LAVROV IN TEHRAN: SOMETHING SUBSTANTIVE IS ON THE TABLE

Lavrov met Araghchi and Pezeshkian today, the first such visit since Operation Epic Fury began in February. The Russian Foreign Ministry's stated agenda, resolving the crisis triggered by "unlawful US and Israeli aggression," is unusually pointed framing for a country nominally interested in mediation. 11PTV Russia's Lavrov in Tehran for key talks with Iranian officials Russia has real incentives pointing in multiple directions here: it benefits from elevated oil prices, wants US military capacity stretched across two theatres, but also has leverage with Tehran that no Western actor has and a direct line to Trump. The Russian Foreign Ministry's own phrase was "confidential and thorough" talks, which is not the language of a photo op. 11PTV Russia's Lavrov in Tehran for key talks with Iranian officials Watch what Lavrov says at his press conference and, more usefully, what he doesn't. If he mentions anything "phased" or "sequenced" around Hormuz, someone has been talking specifics.

A third vessel struck an Iranian mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, this one attempting an unauthorised exit route with its transponder off. 6MHR Yet another oil tanker explodes after hitting mine in Hormuz 8AAM Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says oil tanker struck mine and caught fire in Strait of Hormuz Saturday's incident involved a supertanker carrying over two million barrels. 8AAM Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says oil tanker struck mine and caught fire in Strait of Hormuz The IMO secretary-general told Fox News that 6,000 seafarers remain stranded and urged ships not to attempt transit until there are guarantees. 7FOX Strait of Hormuz crisis traps 6,000 sailors as attacks on ships mount, UN maritime chief says Separately, Iran accused the US Navy of using the international maritime distress frequency, Channel 16, to issue threats in Persian to Iranian crews; CENTCOM denied it and called its blockade enforcement professional. 7FOX Strait of Hormuz crisis traps 6,000 sailors as attacks on ships mount, UN maritime chief says The two accounts are flatly contradictory and neither offered independent verification. Frontline tanker stock is down 14 percent in seven days, which tells you how the shipping market is reading all of this.

Trump called Netanyahu "a Great Warrior Prime Minister" and warned that without him, the US would have to confront Iran alone. 2CRD Netanyahu welcomes Trump's endorsement for re-election, pledges readiness to reignite war on Iran 13JPO Trump endorses Netanyahu days before Israeli election, warns US could face Iran alone if PM loses This came roughly 72 hours after Trump told Newsmax he wasn't endorsing anyone, and his own advisers reportedly opposed the move. 13JPO Trump endorses Netanyahu days before Israeli election, warns US could face Iran alone if PM loses Araghchi's response on X was blunt: "Netanyahu is driving America into another war to stay out of jail. Last time you wanted to finish the job, Iran emerged even stronger. Want to try your luck again?" 12AAM Iran's foreign minister accuses Netanyahu of pushing US toward another war to avoid prison The Israeli shekel ticked up slightly, so markets aren't reading this as imminent escalation, but the VIX has climbed from 15.23 to 17.76 over the past week, which is not nothing.

Egypt's parliament was expected to vote Sunday on deploying troops in support of Saudi Arabia but is still deliberating. 9JPO Egypt's Sisi seeks parliamentary approval to deploy Egyptian military in support of Saudi Arabia Sisi has already said Egypt will provide "all necessary support" to defend Saudi territory and the Islamic holy sites, after Houthi strikes hit Riyadh's airport and Aramco facilities. 9JPO Egypt's Sisi seeks parliamentary approval to deploy Egyptian military in support of Saudi Arabia Whether this becomes a real ground force or a symbolic commitment is the whole question. Separately, Qatar's deputy prime minister told a Doha security forum that global energy shockwaves "have yet to peak" and warned against any Hormuz toll scheme, which is pointed given that the IRGC keeps floating exactly that idea. 4AJE Qatar warns global energy shockwaves from Iran war have yet to peak Qatar also confirmed it has never stopped communicating with Tehran, which is its way of telling Washington it remains useful as an intermediary.

TIME published a heavily documented investigation claiming Netanyahu's government actively enabled roughly $2 billion in Qatari funds to reach Hamas, including after Israeli intelligence explicitly warned the money was going to Hamas's military wing. 14YNT TIME investigation reveals how Israel helped funnel $2 billion in Qatari funds to Hamas-run Gaza The Prime Minister's Office declined to comment. 14YNT TIME investigation reveals how Israel helped funnel $2 billion in Qatari funds to Hamas-run Gaza Nine days before the election, with Trump having just staked his credibility on Netanyahu's reelection, the timing is about as damaging as it gets for Netanyahu's core argument that he is the only leader who takes Hamas seriously. Whether Israeli opposition parties formalize a parliamentary inquiry in the next eight days, and whether any coalition partners distance themselves, is worth watching closely.