TRUMP THREATENS OMAN, CONFIRMS IRGC BACKCHANNEL, AND BURIES THE DEAL

Trump told Fox News "if Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them" 3BBC Trump threatens to bomb US ally Oman if it 'gets in the way' over Iran deal, at the exact moment Oman was finalizing a Hormuz routing arrangement Iran had just announced 6TOI As 60-day MOU deadline expires, Iran says it has reached a deal with Oman on Hormuz. Axios reported the Washington-Tehran backchannel runs through KRG President Nechirvan Barzani, who speaks Farsi and has personal IRGC relationships 5JPO Trump confirms IRGC backchannel, threatens to 'bomb the s***' out of Oman if it 'gets in the way'. The IRGC denied it 3BBC Trump threatens to bomb US ally Oman if it 'gets in the way' over Iran deal, which is what you would expect them to say, given that Iranian drones then struck Barzani's private office and the KRG intelligence chief's residence the same day 8AJE Iraqi Kurdish PM Barzani’s office targeted in drone attack. Whether Tehran killed the channel deliberately or the timing is coincidence is the most important unresolved question right now, and the US has said nothing publicly either way.

Iran's foreign ministry said Monday that an understanding with Oman on a Strait transit corridor had been reached, with a joint statement in progress 6TOI As 60-day MOU deadline expires, Iran says it has reached a deal with Oman on Hormuz. Ships would enter near Iranian waters and exit near Oman's, with no fees in the interim 6TOI As 60-day MOU deadline expires, Iran says it has reached a deal with Oman on Hormuz. It is not a full reopening, but it is the first functional Hormuz arrangement since the MoU collapsed, which is not nothing. Trump's threat against Oman landed in the same news cycle, and Muscat had not publicly responded as of 20:00 UTC. If Oman goes quiet, six months of incremental progress on the strait disappears.

Trump posted on Truth Social that preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is "the number one Goal" 6TOI As 60-day MOU deadline expires, Iran says it has reached a deal with Oman on Hormuz, directly contradicting JD Vance's public statement last week that lower gas prices were the priority and nuclear was second. That is not a messaging gap. That is two senior officials describing different wars. Meanwhile, the economic pressure is real: Iranian food prices up 128 percent year on year, oil exports down from 1.8 million barrels per day to under 500,000 2FOX Iran deal clock hits zero as Trump demands ‘white flag’ with new pressure campaign looming. Iran is not raising a white flag. It is bombing the negotiator.

Asian refiners are now pushing back on picking up Saudi crude at Yanbu, the Red Sea port Yemeni Armed Forces have been targeting, with at least two requesting alternative loading at Egypt's Sidi Kerir and one potentially skipping its September allocation entirely 4CRD Asian refiners demand alternative pickup points for Saudi crude amid Yemeni blockade of Red Sea ports. The YAF also claims to have sunk a Saudi military landing ship off Mokha 4CRD Asian refiners demand alternative pickup points for Saudi crude amid Yemeni blockade of Red Sea ports. Hormuz and the Red Sea are now both visibly disrupting physical supply chains, not just futures pricing. Brent was already at $88.52 before today's chaos; the $100 level it briefly touched last week is back in view, and the VIX at 14.25 remains the number that does not belong anywhere near this story.

Trump ordered a "substantial" reduction in joint military exercises with South Korea hours before they were set to begin, citing Seoul's refusal to contribute to operations against Iran 9TOI Hours before start, Trump orders ‘substantial’ reduction of military drills with South Korea. South Korea's military started the drills regardless 9TOI Hours before start, Trump orders ‘substantial’ reduction of military drills with South Korea. The implicit message to every US treaty ally in the Pacific, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, is that Washington will deprioritize alliance commitments if a partner declines to join a war it was never formally asked to join. Those governments are already watching a carrier gap in the Pacific. This does not help.