RUSSIA HAS BEEN GIVING IRAN TARGETING DATA FOR STRIKES ON US BASES

A CNN report citing two US officials concludes Russian spy satellites played a "vital role" in Iran's most accurate strikes on US military infrastructure 10JPO Iran's targeting of US bases may have used Russian spy satellite imagery - report. The satellites provided detailed imagery, all-weather radar, and SAR data precise enough to locate specific high-value assets, which is how Iran destroyed a US E-3 Sentry at Prince Sultan Air Base in March and hit a CIA facility inside the Riyadh embassy complex 10JPO Iran's targeting of US bases may have used Russian spy satellite imagery - report. Saudi analyst Dr. Nawaf Obaid summarized it cleanly: "This is Russian payback with interest" for US support to Ukraine 10JPO Iran's targeting of US bases may have used Russian spy satellite imagery - report. This is currently single-sourced to CNN, so watch for confirmation, but if it holds it means Russia has a direct stake in this war continuing and any ceasefire becomes much harder to close.

The Independent International Fact-Finding Mission concluded the Tomahawk strike on a primary school in Minab, which killed over 150 people including roughly 120 children, was an indiscriminate attack on a civilian object 4GDN Iran school bombing: grounds to believe US was behind atrocity, UN finds. A second strike in Lamerd, which scattered tungsten pellets over a sports complex and residential area killing 22 civilians, reached the same finding 2AAM UN mission finds 'reasonable grounds to believe US committed war crimes' in Iran. The US relied on bad intelligence about a senior Iranian commander at Minab and acted "recklessly," the mission found, and US Central Command's denial that it struck Lamerd at all directly contradicts the UN account 4GDN Iran school bombing: grounds to believe US was behind atrocity, UN finds. The Pentagon has published nothing from its own inquiry. European governments that have been quietly backing Washington now have a formal war crimes finding to navigate in every parliamentary debate about arms transfers and military cooperation.

Wednesday's Strait of Hormuz traffic count hit three vessels, down from 12 the day before and well below the 10-day average of 17 5MHR Only three vessels transit Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. That is close to a functional closure, and it is not yet priced into oil markets, which are consolidating after Brent touched $109 earlier this week. The IRGC separately claimed to have shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper near Qeshm Island on Thursday, though that is Iranian state media only with no US Central Command confirmation 1MHR IRGC destroys US MQ-9 drone near Qeshm Island. The number to watch over the next 48 hours is not the oil price, it is the ship count.

Trump said Wednesday he has spoken with Iranian officials directly and is "hopefully toward the end" of the war 3AJE Trump claims direct talks with Iran: Is diplomacy picking up again?. Iran's top security official said the same day there will be no negotiations until Iran's conditions are met 3AJE Trump claims direct talks with Iran: Is diplomacy picking up again?. Both of those statements cannot be true in any straightforward way. Any Iranian official response that validates, contradicts, or even muddies Trump's claim in the next 24 hours is worth reading carefully, and with the UN General Assembly convening next week, proximity and deniability are both available in New York.

Three Republicans voted for a war powers resolution for the first time Tuesday, joining four who had backed earlier versions 14GDN More Republicans are turning on Iran war as midterms come into view. Iowa's Mariannette Miller-Meeks cited fuel costs; Iowa's Zach Nunn cited two Iowans killed early in the war 14GDN More Republicans are turning on Iran war as midterms come into view. A separate Republican introduced articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the war's lack of congressional authorization 14GDN More Republicans are turning on Iran war as midterms come into view. None of this ends the war, but it tells you exactly how competitive House districts are reading the November midterms. Trump is also planning a Gulf states summit on the UNGA sidelines focused on postwar planning, which is the clearest signal yet that his team believes a timeline for ending this exists 7YNT Trump plans Iran summit at UN: ‘They want to make a deal’.