ISRAEL IS PUSHING FOR ROUND TWO AND THE WHITE HOUSE IS LISTENING

Israeli and CENTCOM officials met this week to formally discuss scenarios for renewed military action against Iran, including strikes on energy infrastructure and a tightened Hormuz blockade 4AAM Israel pushing for return to Iran war, weighing options with US: Report. Israeli Defence Minister Katz said publicly: "We are prepared for the possibility that we may soon be required to act again in Iran" 4AAM Israel pushing for return to Iran war, weighing options with US: Report. That is a cabinet minister on the record, not a background briefing. Then Trump posted "to be continued" on Truth Social about the "military decimation of Iran" 6TOI Trump posts that ‘the military decimation of Iran’ is ‘to be continued’, which is hard to read as anything other than a coordinated signal to both Tehran and Jerusalem. The uncomfortable part: if a restart happens, the US will be reengaging an adversary its own military has been significantly overstating the damage to.

The House voted 212-212 on a war powers resolution, one vote short of passage 6TOI Trump posts that ‘the military decimation of Iran’ is ‘to be continued’. A day earlier the Senate went 49-50, with three Republicans breaking ranks including Lisa Murkowski, who voted against the war for the first time and told the Senate directly that a military presence in the region means "it doesn't appear that hostilities have ended" 14APW Republican resistance to Iran war grows as Murkowski flips. That language matters because it undercuts the White House's legal argument for avoiding the 60-day authorization requirement under the War Powers Resolution. The votes keep losing, but the margins keep tightening, and Murkowski's flip is the kind of thing that tends to give other Republicans cover.

Riyadh is proposing a regional non-aggression framework modelled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, with European backing, that would give Iran security assurances in exchange for broader stability commitments 7CRD Saudi Arabia 'raises possibility' of non-aggression pact with Iran to quell regional tensions: Report. The motivation is self-interested and honest: Gulf states are worried about a wounded, more hawkish Iran on their doorstep once US forces draw down 7CRD Saudi Arabia 'raises possibility' of non-aggression pact with Iran to quell regional tensions: Report. That Saudi Arabia is floating this publicly, even via unnamed diplomats, is a clear signal that the Gulf does not believe the war resolved anything and is not confident Washington will manage the aftermath.

UANI documented 42 ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude in waters off Malaysia since late February 15APW Malaysia's maritime agency rejects claims of allowing Iranian oil transfers. Malaysia acknowledged the transfers but says they happen in jurisdictional gaps its radar does not cover 15APW Malaysia's maritime agency rejects claims of allowing Iranian oil transfers. China buys roughly 90 percent of Iranian oil, much of it moving through exactly this mechanism. This is how Iran is sustaining revenues despite the US blockade, and it is happening openly enough that satellite imagery can count the transfers. The blockade is doing real damage to some buyers. It is not strangling Iran.

Irans Foreign Minister Araghchi used the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi to frame Iran as the side that won the war, by denying its enemies their objectives 11PTV Test us again, you will repeat your failures: Iran FM to adversaries. He said military pressure would never resolve disputes with Tehran and reiterated that Iran views the US blockade, not its own Hormuz controls, as the destabilising act 10PTV May 14: Iranian officials issue defiant messages, vow no surrender to whims of imperial powers. Delivering that message at a BRICS ministerial, days after the Saudi Helsinki proposal leaked, is deliberate: Iran is cultivating the Global South audience while positioning itself as the aggrieved party in any resumed conflict. Make of that what you will, but the optics at that forum were not unfavorable to Tehran.