IRAN GETS A MISSILE MAN IN CHARGE AND TELLS WASHINGTON TO CHOOSE

• Egypt formally approved troop deployments to Saudi Arabia. The National Defense Council confirmed the "defensive mission" after an emergency parliamentary session on Sunday 6AAM Egyptian parliament begins emergency session on possible troop deployment to defend Saudi Arabia7CRD Egypt launches ‘defensive mission’ in support of Saudi Arabia. This follows the reported activation of the Mecca Defense Pact and Pakistani jets reportedly already striking Yemen, which Islamabad has denied 7CRD Egypt launches ‘defensive mission’ in support of Saudi Arabia. An Arab military coalition is forming around Saudi Arabia in real time. This is the most significant conventional military development outside the strait in weeks, and it has received almost no attention compared to the Hormuz headlines.

• Two more supertankers hit Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Both vessels were carrying approximately two million barrels of crude each. The IRGC says both had deactivated their transponders and were using unauthorised routes, in one case "with US support" 10AJE Iran says two tankers catch fire after hitting mines in Strait of Hormuz11RTN Two supertankers hit mines in Strait of Hormuz, IRGC (VIDEO). That last claim is single-source from a party with obvious interest, so treat it accordingly. What is not in dispute: Brent settled at $109.86 on Friday, up 3.7 percent, its highest close since May 11RTN Two supertankers hit mines in Strait of Hormuz, IRGC (VIDEO). The Financial Times and European security source data compiled by The Cradle puts 24 ships struck in the two weeks to October 11 4CRD Iran FM presents offer to reopen Hormuz, says 'choice rests with US' to end war, nearly double the early-war rate. CENTCOM says 97 percent of ships seeking to transit have done so successfully 14FOX 'Vast majority' of Iran's attempted attacks on Strait of Hormuz are unsuccessful, CENTCOM spokesman says, but that figure excludes ships that simply did not attempt the crossing, which is now most of them.

• Iran's foreign minister repeated the seven-day Hormuz plan in Baghdad and added a detail. Speaking to OIC foreign ministers, Araghchi said the strait would reopen on day six of the plan, with negotiations resuming on day seven 5MHR Hormuz Strait to be reopened if US accepts Iran’s conditions. He also noted the June Islamabad memorandum of understanding, under which maritime traffic briefly recovered to 60 percent of pre-war levels before the US resumed bombing and imposed a naval blockade 4CRD Iran FM presents offer to reopen Hormuz, says 'choice rests with US' to end war. Tehran's framing is consistent: it offered a deal, Washington broke it, and the strait closed again. Whether that framing is entirely accurate is debatable. That it is what Iran is saying to every Muslim-majority foreign minister simultaneously, in a major multilateral forum, is a fact Washington has to contend with.

• A mysterious explosion hit a Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) ammunition depot in eastern Baghdad, injuring five. Iraq's government and the PMF itself are calling it an internal malfunction, with no evidence of external targeting 2JPM Mysterious explosion hits Baghdad, injuring soldiers from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Iraq's prime minister has ordered a formal investigation. The PMF is the umbrella group for Iran-backed militias including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Explosions at militia weapons depots in Iraq and Syria have happened before, and the pattern of "accidents" in sensitive militia facilities has attracted enough suspicion in the region that the official "internal malfunction" explanation is being received with considerable skepticism 2JPM Mysterious explosion hits Baghdad, injuring soldiers from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Worth watching whether this becomes part of a pattern.

• Israeli settlers attacked European diplomats in the West Bank, smashing a Belgian consular vehicle and assaulting a French mayor. The delegation, which included the French and Polish consuls and the Belgian consul general, was accompanying olive harvesters near Taybeh when a group of seven masked settlers attacked 12GDN Israeli settlers attack European diplomats in West Bank13BBC European diplomats attacked by Israeli settlers in West Bank. Belgium's foreign minister called for EU sanctions on settlers. Netanyahu's office suggested the incident was a "coordinated campaign to smear Israel" 13BBC European diplomats attacked by Israeli settlers in West Bank. Belgium, France, and Poland are all EU members. The EU is already under internal pressure to act on settler violence. The fact that settlers now feel comfortable physically assaulting serving diplomats in front of cameras is an escalation in its own right, distinct from the Iran war but feeding the same diplomatic currents.

Brent at $109.86 on Friday is the market catching up with the physical reality of the strait: two more supertankers burning, CENTCOM's own attack count rising, and no diplomatic signal credible enough to sell 11RTN Two supertankers hit mines in Strait of Hormuz, IRGC (VIDEO). The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is now at 50.74, up from 48.90 a week ago and well above the 57.99 it hit in mid-September when the blockade first tightened [[market data]]. That trajectory matters: the market is not panicking, but it is steadily pricing in more uncertainty, not less.

Defence stocks are the week's standout. Rheinmetall is up over 16 percent from seven days ago. Lockheed Martin hit $552, Northrop Grumman $520, both continuing their climb [[market data]]. A newly confirmed Iranian defense minister whose explicit mandate is to accelerate missile production is exactly the kind of signal that moves those names. The VIX jumping from 14.84 to 19.99 in a single week is worth noting: that is a market shifting from complacency to alertness, not yet fear, but no longer relaxed.

Brent above $109 with two more supertankers burning means pump prices are not finding a ceiling yet. Egypt's troop deployment to Saudi Arabia adds a new variable: if the Houthi-Saudi front intensifies with Egyptian forces involved, Gulf energy infrastructure faces simultaneous pressure from Yemen and from a strait that is still functionally contested. The CENTCOM 97-percent-success-rate figure 14FOX 'Vast majority' of Iran's attempted attacks on Strait of Hormuz are unsuccessful, CENTCOM spokesman says is the number Western governments want to cite. The Financial Times 24-ships-hit-in-two-weeks figure 4CRD Iran FM presents offer to reopen Hormuz, says 'choice rests with US' to end war is the one their consumers are feeling at the forecourt.