TRUMP REJECTED THE DEAL, BUT HE ALSO TOLD THE UN THE OPPOSITE AND THE QATARI CHANNEL IS STILL RUNNING

The Journal's reporting is clear: Trump told aides a deal is off and bombing resumes after the midterms 7YNT Trump rejects Iran’s seven-day ceasefire plan, sees renewed bombing after midterms. But the same piece notes his position has shifted repeatedly and could shift again 7YNT Trump rejects Iran’s seven-day ceasefire plan, sees renewed bombing after midterms. Talks through Qatar are ongoing and US officials are calling them "positive and constructive" 1GDN Trump reportedly rejects Iran’s seven-day peace deal to reopen strait of Hormuz. Iran's foreign minister laid out the plan publicly in New York rather than through back channels, which is a negotiating move, and Pezeshkian flew home saying Tehran "has not walked away" 1GDN Trump reportedly rejects Iran’s seven-day peace deal to reopen strait of Hormuz. What you have is not a clean rejection. You have a president managing three different audiences simultaneously, with no resolution before the midterms looking like the most likely outcome.

Saudi Arabia is refusing to be a co-signatory to Iran's Hormuz reopening plan, which runs primarily through Iranian waters under a bilateral Iran-Oman framework 1GDN Trump reportedly rejects Iran’s seven-day peace deal to reopen strait of Hormuz. Bahrain went further at UNGA, flatly rejecting any permit or fee system for Hormuz passage and warning it would set a precedent for every strategic waterway on earth 8AAM Bahrain rejects permit, fee regime for Strait of Hormuz passage. These are not background concerns. They are the US's core regional partners pushing directly against where the Qatari channel is heading. Add the IRGC's public declaration that Iran "will not stop punishing the US" until all seven conditions are met 5TSN Punishing US Won’t Stop Until Iran’s Conditions Are Met: IRGC, and the political conditions for Trump to announce a deal this week were basically zero regardless of what he told his aides.

The measure passed the House with bipartisan support, got 49 Senate votes, and died because Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Bill Cassidy both voted no 12CRD US Senate votes to block resolution demanding Trump end war on Iran. Lawmakers have now tried 14 times to use war powers legislation to rein in Trump; only one resolution has cleared both chambers and it was not legally binding 12CRD US Senate votes to block resolution demanding Trump end war on Iran. The war has cost US taxpayers nearly $40 billion in four months and added roughly $900 per household in fuel costs 12CRD US Senate votes to block resolution demanding Trump end war on Iran. Senator Kaine promised to keep bringing resolutions weekly and noted Republican candidates are "starting to change their position" 12CRD US Senate votes to block resolution demanding Trump end war on Iran. With 34 percent approval on Trump's war handling in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the political math going into November is not comfortable 12CRD US Senate votes to block resolution demanding Trump end war on Iran.

US intelligence has assessed that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, per classified documents reported by the Washington Post 6YNT US intelligence warns Saudi Arabia has not ruled out nuclear weapons. This arrives alongside a July deal granting Saudi Arabia civilian nuclear development rights under looser safeguards than the US applies to most partners 6YNT US intelligence warns Saudi Arabia has not ruled out nuclear weapons. MBS said in 2018 the kingdom would pursue a weapon if Iran did. That statement plus the nuclear deal plus an intelligence community assessment pointing the same direction is, make of that what you will, a significant data point in a war being fought ostensibly to prevent regional nuclear proliferation.

Iraq has lost approximately $60 billion in oil revenues since the war began, with oil representing more than 90 percent of its federal budget 4AJE Iran war squeezes Iraq’s economy as oil revenues fall and prices rise. Imported goods in Baghdad are up 25-30 percent. Chinese goods are taking up to three months to arrive due to rerouting costs 4AJE Iran war squeezes Iraq’s economy as oil revenues fall and prices rise. Syria has begun trucking gasoline into Iraq via the Baniyas refinery as a Hormuz workaround, with a Kirkuk-Baniyas crude pipeline revival now under active study 11CRD Syria opens overland fuel transit route to Iraq amid Hormuz closure. The volume is small but the signal is real: the region's energy geography is being redrawn, and Baghdad is being pushed to build alternatives to the strait whether it wants to or not.