IRAN HITS BAHRAIN, MOU STAGGERS BUT HOLDS

The IRGC fired drones at Bahrain, home of the US Fifth Fleet, on Saturday, calling it retaliation for US strikes on Iranian coastal and missile sites, which were themselves retaliation for Iran hitting a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz 6TOI Iran fires drones at Bahrain, oil tanker hit in Hormuz as clashes test deal. A Panama-flagged tanker, the KIKU, was also struck by an unidentified projectile in the strait the same day 6TOI Iran fires drones at Bahrain, oil tanker hit in Hormuz as clashes test deal. The IRGC went on state television to warn that "if the aggression is repeated, our response will be broader" 11AJE Iran and US trade blame for attacks, threatening fragile ceasefire. Neither side has formally renounced the MOU, Oman is still mediating, and the next round of talks remains on the calendar, which is about the best thing you can say about the situation right now 1FOX Gulf countries strongly condemn Iran's drone attack on Bahrain as rising tensions threaten MOU.

The core problem is that the MOU apparently never resolved who decides what counts as an authorized transit route. The US says Iran attacked a ship on a legitimate passage and called it a "flagrant ceasefire violation" 8AJE US, Iran trade strikes: What to know, will it unravel the MoU?. Iran says Washington expanded a shipping corridor near Omani waters without Iranian consent, breaching Article 2 of the agreement, making its responses lawful enforcement rather than violations 2TTM US bombs MoU. The US Navy's Joint Maritime Information Center then announced Saturday it is widening that same corridor 6TOI Iran fires drones at Bahrain, oil tanker hit in Hormuz as clashes test deal. Iran has not yet responded to that announcement, and when it does, the language will matter enormously.

The Washington framework signed Friday commits Israel and Lebanon to affirm each other's right to exist, establishes a phased handover of territory to the Lebanese Armed Forces, and sets up a sequenced disarmament verification process 14TOI Full text of Israel-Lebanon ‘framework’ deal that includes slight IDF pullback. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem declared it "null and void" within hours, called it a humiliation, and said disarmament cannot be linked to Israeli withdrawal 3TOI Hezbollah says Israel-Lebanon agreement ‘null and void,’ as its allies threaten civil war. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called it "incitement to civil war," and the Houthis chipped in by calling on Lebanese people to "overthrow puppet government by any means" 3TOI Hezbollah says Israel-Lebanon agreement ‘null and void,’ as its allies threaten civil war. The 60-day negotiating clock is running. Almost nothing happening right now is helping it.

A Bloomberg investigation found the February strike that killed 120 girls at a Minab school happened because a 2019 intelligence update reclassifying the target from an IRGC facility to an elementary school was entered into a digital tool never connected to the Pentagon's official strike-planning database 5RTN Probe reveals reason for US bombing of Iranian girls school, Bloomberg. CENTCOM completed its investigation in April and has not released it. Trump said this week "maybe it wasn't our missile," which does not match what Bloomberg's sources describe 5RTN Probe reveals reason for US bombing of Iranian girls school, Bloomberg. The accountability gap here is significant, and the story is not going away.

Oman has told European officials the strait will not return to its pre-war status, with fees for navigation assistance and environmental services on the table, according to Bloomberg sources 13MHR Oman says Hormuz Strait not to return to its pre-war status. Omani officials are reportedly studying the Strait of Malacca model, where fees are voluntary rather than mandatory. This matters because Oman is not simply relaying Tehran's position. It is articulating its own national interest in a post-war Hormuz regime, which is a more complicated diplomatic landscape than Washington appears to have been planning for.