TRUMP ADMITS THE DECAPITATION STRATEGY BACKFIRED

At a rally in Youngstown, Trump said "we might have gone too far with the leaders because we don't know who the hell we're dealing with anymore." 5JPO Trump says US struggling to negotiate with Iran as too many regime leaders killed in strikes That is a remarkable thing to say out loud: the campaign designed to degrade Iran's war capacity also eliminated the people capable of ending it. JD Vance separately confirmed Washington remains "uncertain about how decisions are being made within Iran's leadership." 5JPO Trump says US struggling to negotiate with Iran as too many regime leaders killed in strikes The diplomatic channel is technically alive (Iran says it is "reviewing Washington's latest points" 15RTN Iran will destroy US data centers and AI facilities if attacked again, security chief), but Iran's National Security Council calls the US response "insufficient" and its demands, lift the blockade, end hostilities, release assets, are unchanged. You cannot split the difference with an interlocutor you cannot identify.

A third consecutive night of ballistic missile attacks on Riyadh, plus strikes toward Khamis Mushait, has now pushed 17 airlines from 13 countries to suspend Saudi routes. 4CRD At least 17 airlines from 13 countries cancel flights to Saudi Arabia 9AJE Houthi missile attack targets Saudi capital Riyadh for third day in a row Riyadh lost 98 percent of scheduled traffic on Sunday alone, with nearly 1,500 cancellations logged across Saudi airports over two days. 4CRD At least 17 airlines from 13 countries cancel flights to Saudi Arabia The Yemeni Armed Forces have made clear that all Saudi airports except those serving Mecca and Medina remain legitimate targets. Saudi Arabia is now facilitating bus crossings from neighbouring Gulf states to repatriate its own citizens stranded abroad, which is not the image a major energy exporter wants projecting.

Three supertankers struck IRGC mines in the Strait of Hormuz in under 48 hours. 11MHR Moment when 3rd super tanker strikes sea mine in Hormuz 17SKY Iran sets supertanker ablaze after US takes out ship breaking blockade Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei publicly threatened to destroy US data centres, AI facilities, and internet cables in the UAE if hostilities resume, valuing those assets at over $2 trillion. 15RTN Iran will destroy US data centers and AI facilities if attacked again, security chief 6YNT Report: Iran threatens ground incursions into neighboring countries if US attacks Iranian officials have privately warned Arab intermediaries of plans to sink US warships and kill crews. 6YNT Report: Iran threatens ground incursions into neighboring countries if US attacks Whether Iran can execute all of this simultaneously is a reasonable question. Whether these threats are already reshaping how Gulf states and Washington calculate risk is not.

PM Andy Burnham told parliament the IRGC "almost certainly" directed a planned drone attack against RAF Fairford, and 29 countries issued a joint condemnation. 8SKY UK PM Andy Burnham says Iran's IRGC likely behind RAF Fairford incident 10AJE UK blames Iran for airbase plot, sanctions two Iranian nationals 12BBC Britain won't tolerate threats on our soil, Miliband says as he summons Iran ambassador The practical consequence is the one that matters most: the B-1 and B-52 bombers that had been flying strike missions against Iran from Fairford are now back on US soil, removing a critical forward basing option. Iran denied involvement and offered to cooperate with the investigation, which is a diplomatic move, not a concession. The Pentagon has since moved to reinforce regional bases with additional air defence and munitions. 6YNT Report: Iran threatens ground incursions into neighboring countries if US attacks

The IMF projects the Middle East and Central Asia will contract 0.3 percent in 2026, the only region in the world shrinking this year. 7AJE Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says Kuwait faces a 16.7 percent GDP collapse, Iraq 16 percent, Qatar 15.6 percent. 7AJE Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says US diesel sits at $6.20 a gallon, nearly double pre-war levels, and BBC Verify confirms the Iran conflict has cut more from global diesel exports than Ukraine sanctions ever did. 14BBC Which war is having the biggest impact on diesel prices - Iran or Ukraine? Frontline tanker stock is up 21 percent in a month. Equity markets are still pricing a contained war. Tanker markets are pricing one that is getting structurally worse. Both cannot stay true much longer.