SAUDI ARABIA QUIETLY KILLED PROJECT FREEDOM, AND NOW IT'S BACK

• Zero commercial ships transited the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours ending 0900 GMT Thursday, according to ship tracking data compiled by Anadolu 8AAM No ships pass through Strait of Hormuz in last 24 hours amid rising security risks. More than 1,550 vessels with roughly 22,500 mariners remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf. The IRGC Navy is simultaneously claiming that ships are "complying with new transit regulations" and that safe passage is being ensured under Iranian protocols 8AAM No ships pass through Strait of Hormuz in last 24 hours amid rising security risks, which is a remarkable piece of messaging: Iran is framing its blockade as a maritime management service.

• The US sanctioned Iraq's Deputy Oil Minister, Ali Maarij al-Bahadly, for allegedly helping Iran route sanctioned oil through Iraqi channels and falsify documentation to make Iranian crude appear as Iraqi exports 2AJE US sanctions Iraqi minister accused of aiding Iran oil sales. Three leaders of Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups, Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, were also designated. The timing is pointed: al-Bahadly was reportedly a frontrunner to lead the full Iraqi Oil Ministry in the incoming government 2AJE US sanctions Iraqi minister accused of aiding Iran oil sales. Washington is not just sanctioning Iran's oil network. It is trying to shape who runs Iraq's energy sector.

• A Republican congressman introduced a war powers resolution that would authorise the Iran conflict only through end of July, with explicit prohibitions on ground troops, nation-building and territorial seizure 1FOX Swing-district Republican breaks with Trump, pushes limits on Iran war. Rep. Tom Barrett of Michigan, an Army veteran, is the sponsor. Senator Lisa Murkowski has signalled a parallel measure in the Senate 1FOX Swing-district Republican breaks with Trump, pushes limits on Iran war. The White House position is that the War Powers Resolution (WPR) clock stopped when the April 7 ceasefire began, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the WPR unconstitutional anyway 1FOX Swing-district Republican breaks with Trump, pushes limits on Iran war. This is not yet a crisis for the administration, but it is the first time Republicans on the wrong side of a tough re-election fight have calculated that constraining this war is better politics than supporting it.

• Thirty US lawmakers sent a letter to Rubio demanding clarity on Israel's nuclear capabilities, specifically whether Israel has articulated nuclear red lines or thresholds for use during the Iran conflict, and whether the administration has received any assurances that nuclear weapons will not be used 15AJE In rare push, US lawmakers demand transparency on Israel nuclear capability. The letter is signed entirely by Democrats and will almost certainly go unanswered. But the fact that it was sent, and sent now, signals that someone in Congress has done the math on what an Iranian-Israeli nuclear exchange would mean and decided that public silence is no longer defensible.

• The Gulf's economic damage bill is now estimated at $58 billion, with more than 80 energy facilities hit since February 28, over a third severely damaged 14BBM Gulf economies face long-term hit from Iran conflict. The Iranian strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan complex alone knocked out an estimated 17 percent of global LNG supply, and repairs are projected to take three to five years 14BBM Gulf economies face long-term hit from Iran conflict. The World Bank has cut its Middle East growth forecast from 4 percent to 1.8 percent for 2026. Qatar's chief executive called it a "10 to 20 year setback." These numbers are accumulating quietly in the background while the Strait dominates headlines, but they are the reason every Gulf government needs this war to end regardless of who wins the diplomatic argument.

Oil is sitting around $101 for Brent, roughly flat on the week after Tuesday's sharp drop from $114. The market is in a holding pattern that reflects exactly where the diplomatic situation is: closer to a deal than at any previous point, but not close enough to price in resolution. The more interesting signal is in the Oil Volatility Index (OVX), which has dropped from near 99 in early April to 72 now. That is a real and sustained de-escalation in how markets are pricing oil risk, even though the Strait is still physically closed. Gold at $4,705 keeps climbing regardless, which is not what you would expect if markets genuinely believed peace was imminent. Defence stocks are quietly sliding, down across the board from their April highs, which either means the war trade is unwinding or the market has concluded this conflict is not producing the kind of prolonged high-intensity combat that drives procurement cycles. Probably both.

The $920 million in crude oil shorts placed 70 minutes before the Axios "breakthrough" report on May 6 6CRD Nearly $1bn in oil bets placed minutes before Axios reported on 'US-Iran memo to end war' is worth flagging here plainly: someone knew, or had very strong reason to expect, that a deal-optimism story was about to drop. That position made an estimated $125 million when oil fell 12 percent 6CRD Nearly $1bn in oil bets placed minutes before Axios reported on 'US-Iran memo to end war'. Similar large bets preceded earlier Axios reports on the same topic. This is not proof of anything, but it is a pattern that deserves serious regulatory attention and is getting almost none.

Australia's federal government confirmed a $10 billion fuel security package to be announced in next week's budget, including a government-owned emergency reserve of one billion litres of diesel and aviation fuel, and mandatory stockholding increases from around 20-32 days to approximately 37-50 days depending on fuel type 19ABC More than $10 billion to boost fuel supplies and emergency stockpiles. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is still publicly urging Australians to conserve fuel. The package involves major fuel companies: Ampol, BP Australia and Viva Energy have already used government-backed financing to secure 450 million litres of extra diesel and 100 million litres of additional jet fuel 19ABC More than $10 billion to boost fuel supplies and emergency stockpiles. This is one of the most concrete government responses to the Hormuz closure seen anywhere in the Western world, and it signals Canberra's assessment that the Strait may not reopen quickly enough to bet on.