TRUMPS AMBASSADOR SAYS STRIKES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, TRUMP SAYS HE IS UNAWARE

Tom Barrack, Trump's special envoy and ambassador to Turkey, told an interviewer the US could "absolutely" strike Iran as soon as this weekend 13AAM US envoy suggests Iran strikes possible this weekend, Trump says he's unaware. Asked about it, Trump said "that was my ambassador?" and claimed total ignorance 13AAM US envoy suggests Iran strikes possible this weekend, Trump says he's unaware. There are three readings: Barrack freelanced, it was a trial balloon with built-in deniability, or there is genuine confusion inside the administration about who can signal military intent. The third option is the one Tehran is most worried about right now, and with good reason. Separately, the New York Times reported that US and Israeli planners developed a short intensive post-midterm strike campaign targeting Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites, and that Trump nearly ordered it earlier this month before pulling back 11JPO Trump says US may renew strikes against Iran, 'do another little Epic Fury'. Barrack's "this weekend" either means the timeline shifted, or someone is very far off-script.

A combined 4.5 million barrels of crude are now burning in the southern Strait of Hormuz after two supertankers struck mines Friday 6TSN Two Supertankers Explode After Hitting Mines in Strait of Hormuz: IRGC 12AAM Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say 2 supertankers hit naval mines in Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC said the ships tried to transit an "unauthorized route," engine rooms were disabled, and crews abandoned both vessels 6TSN Two Supertankers Explode After Hitting Mines in Strait of Hormuz: IRGC. Mines are the defining feature of this phase of the maritime campaign: they require no IRGC presence, cannot be recalled, and hit indiscriminately. The pace is not slowing.

National Intelligence Director Jay Clayton sent an unclassified memo to Secretary Rubio stating that Iranian lethal plots against US citizens have reached "advanced stages" in the Middle East and beyond 5BBM Iran trying harder to target US personnel in Middle East, intelligence chief warns 3CNN US discreetly moves diplomats and families from multiple Middle Eastern countries as intel warns of Iranian plots to attack. The decision to go unclassified was deliberate, intended to let Rubio share the threat picture with staff fast, which tells you how serious the assessment is. Beyond Saudi Arabia, embassies in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Lebanon are all being quietly drawn down 3CNN US discreetly moves diplomats and families from multiple Middle Eastern countries as intel warns of Iranian plots to attack. Diplomats describe the process as chaotic, with less financial support than the February evacuation for families who only recently moved back 3CNN US discreetly moves diplomats and families from multiple Middle Eastern countries as intel warns of Iranian plots to attack.

Iran's offshore crude stockpile, once estimated at 135 million barrels, had fallen below 1 million barrels by early October and is now virtually gone 16SKY Iran’s secret oil supply bound for China has dried up thanks to US naval blockade, analysts say. CENTCOM puts the total revenue loss from the naval blockade at at least $25 billion 16SKY Iran’s secret oil supply bound for China has dried up thanks to US naval blockade, analysts say. Oil exports fund 30 to 40 percent of Tehran's budget and roughly 60 percent of government salaries, including the military 16SKY Iran’s secret oil supply bound for China has dried up thanks to US naval blockade, analysts say. Iran ran this war partly on stored oil sold to China. That buffer is gone, which means the pressure on Tehran to either negotiate or escalate sharply has just increased materially, which is not nothing heading into the next two weeks.

Turkey, France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan gathered in Istanbul and issued a joint warning that renewed US or Israeli strikes on Iran would spread the conflict and worsen oil prices 15GDN US and Israel are warned against launching fresh strikes on Iran. German Foreign Minister Wadephul said the effects of the shipping disruption are already visible "at the petrol pump or the supermarket" 15GDN US and Israel are warned against launching fresh strikes on Iran. This is the most significant multilateral diplomatic pushback since the June ceasefire collapsed. It will not stop Washington if Trump decides to act, but eight foreign ministers assembling outside any NATO or UN framework specifically to constrain American options reflects how far European confidence in Washington's management of this war has eroded. Make of that what you will.