CONGRESS PUTS A NUMBER ON THE DAMAGE

• An IRGC senior advisor warned that "illicit routes" through the Strait of Hormuz, established by blasting through rocky passages, "will soon be blocked" 2CRD IRGC warns 'illicit' Hormuz routes 'will soon be blocked'. This matters because oil exports from the Middle East have actually recovered to roughly pre-war levels despite the formal closure, with the seven-day moving average hitting 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30 7AJE Oman evacuates injured crew from attacked tanker in Strait of Hormuz. If Iran follows through and closes the workarounds, that export recovery evaporates. Watch this closely.

• The Panamanian-flagged tanker "On Peace" was struck 9 nautical miles off the Omani port of Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, injuring 12 of 19 crew, 11 of them Indian nationals. Oman's air force evacuated 10 crew members 7AJE Oman evacuates injured crew from attacked tanker in Strait of Hormuz. No group has claimed the attack. India's foreign ministry noted that at least 10 Indian seafarers have been killed since the war began and called for an immediate cessation of attacks. India's patience on this issue is not unlimited, and New Delhi's tone is hardening.

• VP Vance signalled a significant shift in US nuclear demands, calling for a "meaningful reduction" in Iranian enrichment capacity rather than total abandonment 3AJE US sets new demands for Iran deal: What are they? 8JPO Iran must cut enrichment to end war, US uncertain who makes decisions in Tehran, Vance says. Vance specifically questioned Iran's need for 60 percent enriched uranium. Simultaneously, Vance acknowledged the US is "not totally clear how their country makes decisions" following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei at the war's outset 8JPO Iran must cut enrichment to end war, US uncertain who makes decisions in Tehran, Vance says. Iran's foreign ministry responded that the confusion is on Washington's side, not Tehran's 8JPO Iran must cut enrichment to end war, US uncertain who makes decisions in Tehran, Vance says. The gap between Vance's softer line and Rubio's "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, period" is either a good-cop-bad-cop routine or a genuine internal disagreement. Either way, Iran will notice it.

• Satellite imagery from VANTOR Technologies shows significant renewed activity at the Minzadehei nuclear site northeast of Tehran, which Israel struck in March 9JPO Satellite images show renewed activity at secret Iran nuclear site bombed by IDF 11YNT Satellite images reveal renewed activity at nuclear site Israel struck in Iran. Vehicle traffic has returned, earthworks are ongoing, and cleanup of the strike damage is well advanced. The Institute for Science and International Security assesses this may indicate Iran is attempting to restore a nuclear weapons development capability at the site 11YNT Satellite images reveal renewed activity at nuclear site Israel struck in Iran. This is not confirmed enrichment. But it is the second nuclear site flagged in recent weeks (after Pickaxe Mountain in September), and it sits directly under ongoing diplomatic talks about Iran's nuclear posture.

• Yemen's government forces launched a major offensive to retake the al-Waziiya district in Taiz, part of the "Dawn of Yemen" operation announced Sunday 10AJE Yemeni forces launch offensive to retake Houthi-held al-Waziiya in Taiz. The mountainous district sits east of the Red Sea port of Mocha, which the Houthis seized last month. Control of al-Waziiya is a prerequisite for any attempt to retake Mocha and, by extension, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis deny any ground was lost. Saudi Arabia simultaneously intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting Khamis Mushait, while Houthi strikes hit two Saudi airports near the Yemen border 10AJE Yemeni forces launch offensive to retake Houthi-held al-Waziiya in Taiz.

Brent crossing $101 is the number, but the more interesting signal is the Hormuz situation underneath it 7AJE Oman evacuates injured crew from attacked tanker in Strait of Hormuz. Oil exports have technically recovered to pre-war volumes, which should be pushing prices down. They are not. Either the market is pricing the IRGC's threat to close the workaround routes 2CRD IRGC warns 'illicit' Hormuz routes 'will soon be blocked', or the "toll" hypothesis from earlier this week, that Gulf producers are paying Iran a cut for safe passage, is quietly baked in. Probably both.

Frontline tanker stock at $53.82 is up another 2.5 percent on the week and roughly 17 percent since early September. The shipping market continues to price a long, unresolved disruption. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 48.34 is actually slightly lower than yesterday, meaning the market is not panicking about the tanker attack or the IRGC threat, just steadily repricing risk upward over time.

Defence stocks are drifting lower again across every major name, with Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, BAE, and Rheinmetall all down on the day and all sitting well below their September levels. The market's consistent read: this war is an attrition problem, not a procurement catalyst. That is the right call for now, but a post-midterm resumption of US strikes would change it fast.

The US 10-year yield at 5.32 percent continues grinding higher. That is the bond market doing the CRS report's math before Congress does.

The CRS report gives Western publics something concrete to hold: 81 aircraft, $3.3 billion in hardware, $38 billion total in five months, and a monthly tab of $2 to $3 billion with no end date 1RTN Report reveals US aircraft losses in Iran war. That figure will land in campaign advertising within days, particularly in districts where military families are asking what the plan is.

The tanker attack on the On Peace, with 17 Indian crew members aboard, is a reminder that the human cost of Hormuz is falling disproportionately on South Asian maritime workers 7AJE Oman evacuates injured crew from attacked tanker in Strait of Hormuz. Western shipping companies employ them, Western consumers benefit from the oil they move, and Western governments are doing the diplomacy. That gap between who bears the physical risk and who holds the geopolitical leverage is unlikely to remain politically invisible in India much longer.