THE SEVEN-DAY OFFER IS ON THE TABLE. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS THE WHOLE GAME.

• Houthis struck Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a "sensitive target" in Riyadh, pushing Brent above $108 before prices eased 4AJE Oil prices jump after Yemen’s Houthis claim attacks on Saudi facilities5GDN Saudi Arabia intercepts wave of Houthi missiles as oil climbs to one-week high. Saudi coalition forces intercepted six ballistic missiles 5GDN Saudi Arabia intercepts wave of Houthi missiles as oil climbs to one-week high. Saudi authorities have not confirmed damage or casualties, which is their default pattern when strikes land. Yanbu matters disproportionately right now because it is Saudi Arabia's main alternative export route while Hormuz is closed. The timing of Houthi strikes on the one corridor keeping Saudi oil exports alive is not coincidental, whatever Tehran says about its lack of control over Houthi targeting 13CRD Saudi Arabia boosts crude flows via East - West pipeline as Yanbu exports stall.

• Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline is back online after the September drone strikes, but tanker exports from Yanbu have not restarted. Aramco is telling European refiners to wait until a "critical mass" of crude accumulates, and pressure tests must complete first 13CRD Saudi Arabia boosts crude flows via East - West pipeline as Yanbu exports stall. At least six tankers scheduled to load between September 24 and 27 have not done so 13CRD Saudi Arabia boosts crude flows via East - West pipeline as Yanbu exports stall. Aramco has already told at least two European refiners they will receive no crude in October under long-term contracts 13CRD Saudi Arabia boosts crude flows via East - West pipeline as Yanbu exports stall. This is the oil supply crunch in its most concrete form: not a disruption to an abstraction, but named refineries in Europe with no scheduled delivery.

• Chinese intelligence support has materially improved Iran's ability to strike US bases and track ships through Hormuz, according to four sources who described recent American intelligence assessments to CNN 3CNN Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say. Satellite imagery from Chinese groups helped Iran strike a US base in Jordan in July, killing three American service members, with a precision US officials say was otherwise beyond Iran's capabilities 3CNN Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say. Chinese geospatial data is also letting Iran time launches of otherwise unsophisticated heat-seeking drones at the optimal moment as ships pass through a specific bottleneck in the waterway 3CNN Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say. US officials cannot determine whether Beijing ordered this support or is tacitly permitting it 3CNN Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say. That ambiguity is doing real diplomatic work for China: it gets the benefit of Iran's leverage on oil prices without being formally accountable. One US official noted, however, that some reporting suggests China would actually prefer the strait disruptions to cease 3CNN Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say. The contradiction has not resolved.

• Eighty countries, led by Bahrain and including the EU, issued a joint condemnation of Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and of the Houthi resumption of conflict in Yemen 11IHY 80 countries issue strong condemnation of Iran. The statement called for immediate, unconditional reopening of the strait without tolls or navigational fees 11IHY 80 countries issue strong condemnation of Iran. A Gulf diplomat told Israel Hayom that a diplomatic solution is only possible if Iran is brought to its knees economically, and urged Washington not to ease sanctions pressure 11IHY 80 countries issue strong condemnation of Iran. That view is not aligned with where the UNGA corridor diplomacy is heading, which creates a problem: any deal Trump strikes with Iran will face immediate pushback from Gulf states who think the economic squeeze is working and should not be relieved.

• Latvia has formally decided to send Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) diver specialists to support US operations in the Strait of Hormuz, with its parliamentary decision already made 9FOX Foreign leader on Putin’s doorstep sounds alarm over Iran fueling Moscow’s war machine. This is a small contribution from a country of 1.84 million people, but it matters symbolically: Latvia is the first European NATO member to commit military personnel to the Hormuz operation rather than simply expressing support. South Korea, by contrast, confirmed this week that it will not deploy military assets in any form that involves engagement in the conflict 17PTV South Korea rejects Hormuz deployment plan. The coalition the US is assembling is thinner than the public rhetoric suggests.

The Houthi strikes on Yanbu did exactly what Houthi strikes on Yanbu should do: Brent spiked above $108 before pulling back to close around $106.50, and by Friday morning in Asia had slipped further to $105.77 4AJE Oil prices jump after Yemen’s Houthis claim attacks on Saudi facilities. The easing was driven by reports of the US-Iran diplomatic channel, not by any actual improvement in supply. By compile time, market data shows Brent at $96.80, a significant drop from Thursday's close. That is a big single-day move and it is almost entirely pricing-in the Hormuz proposal rather than any physical change in oil flows.

The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 54.49 is the highest it has been in this data set, which means the options market is saying: we have no idea what happens next, and we are pricing that uncertainty accordingly. The US 10-year Treasury yield has pushed to 5.186 percent, continuing its steady climb from 4.666 a month ago. That is the war's fiscal cost embedding itself in US borrowing rates in a way that is now visible and sustained.

Defence stocks are drifting lower across the board, all sitting below their August levels. The market has stopped pricing an escalation premium into weapons manufacturers. That is consistent with the diplomatic activity, but also consistent with a market that thinks the current level of conflict is the ceiling, not a floor.

The Republican political rupture over this war is now documented in the Senate chamber as well as on the campaign trail. Four GOP senators, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, voted with Democrats on a war powers resolution Thursday 10FOX 4 GOP senators rebel against Trump on Iran war, vote with Dems to rein in authority. The resolution passed the House with seven Republican defectors and would have gone to Trump's desk for an inevitable veto 10FOX 4 GOP senators rebel against Trump on Iran war, vote with Dems to rein in authority. It has no legal teeth at this vote count. But Senate Majority Leader John Thune publicly acknowledged that fuel prices are causing "voter fatigue" and called for the administration to be "laser-focused" on reopening the strait 10FOX 4 GOP senators rebel against Trump on Iran war, vote with Dems to rein in authority. When the majority leader of the president's own party says that out loud, it is worth noting.

The political pressure is specifically diesel-shaped. Three vulnerable Republicans running in toss-up races this cycle called this week for an "immediate end" to the war 10FOX 4 GOP senators rebel against Trump on Iran war, vote with Dems to rein in authority. Their districts are agricultural. Diesel is what moves farm equipment and freight, and it is what their constituents talk about at every campaign stop. A new poll shows 64 percent of Americans believe the US is not winning the war on Iran 15PTV Poll: 64% of Americans say US is not winning the war on Iran. That number, from a state media source and worth treating with appropriate caution, is at least consistent with the domestic polling trend visible in other sources.