IRAN KILLS THE HORMUZ EVACUATION PLAN

The IMO and Oman jointly proposed two exit corridors for the hundreds of ships still stuck in the Gulf. The IRGC rejected both immediately, calling them "unacceptable and completely dangerous" and warning that any vessel moving outside IRGC-approved routes faces enforcement action 2GDN Iran rejects UN-backed plan to free ships trapped in strait of Hormuz 4AJE IRGC warns against new Hormuz route for ships: What we know. The reveal here is that Oman issued the coordinates without Iranian sign-off, and Tehran publicly humiliated that process the moment it surfaced 2GDN Iran rejects UN-backed plan to free ships trapped in strait of Hormuz. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, spelled out the endgame: "the administration of the Strait of Hormuz will never go back to the way it was before the war" 2GDN Iran rejects UN-backed plan to free ships trapped in strait of Hormuz. The 60-day toll-free MOU window is technically intact, but Iran is already demonstrating it controls the dial.

Round five of US-led negotiations was described by sources on both sides as the worst yet, "tense and negative" throughout 1CRD Netanyahu ‘convinces’ Trump to back Israeli occupation of south Lebanon: Report 10TOI Current round of US-led talks between Israel, Lebanon the least productive yet, sources. The shared grievance: Washington inserted Lebanon into the Iran MOU without asking either party, and both are furious for opposite reasons. Israel sees an Iranian veto over its military conduct; Lebanon sees Iran treated as the authority over Lebanese soil 10TOI Current round of US-led talks between Israel, Lebanon the least productive yet, sources. Neither reading is wrong. Israeli Defence Minister Katz then declared Israeli forces will not leave Lebanon "even if there is an American demand" and that 200,000 displaced Lebanese civilians "will not return" 1CRD Netanyahu ‘convinces’ Trump to back Israeli occupation of south Lebanon: Report. The State Department had publicly claimed Israel was scaling back its presence as a good-faith gesture. Israeli and Lebanese military sources both said no withdrawal orders exist 1CRD Netanyahu ‘convinces’ Trump to back Israeli occupation of south Lebanon: Report. That is a significant gap between what Washington said and what its ally's army confirmed on the record.

Esmail Qaani used Ashura to tell Israeli forces to "leave all of Lebanon" or be "forced to flee in humiliation and defeat," invoking the 2000 withdrawal and Nasrallah's legacy 5CRD ‘Leave Lebanon now or flee in defeat’: IRGC Quds Force chief issues new warning to Israel. The timing on a Shia holy day of resistance was not accidental. The pattern is coordinated: Qaani issues the public threat while Hezbollah simultaneously releases statements documenting Israeli ceasefire violations and emphasizing its own restraint 5CRD ‘Leave Lebanon now or flee in defeat’: IRGC Quds Force chief issues new warning to Israel. Iran is building a public record of Israeli provocations while keeping Hezbollah's hands visibly clean. That is preparation for something, whether escalation or a stronger negotiating hand on Lebanon is the open question.

The breakdown is $67 billion for the Pentagon, including $21 billion for munitions resupply and $17.3 billion for operational costs 9BBC Trump asks Congress for $87bn, mostly for 'urgent' Iran war costs. This lands one day after the Senate passed a war powers resolution rebuking the conflict 50-48, with four Republicans crossing the aisle 14ABC Breaking: US Senate calls for Trump to end Iran war in bipartisan vote. Senator Cassidy's summary of his shouting match with Trump: "This was supposed to last four weeks, it's lasted four months. Our original objectives have not been achieved" 9BBC Trump asks Congress for $87bn, mostly for 'urgent' Iran war costs. That is quietly the Republican establishment consensus right now. The Senate that just voted to end the war is the same Senate that has to fund it, and watch for appropriators attaching progress benchmarks as conditions on disbursement.

Italian Foreign Minister Tajani called Iranian counterpart Araghchi directly to deny that US aircraft used Italian bases to strike Iran 3MHR Italy rejects NATO chief claim on assisting US against Iran. The call was proactive, not reactive: Rome is worried about its exposure after NATO Secretary-General Rutte claimed European allies supported the strikes, which Tehran used to accuse NATO of complicity in an "unlawful war of aggression" 3MHR Italy rejects NATO chief claim on assisting US against Iran 8AJE Iran war day 118: IRGC rejects new Hormuz route; Rubio to meet GCC leaders. Separately, Saudi Arabia is moving to host a Gulf-Iran reconciliation summit (no date set), and Qatar's PM visited Muscat this week for Hormuz governance talks 6CRD Saudi Arabia to host Gulf - Iran 'reconciliation summit'. Gulf states are building their own diplomatic architecture in parallel to the US-Iran bilateral process because they do not fully trust Washington to protect their interests. The IRGC's route rejection will have landed badly in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, both of which depend on strait passage for their own exports.