TRUMP THREATENS THE BIGGEST STRIKE YET. HIS OWN CIA SAYS IT WON'T WORK.

• Iran's 26th wave destroyed major US air defense hardware. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims to have destroyed a Patriot air defense system, an MQ-9 drone hangar, and a large military equipment depot at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. In Jordan, it claims a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense radar, a Patriot system, and a counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) radar were destroyed, along with fuel storage and helicopter maintenance facilities. 2CRD Iran's 'eye for an eye' strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan destroy Patriot system, drone facilities The New York Times visual investigation corroborated damage to at least nine US-linked sites across the region, including Kuwait's Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base, where a radar system was visibly damaged in satellite imagery. 1JPM Iranian strikes damaged US bases, radar systems in region, image investigation reveals - report The US declined to comment on satellite imagery "for operational security reasons." That non-denial is doing a lot of work. 1JPM Iranian strikes damaged US bases, radar systems in region, image investigation reveals - report

• The Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers, enforcing the blockade with weapons for the first time. The Encelia caught fire after being hit southwest of Saudi Arabia's Al Shuqaiq, though all crew were reported safe. The Layla was also targeted. 8CRD Yemen targets oil tankers in Red Sea, enforces maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia At least ten other ships turned back from Red Sea transit after Houthi warnings. 8CRD Yemen targets oil tankers in Red Sea, enforces maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia This is the moment the blockade stopped being a declaration and became a physical reality. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, its workaround for Hormuz disruption, exports through Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. If that route becomes genuinely hostile, Riyadh's entire export contingency collapses.

• Russia may be helping Iran find US targets. Reuters reported this week that Iranian drone strikes on CIA facilities, including the US embassy compound in Saudi Arabia, have prompted a US intelligence investigation into possible Russian involvement. The precision of some strikes exceeded what analysts expected from Iran's own satellite and targeting capability. 7AJE Has Russia helped Iran target CIA sites in the Gulf? Al Jazeera spoke to Nicole Grajewski at Sciences Po, who called Russian targeting support "realistic," noting Iran lacks the military-grade satellite infrastructure to independently locate and strike dispersed intelligence sites with this accuracy. 7AJE Has Russia helped Iran target CIA sites in the Gulf? This is single-source on the specific CIA investigation, but the analytical case for Russian involvement is solid enough that Rubio raised it directly with Lavrov in Manila on Thursday, in a meeting officially focused on Ukraine. 7AJE Has Russia helped Iran target CIA sites in the Gulf?

• Iran's military is explicitly signalling a new phase. Iranian Army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia said Thursday that "new scenarios have been planned" and that Iran will "enter the field in a new way." 12MHR Iran ready to open new phase of war, employ new strategies He also said the ceasefire period was used to upgrade combat readiness, and pointedly warned that a ground invasion would give Iran "far more opportunities to damage and inflict greater casualties on the enemy." 12MHR Iran ready to open new phase of war, employ new strategies This is not bluster for domestic consumption. It is a public signal that Iran believes it has options it has not yet used.

• The UK's use of RAF Fairford for B-1 bomber strikes against Iran is now a direct flashpoint. The IRGC publicly condemned Britain for allowing US B-1 strikes to launch from the Gloucestershire base, stating that US naval vessels in the Indian Ocean had exhausted their cruise missile supplies and needed the British base as a result. 2CRD Iran's 'eye for an eye' strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan destroy Patriot system, drone facilities Iran's Foreign Ministry said any base used in attacks on Iranian territory is "a legitimate target." 2CRD Iran's 'eye for an eye' strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan destroy Patriot system, drone facilities The UK withdrew diplomatic staff from Iran on Wednesday and Germany announced it was pulling two naval vessels from the Red Sea. 3GDN Donald Trump says decision on ‘massive attack’ against Iran is close New Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government has said nothing publicly about Fairford. That silence is itself a policy.

Brent at $100.80 is the number that matters today, up 7.4% from yesterday and 31% from a month ago. 3GDN Donald Trump says decision on ‘massive attack’ against Iran is close The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 69.21 is the highest in this data set and still moving. This is not a market pricing in a ceasefire or even a stable war. It is pricing a war that just got materially worse overnight, with two maritime chokepoints under active threat simultaneously.

The more telling signal is the VIX jump: from 16.64 yesterday to 19.52 today, a sharp single-day move that suggests equity markets are finally waking up to what commodity markets have been saying for weeks. [[Market snapshot]] Lockheed Martin surged nearly 11% on the day to $570.60. [[Market snapshot]] That is not a normal defence stock move. That is a market pricing a significant escalation decision as probable, not possible. Gold pulled back slightly to $4,049 while oil spiked hard, compressing the gold-to-oil ratio to 43.90, its lowest in this data set. Oil is the signal. Everything else is commentary.

US pump prices are feeling the $100 Brent number with a lag, but RBOB Gasoline wholesale at $3.33 is up nearly 17% from a month ago and the pass-through to consumers is accelerating. [[Market snapshot]] A new Politico/Public First poll shows support for the war among core MAGA voters has dropped 13 points since May, to just over a third, with 57% of MAGA voters citing the war as the primary cause of gas prices above $4 per gallon. 10CRD Trump’s MAGA base turns against war on Iran as costs mount: Poll That is the domestic political pressure, expressed clearly: Trump's own base is connecting the pump price to the war, and the connection is weakening support.

The House passed a war powers resolution rebuking Trump by 214 to 208, with four Republicans crossing the aisle. The Senate version failed 47 to 49. 4CNN House rebukes Trump in vote to restrict his Iran war powers The resolutions lack the force of law, but the trajectory matters: GOP defections are growing, the House left for August recess having just voted against the president's war, and midterm vulnerability is now an explicit part of the conversation inside the Republican Party. One White House-adjacent source told Politico the administration is at "a maximum level of frustration" and that senior figures privately accept "the victory Trump wants cannot be won because the public will not back the escalation required." 10CRD Trump’s MAGA base turns against war on Iran as costs mount: Poll That is a devastating admission if it holds.

Germany pulling naval vessels from the Red Sea is a quiet but significant European signal that NATO partners are reducing exposure rather than increasing it. 3GDN Donald Trump says decision on ‘massive attack’ against Iran is close