Iranian arrangements, lifting the naval blockade, and restoring frozen assets. Iran knows Washington cannot deliver all four quickly, which is the point: this is leverage architecture, not a walkout. Acting Defence Minister Ibn Reza told his Qatari counterpart that "our fingers remain on the trigger" and that the US has violated its commitments "on several occasions even during this short period" 2TTM Defense chief vows ‘decisive’ response to any ceasefire breach by US9TSN Iran’s Finger on Trigger in Case of Truce Violation: Caretaker Defense Minister. Iran's foreign minister has also said restoring the strait to pre-war capacity will take at least a month 10AJE What is Iran looking for in any upcoming talks with the US?, which alone consumes half the negotiating window before any substantive final-deal conversation starts.

Witkoff and Kushner met Qatar's prime minister and mediators Tuesday, but no US-Iranian interaction took place 3BBM US envoys in Doha to meet mediators but not Iranians, Qatar says6AAM US officials Witkoff, Kushner in Doha to meet mediators for Iran talks, Qatar says. A White House official told CNN that technical delegations from both sides would meet separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators Wednesday. Iran's deputy foreign minister denied this was scheduled 6AAM US officials Witkoff, Kushner in Doha to meet mediators for Iran talks, Qatar says. Iran's delegation in Doha is there specifically to discuss the $6 billion in frozen assets Qatar confirmed has not yet been transferred, not to talk to Americans 1TTM Iran says 'no final deal' until US does its part6AAM US officials Witkoff, Kushner in Doha to meet mediators for Iran talks, Qatar says. Wednesday resolves the contradiction one way or another, and if any tranche of that money moves, it matters more than any press conference.

Oman formally endorsed Iran's "service fees" framing for Hormuz transit Tuesday, explicitly rejecting the "transit fees" label that would violate international maritime law 4CRD Oman endorses Iranian proposal on Hormuz ‘service charges,’ rejects ‘transit fees’. Foreign Minister Al-Busaidi cited the Strait of Malacca framework as the model, covering maritime safety, environmental protection, and emergency response. Trump said there will be "NO TOLLS." Oman just helped Iran call them something else 7FOX Iran fights to keep grip on Hormuz as US, Gulf allies carve new shipping route. If this framing embeds itself as the operating reality, shippers price it in permanently and it feeds into the cost of everything moving through the strait.

The full text of the security annex to the June 26 Trilateral Framework shows IDF withdrawal is explicitly conditional on Hezbollah's full disarmament and dismantlement, verified by a third party, before a single Israeli soldier moves 12TOI ‘Eventual IDF redeployment from Lebanon’: Full text of Israel-Lebanon deal security annex. Hezbollah has explicitly rejected disarmament. Lebanese parliament speaker Berri called the annex worse than the failed 1983 accord and warned it could "ignite sedition" 8MHR Berri says Lebanon deal aims to damage Iran-US talks. The implementation track is circular by design: Israel has contractually locked in the right to stay until a condition its adversary has already ruled out is met.

An Asia Group report published Tuesday finds China entered the Hormuz crisis with 104 days of crude import cover, installed 315 gigawatts of new solar last year, and has been significantly less exposed to the energy shock than Japan, South Korea, India, or Southeast Asian emerging markets 5GDN China is a clear winner from Trump’s war in Middle East, report concludes. China also dominates the clean energy supply chain that other countries are now accelerating their dependence on in response to the crisis. The countries that absorbed four months of elevated energy costs and freight disruption emerge more reliant on Beijing's technology than they were in February. That outcome does not appear in official US readouts, which is not nothing.