TRUMP WANTS A BIGGER STRIKE. THE CIA SAYS IT WONT HELP.

Trump told Axios he is "all set" for a strike "bigger than ever before" and floated Israeli participation before adding the US does not need it. 3GDN Donald Trump says decision on ‘massive attack’ against Iran is close 6YNT Trump says he is close to ordering ‘massive’ attack on Iran; Israel 'would join if I ask them to' On the same day, both the CIA and DIA assessed the bombing campaign is "unlikely to shift the Iranian negotiating position." 9CNN With bombing campaign unlikely to change Iran’s posture according to US intel, Trump faces limited options Trump's stated logic is that Iran needs more pain before it negotiates. 6YNT Trump says he is close to ordering ‘massive’ attack on Iran; Israel 'would join if I ask them to' His intelligence community's position is that Iran will not be bombed into a deal at all. Two officials confirmed no final order has been issued, which matters, though Trump has said things like this before and acted on them. 6YNT Trump says he is close to ordering ‘massive’ attack on Iran; Israel 'would join if I ask them to'

The IRGC claims its 26th wave destroyed a Patriot system, an MQ-9 hangar, and a depot at Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, plus a THAAD radar, another Patriot, and fuel and helicopter facilities in Jordan. 2CRD Iran's 'eye for an eye' strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan destroy Patriot system, drone facilities NYT visual reporting corroborated damage at nine US-linked sites, including visible radar destruction at Kuwait's Ahmad al-Jaber base in satellite imagery. 1JPM Iranian strikes damaged US bases, radar systems in region, image investigation reveals - report The US declined to comment on the imagery "for operational security reasons," which is not a denial. The IRGC also said 26 waves have been building toward "more decisive and heavier" ones to come. 2CRD Iran's 'eye for an eye' strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan destroy Patriot system, drone facilities

The tanker Encelia caught fire after being struck southwest of Al Shuqaiq; the Layla was also targeted. 8CRD Yemen targets oil tankers in Red Sea, enforces maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia At least ten other ships turned back after Houthi warnings. 8CRD Yemen targets oil tankers in Red Sea, enforces maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia This is the moment the blockade went from declared to enforced. Saudi Arabia's fallback export route runs through Yanbu on the Red Sea coast via the East-West pipeline, and if that corridor becomes genuinely hostile, Riyadh's entire workaround for a Hormuz closure collapses. Brent hit $100.80, up 7.4% on the day and 31% over the past month. 3GDN Donald Trump says decision on ‘massive attack’ against Iran is close

Reuters reported a US intelligence investigation into whether Russia is providing targeting support after Iranian strikes hit CIA facilities with precision that exceeded expectations for Iranian-only capability. 7AJE Has Russia helped Iran target CIA sites in the Gulf? An analyst at Sciences Po called the scenario "realistic," noting Iran lacks military-grade satellite infrastructure to independently locate dispersed intelligence sites. 7AJE Has Russia helped Iran target CIA sites in the Gulf? Rubio raised the issue directly with Lavrov in Manila on Thursday, in a meeting officially about Ukraine. Make of that what you will. 7AJE Has Russia helped Iran target CIA sites in the Gulf?

A Politico/Public First poll shows MAGA voter support for the war has dropped 13 points since May, with 57% of MAGA voters blaming the war for gas above $4. 10CRD Trump’s MAGA base turns against war on Iran as costs mount: Poll The House passed a war powers rebuke 214 to 208, with four Republicans crossing over; the Senate version failed 47 to 49. 4CNN House rebukes Trump in vote to restrict his Iran war powers One White House-adjacent source told Politico that senior figures privately accept "the victory Trump wants cannot be won because the public will not back the escalation required." 10CRD Trump’s MAGA base turns against war on Iran as costs mount: Poll That admission, if it holds, is the most important sentence in today's newsletter.