TRUMP SAYS HE HAS A "BIG DECISION COMING UP" ON IRAN

• Russia and China vetoed a US-backed UN Security Council resolution to extend Iran sanctions monitoring. The draft received 11 votes in favour but failed after Moscow and Beijing voted against, with Pakistan and Somalia abstaining 6MHR Russia, China veto US resolution about Iran sanctions. China's UN envoy called US attacks on Iran "the root of the current crisis" and argued sanctions would escalate rather than resolve the situation 6MHR Russia, China veto US resolution about Iran sanctions. Russia's envoy went further, calling the 1737 Committee itself "illegitimate" on the grounds that Resolution 2231 expired in October 2025 and the snapback mechanism was never properly activated 6MHR Russia, China veto US resolution about Iran sanctions. The practical effect is that the UN's Iran sanctions enforcement architecture has now formally collapsed, which removes one more multilateral tool from Washington's toolkit at the moment Trump is weighing whether to escalate militarily.

• The Bab al-Mandeb Strait has effectively closed, with shipping traffic down 88 percent. Only four vessels transited in the past 24 hours against a daily average of 33, and oil tanker passages fell 91 percent, with a single ship recorded 13AAM Bab al-Mandeb Strait’s shipping traffic comes to halt amid conflict in Yemen. The Houthis now hold the Mayun Island at the strait's entrance, the Hanish archipelago, and the coastal town of Dhubab, which together give them physical leverage over the western channel 13AAM Bab al-Mandeb Strait’s shipping traffic comes to halt amid conflict in Yemen. The compounding logic here is brutal: Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline bypass route goes to Red Sea ports, and those ports now feed tankers into a strait the Houthis control. The escape valve Riyadh built around Hormuz is itself being sealed.

• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy struck a Togo-flagged oil tanker for "illegal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker Trend was hit and stopped after a fire broke out on board 8TSN Togo-Flagged Oil Tanker Hit for Illegal Hormuz Passage: IRGC Navy. Rear Admiral Ozmaei stated the IRGC "does not allow any aggressor to pass through" and warned that further illegal transits "will have no outcome other than the destruction of the offending vessel" 8TSN Togo-Flagged Oil Tanker Hit for Illegal Hormuz Passage: IRGC Navy. Separately, US officials acknowledged losing at least two MQ-1 drone variants in recent days, adding to a cumulative drone loss of at least 24 MQ-9 Reapers and one MQ-4C Triton, totalling approximately $870 million in unmanned aircraft losses 5TSN Iran Downs at Least Two American MQ-1 Drones in Recent Days, US Officials Say. US Central Command declined to comment.

• Satellite imagery shows Iran is rebuilding the Taleghan 2 nuclear test facility at Parchin behind a tarp. The site, struck by Israel in October 2024 and again in March 2026, has been under active reconstruction since June, with dump trucks, bulldozers, concrete mixers, and cranes visible on site 2JPM Iran reconstructing nuclear test-linked Taleghan 2 site after IDF strikes, satellite imagery shows. Iran has also added a concrete apron to one side of the hardened buried facility for additional blast protection 2JPM Iran reconstructing nuclear test-linked Taleghan 2 site after IDF strikes, satellite imagery shows. The Institute for Science and International Security, which analysed imagery from Vantor Technologies, put it plainly: "Significant questions remain as to Iran's plans for the facility; not least is why Iran keeps rebuilding it" 2JPM Iran reconstructing nuclear test-linked Taleghan 2 site after IDF strikes, satellite imagery shows. The answer to that question has obvious and alarming implications for any nuclear settlement.

• Italy's economy minister confirmed energy price pain from the war is "worsening everywhere" across Europe. Giancarlo Giorgetti extended Italy's diesel duty cut after a cabinet meeting Wednesday and said he expects further EU countries to back the joint letter sent to Brussels by Italy, Germany, Austria, Poland, Portugal, and Spain on August 22, calling for a coordinated approach to war-driven energy costs, including a windfall profits tax 4TTM Energy price increases will worsen because of war against Iran: Italian energy minister. The Ecofin meeting is the near-term venue to watch. Six EU economies aligned and asking for a windfall tax is no longer a fringe position.

The headline number is Brent at $99.18, down more than $5 from yesterday's $104.60, with WTI falling similarly to $96.07. That is a significant single-day drop, and the instinct is to read it as good news. It is not straightforwardly that.

The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) fell to 50.55 from 54.37, but it is still well above August levels, meaning the market is pricing ongoing risk even as the spot price retreats. The Gold/Oil ratio jumped sharply to 45.98 from 43.07 yesterday, which tells you gold held while oil dropped: that is not confidence, it is defensive repositioning.

The more interesting signal is in tanker stocks. Frontline fell from $54.84 to $50.82 on the day, tracking the oil slide. But it is still up substantially from mid-August, which means the shipping market has not given up its structural risk premium. The 88 percent Bab al-Mandeb collapse and the tanker strike in Hormuz are not in today's oil price. If they were, Brent would not be below $100.

The US 10-year Treasury yield hit exactly 5.00 percent, a clean psychological level that bond traders will be watching. Defence stocks continue their quiet drift lower across the board.

Six EU economy ministers are now formally aligned on a windfall energy profits tax, with Italy's Giorgetti saying the coalition is growing ahead of the Ecofin meeting 4TTM Energy price increases will worsen because of war against Iran: Italian energy minister. For European households already absorbing elevated fuel and heating costs, this is the first coordinated fiscal response to the war's energy impact that has real momentum behind it. Whether it passes is another question, but the political direction is clear.

The Fox News poll finding that 71 percent of Americans think Trump lacks an exit strategy 9FOX Fox News Poll: 71% think Trump administration lacks plan to end Iran war matters for Western allies because it signals a domestic constraint on US escalation that Gulf and European governments are watching closely. An administration that cannot sell its war to its own base has less room to absorb the costs of a broader offensive, which in turn shapes what European governments can expect from Washington over the next 90 days.