WASHINGTON BLOCKS ISRAEL FROM BLOWING UP THE ROME TALKS

• The Hormuz deal is closer but still not signed, and Iran is making clear it will not automatically reopen the strait even if it is. Coordinates for the inbound and outbound corridors are agreed. A joint statement with Oman is in final drafting 11AJE Iran says Hormuz talks with Oman in ‘final’ stages as route approved 13GDN Understanding reached on coordinates for shipping route through Hormuz, Iran says. But Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi was explicit: the agreement "cannot in itself be interpreted as meaning the waterway has become safe for passing vessels" 6CNN Tehran denies talks with US as Iran and Oman close in on Strait of Hormuz agreement. Iran's list of preconditions still includes the US ending its naval blockade, lifting reimposed sanctions, and unfreezing Iranian assets 12MHR Reopening of Hormuz needs US cessation of its violations. Trump told Fox News the strait "is going to be open very soon" 2GDN Iran says a deal with Oman to reopen the strait of Hormuz is close to being finalised, Middle East crisis live. Iranian sources told Reuters that important details remain unresolved and pushed back on claims a deal is imminent 2GDN Iran says a deal with Oman to reopen the strait of Hormuz is close to being finalised, Middle East crisis live. These are not compatible descriptions of the same negotiation.

• Saudi Arabia has appointed a commander for its new Red Sea maritime alliance, and the Houthis immediately reminded everyone why it exists. Major General Abdullah al-Shehri will lead the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance, with a planners' meeting scheduled for 12-13 August to complete institutional setup 3CRD Saudi Arabia names commander for Red Sea military alliance. On the same day, the Yemeni Armed Forces struck the Saudi tanker Wafa with ballistic missiles off Yanbu, the eighth Saudi tanker targeted since the blockade began on 22 July 3CRD Saudi Arabia names commander for Red Sea military alliance. Twenty-nine more tankers have turned back from the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Six Saudi supertankers have rerouted around Africa entirely, adding 25 days to their voyages 3CRD Saudi Arabia names commander for Red Sea military alliance. An alliance with a commander and a planning meeting cannot stop ballistic missiles already in the air.

• The US munitions story has moved from leaked intelligence to official White House pushback, which is its own signal. The White House and Pentagon both issued statements denying dangerous shortfalls in offensive and defensive weapons 10AJE US officials push back on reports of dangerously low munitions supplies. CNN had reported that 80 percent of THAAD interceptors used prior to the war have been expended and roughly half of Patriot interceptors are gone 10AJE US officials push back on reports of dangerously low munitions supplies. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called the 80 percent THAAD figure "not true." Trump attributed the shortfall partly to Biden-era transfers to Ukraine 10AJE US officials push back on reports of dangerously low munitions supplies. When the president and defence secretary are personally refuting a stockpile story, the story is landing. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analysis from July 27 underpins the reporting and is not going away.

• Rights groups have declared an April Israeli strike in Lebanon a war crime, and the details are damaging. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Legal Agenda jointly concluded that Israel deliberately targeted Lebanese journalists Amal Khalil and Zeinab Faraj with apparent knowledge they were civilians 8GDN Israeli strike that killed journalist in Lebanon was war crime, say rights groups. The investigations found that Israeli forces dropped stun grenades on Lebanese Red Cross workers and fired on ambulances, delaying rescue for hours in a way that may have contributed to Khalil's death 8GDN Israeli strike that killed journalist in Lebanon was war crime, say rights groups. Israel said it "regrets any harm caused to journalists" and that the journalists were killed as part of operations targeting two Hezbollah operatives 8GDN Israeli strike that killed journalist in Lebanon was war crime, say rights groups. This lands during active Rome negotiations, hands Hezbollah's political allies in Beirut a propaganda asset, and adds pressure on European governments already navigating arms transfer debates.

• Big oil's profits are now a political problem for Trump. Exxon Mobil reported second-quarter profits of $14.5 billion, doubled year-on-year. Chevron nearly quadrupled profits to $12 billion. BP more than doubled to $3.9 billion. Saudi Aramco posted a 44 percent profit increase to $32.69 billion 14APW A time of massive profits for big oil with fighting in Iran shutting off a key shipping artery. Trump publicly said oil companies "made too much money" and told them to "cut the retail price" 14APW A time of massive profits for big oil with fighting in Iran shutting off a key shipping artery. This is a president who launched the war that closed the strait now complaining about the profits generated by the war he launched. The political logic is clear: with pump prices still elevated and midterms approaching, Trump needs a villain. Big oil is a more convenient target than the policy.

Gold jumped to $4,308, a sharp move from $4,134 the day before, continuing the trend from yesterday's surge. That is a war premium reasserting itself, driven by the Lebanon escalation and the growing suspicion that the Hormuz deal keeps almost happening without ever quite happening. The Gold/Oil ratio has climbed to 57.38, well above last week's 48.77 and among the highest levels of the conflict. Oil itself is drifting lower, with Brent at $79.40, down from $90 just a week ago on deal hopes. The two moves together tell you that markets are simultaneously pricing some probability of a deal on oil and substantial uncertainty about everything else on gold.

Equities are calm, with the VIX at 15.81 and the S&P 500 holding above 7,700. Defence stocks are steady to slightly higher across the board. Raytheon has quietly gained roughly ten percent since early July. Given that Raytheon manufactures Patriot interceptors and the Pentagon has just acknowledged needing to replenish close to half its inventory, that is not speculative positioning. It is procurement arithmetic.

The AP's reporting on oil company profits 14APW A time of massive profits for big oil with fighting in Iran shutting off a key shipping artery contains a detail that matters for Western households outside the Gulf: fuel supplies in parts of Asia dependent on Hormuz-routed exports have run so low that some countries have begun rationing, with sporadic school and government office closures. Western consumers have been shielded by strategic reserve releases and rerouting, but that insulation has a cost and a limit. RBOB gasoline futures are at $2.83, down from $3.22 a week ago, reflecting deal optimism. That improvement reverses quickly if the Hormuz framework stalls again.

The munitions depletion debate 10AJE US officials push back on reports of dangerously low munitions supplies carries a slow-burn implication for Europe. NATO planning assumptions have long relied on US precision-strike capability as the backstop for continental defence. That backstop now has a publicly contested price tag and a multi-year replenishment timeline. European defence spending commitments that looked like political posturing eighteen months ago are being repriced as operational necessities in real time.