IRAN SAYS STRIKES ARE COMING, SETS ITS PRICE FOR PEACE

• A leaked 44-page Russian government cooperation plan, obtained by Fox News, shows Moscow was building a comprehensive support architecture around Iran spanning nuclear cooperation, alternative financial channels, aviation manufacturing, and new energy routes toward the Persian Gulf 5FOX EXCLUSIVE: Russian document reveals sweeping Iran plan spanning nuclear, finance and aviation. The document predates the war and was approved September 2024. A European intelligence source who reviewed it told Fox News it is "strategic, sensitive and highly politicised," focusing specifically on sanctions evasion 5FOX EXCLUSIVE: Russian document reveals sweeping Iran plan spanning nuclear, finance and aviation. The document does not establish which projects survived the war's outbreak, but an independent analyst noted that "a number of initiatives described in the roadmap later advanced or materialised" 5FOX EXCLUSIVE: Russian document reveals sweeping Iran plan spanning nuclear, finance and aviation. Read alongside prior reporting on Russia feeding Iran satellite targeting intelligence, this paints a picture of a relationship far more structured than opportunistic.

• Iran is deliberately blocking Houthi ceasefire talks with Saudi Arabia, according to a Gulf diplomatic source 11IHY Iran blocking Houthis from reaching ceasefire with Saudi Arabia. Saudi approaches through China and Oman seeking to reopen the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have gone unanswered because Iran is pressuring Houthi leadership to hold the line. The stated reason: Iran wants oil prices to remain elevated through November to damage Trump's congressional polling 11IHY Iran blocking Houthis from reaching ceasefire with Saudi Arabia. This is a single-source claim from Israel Hayom and should be treated with appropriate caution. But it fits the broader pattern: Iran's strategic interest in keeping both maritime chokepoints closed is not subtle.

• The Houthis struck King Khalid International Airport's vicinity in Riyadh on Saturday, plus the Aramco facility at Yanbu 10JPO Houthis claim to have struck Saudi Aramco facility, Riyadh with missiles, drones13BBC Houthis claim attack on Saudi capital after smoke seen rising near Riyadh airport. Saudi air defenses claimed to destroy incoming missiles, but Reuters cameras captured a large column of black smoke from burning fuel tanks near the airport terminal. This is Riyadh's first confirmed impact in the current escalation cycle. An AFP journalist on the ground confirmed firefighters extinguishing a burnt Aramco fuel tank at Yanbu 13BBC Houthis claim attack on Saudi capital after smoke seen rising near Riyadh airport. Saudi authorities have still issued no official damage statement.

• The Bloomberg investigation into the February 28 Minab school strike found that US overreliance on AI targeting tools, combined with the near-total dismantling of civilian harm mitigation (CHM) units, produced the conditions for the strike 8RTN US overreliance on AI contributed to deadly Iran school strike, Bloomberg. The Palantir Maven Smart System compressed target list assembly to minutes; a CHM team at US Central Command (CENTCOM) had been cut from ten people to one under orders from War Secretary Pete Hegseth, and no CHM official reviewed the Minab site before the missiles hit 8RTN US overreliance on AI contributed to deadly Iran school strike, Bloomberg. The UN fact-finding mission this week found "reasonable grounds" to believe the strike constituted a war crime 8RTN US overreliance on AI contributed to deadly Iran school strike, Bloomberg. Palantir has since upgraded Maven to flag inconsistencies human review might miss, which is an acknowledgement that its previous version did not 8RTN US overreliance on AI contributed to deadly Iran school strike, Bloomberg.

• The war has now cost the US $43.6 billion in confirmed military spending, with nearly two-thirds of that going toward replenishing depleted munitions stockpiles 9RTN Iran sends peace terms to US. Bloomberg reporting cited by multiple sources indicates the ammunition shortage could delay arms deliveries to US allies by several years. Trump and Hegseth deny any shortage. The gap between what officials are saying and what the procurement data shows is the story here, and it sits directly behind the question of what a resumed air campaign against Iran would actually draw from.

Brent crossed $100 in recent weeks and held there, driven by the compounding closure of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb simultaneously 3AJE What are Iran’s latest conditions to end its war with the US?. The market snapshot from Thursday shows Brent at $103.90 and WTI at $100.30, with the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 50.39. That OVX level is elevated but actually lower than earlier in the week, which is a mild surprise given the Riyadh airport strike and Iran's weekend escalation warnings.

The more interesting read is in heating oil, up sharply to $5.06 from $4.35 a month ago. That is the instrument most directly connected to what households pay this winter, and it is moving in the wrong direction as autumn begins in the northern hemisphere.

Defence stocks are flat to slightly down across the board, still well off their August peaks. The market is not treating resumed US strikes as a likely near-term outcome, which puts it at odds with Iran's weekend statement. If Tuesday's Gulf summit produces any indication that Trump has made his "big decision," watch for a sharp reversal in both oil and defence names.

Gold at $4,425 is steady. The Gold/Oil ratio at 44.12 remains elevated from August's 53-plus but has stabilised. Bond markets are the tell to watch: the US 10-year yield at 4.998 percent is sitting just below the 5 percent level that spooked markets last week.

With Brent above $100 and heating oil at its highest level of the war, the autumn energy bill for Western households is baked in. The six EU economies pushing for a coordinated windfall profits tax are now doing so in a market environment that gives their argument real political weight. Any further Houthi escalation against Saudi oil infrastructure, or any confirmed resumption of US strikes on Iran, will push European governments toward emergency energy measures faster than their current timelines suggest.

In the US, the $43.6 billion war bill and the munitions shortage are landing in a Congress that already voted three times to end the conflict. The Bloomberg reporting on multi-year delays to allied arms deliveries is the kind of detail that gives hawkish senators a domestic-industry argument to deploy, regardless of their position on the war itself.